Presidential and Congressional Voters Compared

Abstract

Turnout in midterm elections is about 18% lower than turnout in presidential contests. No scholars have explored in detail which types of people are most affected by this less salient electoral context. In this article we examine the similarities and differences between the 1972 and 1974 voters. We address this question with data from the Current Population Surveys conducted by the Bureau of the Census in November 1972 and November 1974. Because of the very large number of respondents, we are able to make unusually precise estimates of the effect of particular demographic variables on voting. The most prominent characteristic of a midterm election is its lower turnout; education, occupation, and income are equally strong predictors of turnout as in presidential contests. Contrary to the prevailing wisdom, the demographic composition of the midterm electorate (with the exception of age) is virtually the same as the larger presidential year electorate.