Mail Voting as a Tool to Avoid Voter Intimidation and Hate Crimes

Abstract

In this study, we examine if and how exposure to hate crimes is associated with the method of vote utilized by African American voters in the 2016 general election. Specifically, we are interested in how exposure to heightened levels of hate crimes at the county-level influences African Americans’ decision to vote-by-mail (VBM) as opposed to in-person (either early or election day voting). We examine the question using the 2016 Collaborative Multiracial Post-Election Survey and FBI county-level hate crime data (2013–2016). The FBI Uniform Crime Report hate crime dataset provides information on the physical location of the hate crime events. We merge the hate crime data with the CMPS data to examine if and how heightened rates of hate crime affect choice of voting mode. Consistent with expectations, we find that African Americans living in areas with higher levels of hate crimes are more likely to vote-by- mail rather than in person, potentially as a way to avoid the risk of encountering hate crimes.

Keywords

hate crime voting method African American political participation

Get full access to this article

View all access options for this article.

References

Alvarez

Levin

Sinclair

(2012). Making voting easier: Convenience voting in the 2008 presidential election. Political Research Quarterly, 65(2), 248–262. https://doi.org/10.1177/1065912911398048

Alvarez

R. M.

Hall

T. E.

Sinclair

(2008). Whose absentee votes are returned and counted? The variety and use of absentee ballots in California. Electoral Studies, 27(4), 673–683. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.electstud.2008.05.007

Barreto

M. A.

Frasure-Yokley

Vargas

Wong

(2017). Collaborative Multi-racial Post-election Survey (CMPS), United States, 2016. Inter-university Consortium for Political and Social Research [distributor], 2022-05-03. https://doi.org/10.3886/ICPSR38040.v2

Barreto

M. A.

Frasure-Yokley

Vargas

Wong

(2018). Best Practices in collecting online data with Asian, African American, Latino, and white respondents: Evidence from the 2016 collaborative multiracial post-Election survey. Politics, Groups, and Identities, 6(1), 171–180. https://doi.org/10.1080/21565503.2017.1419433

Barringer

Herron

M. C.

Smith

D. A.

(2020). Voting by mail and ballot rejection: Lessons from Florida for elections in the age of coronavirus. Election Law Journal, 19(3), 289–320. https://doi.org/10.1089/elj.2020.0658

Bateson

(2012). Crime victimization and political participation. The American Political Science Review, 106(3), 570–587. https://doi.org/10.1017/s0003055412000299. https://www.jstor.org/stable/23275434

Berinsky

(2005). The perverse consequences of electoral reform in the United States. American Politics Research, 33(4), 471–491. https://doi.org/10.1177/1532673x04269419

Bowler

Todd

(2018). Partisan predispositions and public support for making it easier to vote. American Politics Research, 46(6), 971–995. https://doi.org/10.1177/1532673x18763875

Brennan Center for Justice . (2024). Voting Laws Roundup: September 2024. https://sage.proofcentral.com/en-us/index.html?token=f7a25fa60733e0a685c1f058e25cf8, last accessed December 1, 2025.

10.

Cottrell

Herron

M. C.

Smith

D. A.

(2021). Vote-by-mail ballot rejection and experience with mail-in voting. American Politics Research, 49(6), 577–590. https://doi.org/10.1177/1532673X2110226

11.

Dalton

R. J.

(2020). The good citizen: How a younger generation is reshaping American politics. CQ Press.

12.

Devine

Griffin

(2018). Georgia county tosses out hundreds of minority absentee ballots. CNNPolitics. 21 October 2018. https://www.cnn.com/2018/10/20/politics/gwinnett-county-absentee-ballots/index.html

13.

Díaz-Faes

D. A.

Pereda

(2022). Is there such a thing as a hate crime paradigm? An integrated review of bias-motivated violent victimization and offending, Its effects and underlying mechanisms. Trauma, Violence, & Abuse, 23(3), 938–952. https://doi.org/10.1177/1524838020979694

14.

Dominguez

Vargas

Sanchez

(2020). Voting in a pandemic: Explaining variation in support for absentee ballots for all. Politics & Gender, 16(4), 1093–1100. https://doi.org/10.1017/S1743923X20000641

15.

Dyck

J. J.

Gimpel

J. G.

(2005). Distance, turnout, and the convenience of voting. Social Science Quarterly, 86(3), 531–548. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.0038-4941.2005.00316.x

16.

Fortier

J. C.

(2006). Absentee and early voting: Trends, promises, and perils. The AEI Press.

17.

Garnett

H. A.

Bordeleau

J. -N.

Stephenson

Allison

(2023). Contagious elections: The influence of COVID-19 on comfort in voting in Canadian provincial elections. Election Law Journal, 22(2), 117–128. https://doi.org/10.1089/elj.2022.0062

18.

Gronke

Galanes-Rosenbaum

Miller

P. A.

Toffey

(2008). Convenience voting. Annual Review of Political Science, 11(1), 437–455. https://doi.org/10.1146/annurev.polisci.11.053006.190912

19.

Hanmer

Kalkan

K. O.

(2013). Behind the curve: Clarifying the best approach to calculating predicted probabilities and marginal effects from limited dependent variable models. American Journal of Political Science, 57(1), 263–277. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1540-5907.2012.00602.x

20.

Herron

M. C.

Smith

D. A.

(2012). Souls to the polls: Early voting in Florida in the shadow of house bill 1355. Election Law Journal, 11(3), 331–347. https://doi.org/10.1089/elj.2012.0157

21.

Herron

M. C.

Smith

D. A.

(2014). Race, party, and the consequences of restricting early voting in Florida in the 2012 general election. Political Research Quarterly, 67(3), 646–665. https://doi.org/10.1177/1065912914524831

22.

Holder

(2025). An assessment of geographically mediated racial threat and racially motivated hate crime: A county-level analysis. Crime and Delinquency. Online First published May 14, 2025. https://doi.org/10.1177/00111287251339645

23.

Iganski

(2001). Hate crimes hurt more. American Behavioral Scientist, 45(4), 626–638. https://doi.org/10.1177/0002764201045004006

24.

Jones

D. B.

Werner

Walsh

(2017). Political participation in a violent society: The impact of lynching on voter turnout in the post-reconstruction south. Journal of Development Economics, 129, 29–46. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jdeveco.2017.08.001

25.

Karp

J. A.

Banducci

S. A.

(2001). Absentee voting, mobilization, and participation. American Politics Research, 29(2), 183–195. https://doi.org/10.1177/1532673X01029002003

26.

Kousser

Mullin

(2007). Does voting by mail increase participation? Using matching to analyze a natural experiment. Political Analysis, 15(4), 428–445. https://doi.org/10.1093/pan/mpm014

27.

Kuhlmann

Lewis

D. C.

(2022). Making the vote (in)Accessible: Election administration laws and turnout among people with disabilities. Politics, Groups, and Identities, 12(1), 107–123. https://doi.org/10.1080/21565503.2022.2137049

28.

Lawyers Committee for Civil Rights Under Law and the James Byrd Jr. Center to Stop Hate . (2020). Hate in elections: How racism and bigotry threaten election integrity in the United States. https://www.lawyerscommittee.org last accessed September 29, 2024.

29.

Leadership Conference Education Fund . (2023). Cause for concern 2024: The state of hate. https://civilrights.org/edfund/resource/2024-state-of-hate/ last accessed September 29, 2024.

30.

Leighley

Jan E.

Nagler

(2014). Who votes now? Demographics, issues, inequality, and turnout in the United States. Princeton University Press.

31.

Marsh

W. C. Z.

(2023). Trauma and turnout: The political consequences of traumatic events. American Political Science Review, 117(3), 1036–1052. https://doi.org/10.1017/s0003055422001010

32.

McDonald

M. P.

Mucci

J. K.

Shino

Smith

D. A.

(2024). Mail voting and voter turnout. Election Law Journal, 23(1), 1–18. https://doi.org/10.1089/elj.2022.0078

33.

Monroe

Sylvester

(2011). Who converts to vote-by-mail? Evidence from a field experiment. Election Law Journal, 10(1), 15–35. https://doi.org/10.1089/elj.2009.0058

34.

Oliver

(1996). The effects of eligibility restrictions and party activity on absentee voting and overall turnout. American Journal of Political Science, 40(2), 498–513. https://doi.org/10.2307/2111634

35.

Parker

Eisler

(21 Oct 2024). New cases of political violence roil U.S. ahead of contentious election. Reuters.

36.

Perry

Alvi

(2012). ’We are all vulnerable’: The in terrorem effects of Hate crimes. International Review of Victimology, 18(1), 57–71. https://doi.org/10.1177/0269758011422475

37.

Plescia

Sevi

Blais

(2021). Who likes to vote by mail? American Politics Research, 49(4), 381–385. https://doi.org/10.1177/1532673x211005684

38.

Rae

(1967). The political consequences of electoral laws. Yale University Press.

39.

Shino

Suttmann-Lea

Smith

D. A.

(2022). Determinants of rejected mail ballots in Georgia’s 2018 general election. Political Research Quarterly, 75(1), 231–243. https://doi.org/10.1177/1065912921993537

40.

Suttmann-Lea

Merivaki

(2022). Don’t drown the message: The effects of voter education on mail ballot acceptance in North Carolina. Journal of Election Administration Research & Practice, 1(2), 69–95.

41.

Thompson

J. A.

Yoder

Hall

A. B.

(2020). Universal vote-by-mail has no impact on partisan turnout or vote share. PNAS, 117(25), 14052–14056. https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.2007249117

42.

Valentino

N. A.

Neuner

F. G.

(2017). Why the sky didn’t fall: Mobilizing anger in reaction to voter ID laws. Political Psychology, 38(2), 331–350. https://doi.org/10.1111/pops.12332

43.

Wattenberg

M. P.

(2024). Is voting for young people? Routledge.

44.

Wickes

Sydes

Benier

Higginson

(2017). Seeing’ hate crime in the community: Do resident perceptions of hate crime align with self-reported victimization? Crime & Delinquency, 63(7), 875–896. https://doi.org/10.1177/0011128715625079