Educational Polarization in American Politics: More than Just a Diploma Divide

Abstract

The American electorate is divided along educational lines. The 2024 presidential election was marked by the largest-ever educational divide in vote choice. Typically, we frame this divide as a split between people with college degrees and those without. In this paper, I argue that there is significant polarization along the entire educational attainment spectrum. I show that the divide between BA and graduate degree holders is just as pronounced on many dimensions as the divide between BA holders and high school graduates. This point is especially critical because graduate degree holders are the fastest-growing educational category, moving from 9% of the population in 2000 to 14.5% today. I use ANES and US Census data to show that educational polarization encompasses political attitudes, engagement, and vote choice. As people become more educated, they become more liberal on social, cultural, and economic issues, become more likely to participate in politics, and support the Democrats. I also show that educational polarization combined with demographic changes has dramatically reshaped the party coalitions, with the Democratic Party’s base becoming more educated while the Republican coalition is little changed. I also show that the proportion of the population with a graduate degree was one of the strongest demographic predictors of county-level vote share in the 2024 election. All told, the American electorate is polarized along the entire educational attainment spectrum.