This article presents several patterns of partisan competition suggested by an interplay of long-term and short-term forces in the political system. By applying constraints to the forces, one can note the effects on the temporal properties of party competition. Each pattern has an analogue in the political parties literature and a statistical procedure for its identification. Four patterns of party competition are considered: (1) a noncompetitive pattern, (2) a trend pattern, (3) a cyclic pattern, and (4) a Poisson pattern. Using time series data on the occurrence of partisan change events for the U.S. presidency and state governorships, the authors note several expectations of the patterns.
Get full access to this article
View all access options for this article.
References
1.
Bartholomew, D.J. (1973) Stochastic Models for Social Processes. New York: John Wiley.
2.
Bean, L. (1948) How to Predict Elections. New York: Alfred A. Knopf.
3.
Beck, P.A. (1977) "Partisan dealignment in the postwar South." Amer. Pol. Sci. Rev.71 (June): 477-496.
4.
Boyd, R.W. (1972) "Popular control of public policy." Amer. Pol. Sci. Rev.66 (June): 429-449.
5.
Broh, C.A. (1973) Toward a Theory of Issue Voting. Beverly Hills: Sage Publications.
6.
——— and M.S. Levine (1974) "A stochastic analysis of partisan change and transfers of control." Presented at the Annual Meeting of the American Political Science Association, Chicago.
——— (1972) "Change in the American electorate," pp. 263-301 in A. Campbell and P. E. Converse (ed.) The Human Meaning of Social Change. New York : Russell Sage.
17.
——— (1964) "The nature of belief systems in mass publics," pp. 206-261 in D. E. Apter (ed.) Ideology and Discontent. New York: Free Press .
18.
Cox, D.R. and P.A.W. Lewis (1966) The Statistical Analysis of Series of Events. London: Methuen.
19.
David, P.T. (1972) Party Strength in the United States. Charlottesville: Univ. Press of Virginia .
20.
Elazar, D. (1966) American Federalism. New York : Thomas Y. Crowell.
Feller, W. (1950) An Introduction to Probability Theory and Its Applications . New York: John Wiley.
23.
Key, V.O. (1966) The Responsible Electorate. Cambridge: Belknap Press.
24.
——— (1959) "Secular realignment and the party system." J. of Politics21 (February): 198-210.
25.
——— (1956) American State Politics. New York: Alfred A. Knopf.
26.
——— (1953) "A theory of critical elections." J. of Politics17 (February). 3-18.
27.
——— (1949) Southern Politics in State and Nation. New York: Vintage.
28.
Ladd, E.C. and C.D. Hadley (1975) Transformations and the American Party System . New York: W. W. Norton.
29.
Lockhard, D. (1959) New England State Politics. Princeton: Princeton Univ. Press.
30.
Lowi, T. (1963) "Toward functionalism in political science." Amer. Pol. Sci. Rev.57 (September): 570-583.
31.
Macrae, D. and J.A. Meldrum (1960) "Critical elections in Illinois." Amer. Pol. Sci. Rev.54 (September): 669-683.
32.
Miller, A.H., W.E. Miller, A.S. Raine, and T. Brown (1976) "A majority party in disarray." Amer. Pol. Sci. Rev.70 (September): 753-778.
33.
Pfeiffer, D.G. (1967) "The measurement of inter-party competition and systematic stability." Amer. Pol. Sci. Rev.61 (June): 457-467.
34.
Phillips, K.P. (1969) The Emerging Republican Majority. New York: Arlington House.
35.
Pierce, C. and D.D. Rose (1974) "Nonattitudes and American public opinion." Amer. Pol. Sci. Rev.68 (June): 626-649.
36.
Pomper, G.M. (1968) Elections in America. New York : Dodd Mead.
37.
Popkin, S., J.W. Gorman, C. Phillips, and J.A. Smith (1976) "Comment: what have you done for me lately?" Amer. Pol. Sci. Rev.70 (September): 779-805.
38.
Ranney, A. (1971) "Parties in state politics," pp. 82-121 in H. Jacob and K. Vines (eds.) Politics in the American States. Boston : Little, Brown.
39.
Richmond, S.B. (1968) Operations Research for Management Decisions. New York: Ronald Press.
40.
Rose, D.D. and J.C. Pierce (1974) "Rejoinder to comment." Amer. Pol. Sci. Rev.68 (June): 661-666.
41.
Rusk, J.G. (1974) "The American electoral universe." Amer. Pol. Sci. Rev.68 (September) : 1028-1049.
42.
——— (1970) "The effect of the Australian ballot reform on split-ticket voting: 1876-1908." Amer. Pol. Sci. Rev.64 (December): 1220-1238.
43.
Schlesinger, A.M., Jr. (1971) The Coming to Power. New York: Chelsea House Publishers.
44.
Schlesinger, J.A. (1955) "A two-dimensional scheme for classifying the states according to degree of inter-party competition." Amer. Pol. Sci. Rev.59 (December): 1120-1128.
45.
Sellers, C. (1965) "The equilibrium cycle in two-party politics." Public Opinion Q.19 (Spring): 16-37.
46.
Shade, W.L. (1973) Social Change and the Electoral Process. Gainesville: Univ. of Florida Press.
47.
Siegel, S. (1956) Nonparametric Statistics for the Behavioral Sciences . New York: McGraw-Hill.
48.
Stokes, D.E. and G.R. Iverson (1966) "On the existence of forces restoring party competition ," pp. 180-193 in A. Campbell, P. E. Converse, W. E. Miller , and D. E. Stokes (eds.) Elections and the Political Order. New York: John Wiley.
49.
Straetz, R.A. and F. Munger (1960) New York Politics. New York : New York Univ. Press.
50.
Sundquist, J.L. (1973) Dynamics of the Party System. Washington, DC: Brookings Institutions.
51.
Tindall, G.B. (1972) The Disruption of the Solid South. Athens: Univ. of Georgia Press.
52.
Turner, H.A. and J.A. Vieg (1964) The Government and Politics of California. New York: McGraw-Hill.
53.
Walker, J.L. (1969) "The diffusion of innovations among the American states." Amer. Pol. Sci. Rev.63 (September): 880-899.
