Drop-Off,the Vanishing Voters in On-Year Elections,and the Incumbency Advantage

Abstract

House "drop-off" (voting for President but not for the U.S. House) has increased in the 1968-1980 period to the point that about 1 of every 11 on-year voters neglects to cast a House ballot. The increase is surprising, because many developments (e.g., fewer uncontested House seats, more third-party choices, and so on) would suggest declining, rather than increasing, drop-off. The competitiveness of the House campaign is the best predictor of drop-off, but most of the other key factors reflect characteristics of the district and the ballot, rather than the facets of the House campaign. Although the increased drop-off could have affected only a few House outcomes, it is likely responsible for part of the House incumbency advantage. Circumstantial evidence comes from a comparison of 1964 and 1980 drop-off, from a more pronounced House incumbency edge in on-year than in off-year elections, and from drop-off not increasing in Senate elections.