Election Night Projections and West Coast Turnout

Abstract

The years in which the news media make early projections for the Presidential contest are characterized by cries of outrage from losers of lower offices as well as from academics and other interested observers of the political process. Their concern seems to be that if West Coast residents who have not been to the polls learn of the outcome of the Presidential race before their polls close, they will be less likely to vote than if the outcome is still in doubt. The analysis here shows, however, that attributing a decline in Western turnout to information conveyed by the media ignores the inescapable fact that the decision to vote— on the West Coast or anywhere else—is the result of a complicated combination of factors, none of which is related to information received on election day.