This article addresses the widespread notion that the decline in membership turnover in American state legislatures during the last two decades was primarily due to a decline in voluntary withdrawals from office and was unrelated to electoral competition. A theory of membership turnover is presented that incorporates electoral competition as a factor in an incumbent's decision to seek reelection and his/her ability to win. Several hypotheses are tested with data on turnover in the Indiana House of Representatives. This article departs from previous efforts in that electoral competition is measured at the district level and incumbents' decisions to run for higher office are distinguished from other forms of voluntary withdrawal.
Get full access to this article
View all access options for this article.
References
1.
ABRAMSONP. R. (1976) “Generational change and the decline of party identification in America.”Amer. Pol. Sci. Rev. 70 (June): 469–479
2.
BARBERJ. D. (1965) The Lawmakers: Recruitment and Adaption to Legislative Life. New Haven: Yale Univ. Press
3.
CALVERTJ. (1979) “Revolving doors: volunteerism in state legislatures.”State Government52 (Autumn): 174–181
4.
CRAWLEYG. L. (1982) “Turnover in American state houses: 1952–1978.” Michigan State University. (unpublished)
5.
DE VRIESW.TARRANCEL.Jr. (1972) The Ticket Splitters: A New Force in American Politics. Grand Rapids, MI: William B. Eerdmans
6.
DAWSONR. E.ROBINSONJ. A. (1963) “Inter-party competition, economic variables, and welfare policies in the American states.”J. of Politics25 (May): 265–289
7.
DYET. R. (1973) Politics in States and Communities. Englewood Cliffs, NJ: Prentice-Hall
8.
ERIKSONR. S. (1972) “Malapportionment, gerrymandering, and party fortunes in congressional elections.”Amer. Pol. Sci. Rev. 66 (December): 1234–1245
9.
ERIKSONR. S. (1978) “Constituency opinion and congressional behavior: a reexamination of the Miller-Stokes representation data.”Amer. J. of Pol. Sci. 22 (August): 511–535
10.
FENNOR. (1977) “U. S. House members in their constituencies.”Amer. Pol. Sci. Rev. 71 (September): 883–917
11.
FENTONJ. H. (1966) Midwest Politics. New York: Holt, Rhinehart & Winston
12.
FEREJONJ. A. (1977) “On the decline of competition in congressional elections.”Amer. Pol. Sci. Rev. 71 (March): 166–176
13.
FIORINAM. P. (1977) “The case of the vanishing marginals.”Amer. Pol. Sci. Rev. 71 (March): 177–181
14.
GRAUC. H. (1981) “The neglected world of state legislative elections.” Presented at the annual meeting of the Midwest Political Science Association, Cinncinnati, April 15–18
15.
GRUMMJ. G. (1971) “The effects of legislative structure on legislative performance,” in HofferbertR. I.SharkanskyI. (eds.) State and Urban Politics. Boston: Little, Brown
16.
HYNEMANC. S. (1938) “Tenure and turnover of legislative personnel.”Annals of the American Academy of Political and Social Science195 (January): 21–31
17.
JACOBSONG. C. (1978) “The effects of campaign spending in congressional elections.”Amer. Pol. Sci. Rev. 72 (June): 469–491
18.
JEWELLM.PATTERSONS. C. (1966) The Legislative Process in the United States. New York: Random House
19.
JEWELLM. E.OLSOND. M. (1978) American State Political Parties and Elections. Homewood, IL: Dorsey
20.
KEYV. O.Jr. (1949) Southern Politics in State and Nation. New York: Knopf
21.
LOCKARDD. (1966) “The state legislator,” in The American Assembly. State Legislatures in American Politics. Englewood Cliffs, NJ: Prentice-Hall
22.
MAYHEWD. (1974) “Congressional elections: the case of the vanishing marginals.”Polity6 (Spring): 295–302
23.
MAYHEWD. (1975) Congress: The Electoral Connection. New Haven: Yale Univ. Press
PRICEH. D. (1975) “Congress and the evolution of legislative professionalism,” in OrnsteinN. J. (ed.) Congress and Change. New York: Praeger
26.
RANNEYA. (1976) “Parties in state politics,” in JacobH.VinesK. (eds.) Parties in the American States: A Comparative Analysis. Boston: Little, Brown
27.
RAYD. (1974) “Membership stability in three state legislatures: 1893–1969.”Amer. Pol. Sci. Rev. 68 (March): 106–112
28.
RAYD. (1976) “Voluntary retirement and electoral defeat in eight state legislatures.”J. of Politics38 (May): 426–433
29.
RAYD.HAVICKJ. (1981) “A longitudinal analysis of party competition in state legislative elections.”Amer. J. of Pol. Sci. 25 (February): 119–128
30.
ROHDED. W. (1979) “Risk-bearing and progressive ambition: the case of members of the United States House of Representatives.”Amer. J. of Pol. Sci. 23 (February): 1–26
31.
ROSENTHALA. (1974a) “Turnover in state legislatures.”Amer. J. of Pol. Sci. 18 (August): 609–616
32.
ROSENTHALA. (1974b) Legislative Performance in the States. New York: Free Press
33.
SCHESLINGERJ. A. (1966) Ambition and Politics: Political Careers in the United States. Chicago: Rand McNally
34.
SHINK. S.JACKSONJ. S.III (1979) “Membership turnover in U. S. state legislatures: 1931–1976.”Legislative Studies Q. 4 (February): 95–104
35.
TUFTEE. (1973) “The relationship between seats and votes in two-party systems.”Amer. Pol. Sci. Rev. 67 (June): 540–554
36.
TUFTEE. (1975) “Determinants of the outcome of midterm congressional elections.”Amer. Pol. Sci. Rev. 67 (September): 812–826
37.
WAHLKEW. P.EULAUH.BUCHANANW.FERGUSONL. (1962) The Legislative System. New York: John Wiley
38.
ZELLERB. [ed.] (1954) American State Legislatures. New York: Thomas Crowell
