In this study, we examine if and how exposure to hate crimes is associated with the method of vote utilized by African American voters in the 2016 general election. Specifically, we are interested in how exposure to heightened levels of hate crimes at the county-level influences African Americans’ decision to vote-by-mail (VBM) as opposed to in-person (either early or election day voting). We examine the question using the 2016 Collaborative Multiracial Post-Election Survey and FBI county-level hate crime data (2013–2016). The FBI Uniform Crime Report hate crime dataset provides information on the physical location of the hate crime events. We merge the hate crime data with the CMPS data to examine if and how heightened rates of hate crime affect choice of voting mode. Consistent with expectations, we find that African Americans living in areas with higher levels of hate crimes are more likely to vote-by- mail rather than in person, potentially as a way to avoid the risk of encountering hate crimes.
AlvarezM.LevinI.SinclairA. (2012). Making voting easier: Convenience voting in the 2008 presidential election. Political Research Quarterly, 65(2), 248–262. https://doi.org/10.1177/1065912911398048
2.
AlvarezR. M.HallT. E.SinclairB. (2008). Whose absentee votes are returned and counted? The variety and use of absentee ballots in California. Electoral Studies, 27(4), 673–683. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.electstud.2008.05.007
3.
BarretoM. A.Frasure-YokleyL.VargasE.WongJ. (2017). Collaborative Multi-racial Post-election Survey (CMPS), United States, 2016. Inter-university Consortium for Political and Social Research [distributor], 2022-05-03. https://doi.org/10.3886/ICPSR38040.v2
4.
BarretoM. A.Frasure-YokleyL.VargasE.WongJ. (2018). Best Practices in collecting online data with Asian, African American, Latino, and white respondents: Evidence from the 2016 collaborative multiracial post-Election survey. Politics, Groups, and Identities, 6(1), 171–180. https://doi.org/10.1080/21565503.2017.1419433
5.
BarringerA.HerronM. C.SmithD. A. (2020). Voting by mail and ballot rejection: Lessons from Florida for elections in the age of coronavirus. Election Law Journal, 19(3), 289–320. https://doi.org/10.1089/elj.2020.0658
BerinskyA. (2005). The perverse consequences of electoral reform in the United States. American Politics Research, 33(4), 471–491. https://doi.org/10.1177/1532673x04269419
8.
BowlerS.ToddD. (2018). Partisan predispositions and public support for making it easier to vote. American Politics Research, 46(6), 971–995. https://doi.org/10.1177/1532673x18763875
CottrellD.HerronM. C.SmithD. A. (2021). Vote-by-mail ballot rejection and experience with mail-in voting. American Politics Research, 49(6), 577–590. https://doi.org/10.1177/1532673X2110226
11.
DaltonR. J. (2020). The good citizen: How a younger generation is reshaping American politics. CQ Press.
Díaz-FaesD. A.PeredaN. (2022). Is there such a thing as a hate crime paradigm? An integrated review of bias-motivated violent victimization and offending, Its effects and underlying mechanisms. Trauma, Violence, & Abuse, 23(3), 938–952. https://doi.org/10.1177/1524838020979694
14.
DominguezM.VargasE.SanchezG. (2020). Voting in a pandemic: Explaining variation in support for absentee ballots for all. Politics & Gender, 16(4), 1093–1100. https://doi.org/10.1017/S1743923X20000641
FortierJ. C. (2006). Absentee and early voting: Trends, promises, and perils. The AEI Press.
17.
GarnettH. A.BordeleauJ. -N.StephensonL.AllisonH. (2023). Contagious elections: The influence of COVID-19 on comfort in voting in Canadian provincial elections. Election Law Journal, 22(2), 117–128. https://doi.org/10.1089/elj.2022.0062
HanmerM.KalkanK. O. (2013). Behind the curve: Clarifying the best approach to calculating predicted probabilities and marginal effects from limited dependent variable models. American Journal of Political Science, 57(1), 263–277. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1540-5907.2012.00602.x
20.
HerronM. C.SmithD. A. (2012). Souls to the polls: Early voting in Florida in the shadow of house bill 1355. Election Law Journal, 11(3), 331–347. https://doi.org/10.1089/elj.2012.0157
21.
HerronM. C.SmithD. A. (2014). Race, party, and the consequences of restricting early voting in Florida in the 2012 general election. Political Research Quarterly, 67(3), 646–665. https://doi.org/10.1177/1065912914524831
22.
HolderE. (2025). An assessment of geographically mediated racial threat and racially motivated hate crime: A county-level analysis. Crime and Delinquency. Online First published May 14, 2025. https://doi.org/10.1177/00111287251339645
JonesD. B.WernerT.WalshR. (2017). Political participation in a violent society: The impact of lynching on voter turnout in the post-reconstruction south. Journal of Development Economics, 129, 29–46. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jdeveco.2017.08.001
KousserT.MullinM. (2007). Does voting by mail increase participation? Using matching to analyze a natural experiment. Political Analysis, 15(4), 428–445. https://doi.org/10.1093/pan/mpm014
27.
KuhlmannR.LewisD. C. (2022). Making the vote (in)Accessible: Election administration laws and turnout among people with disabilities. Politics, Groups, and Identities, 12(1), 107–123. https://doi.org/10.1080/21565503.2022.2137049
28.
Lawyers Committee for Civil Rights Under Law and the James Byrd Jr. Center to Stop Hate. (2020). Hate in elections: How racism and bigotry threaten election integrity in the United States. https://www.lawyerscommittee.orglast accessed September 29, 2024.
LeighleyJan E.NaglerJ. (2014). Who votes now? Demographics, issues, inequality, and turnout in the United States. Princeton University Press.
31.
MarshW. C. Z. (2023). Trauma and turnout: The political consequences of traumatic events. American Political Science Review, 117(3), 1036–1052. https://doi.org/10.1017/s0003055422001010
32.
McDonaldM. P.MucciJ. K.ShinoE.SmithD. A. (2024). Mail voting and voter turnout. Election Law Journal, 23(1), 1–18. https://doi.org/10.1089/elj.2022.0078
33.
MonroeN.SylvesterD. (2011). Who converts to vote-by-mail? Evidence from a field experiment. Election Law Journal, 10(1), 15–35. https://doi.org/10.1089/elj.2009.0058
34.
OliverE. (1996). The effects of eligibility restrictions and party activity on absentee voting and overall turnout. American Journal of Political Science, 40(2), 498–513. https://doi.org/10.2307/2111634
35.
ParkerN.EislerP. (21 Oct 2024). New cases of political violence roil U.S. ahead of contentious election. Reuters.
36.
PerryB.AlviS. (2012). ’We are all vulnerable’: The in terrorem effects of Hate crimes. International Review of Victimology, 18(1), 57–71. https://doi.org/10.1177/0269758011422475
RaeD. (1967). The political consequences of electoral laws. Yale University Press.
39.
ShinoE.Suttmann-LeaM.SmithD. A. (2022). Determinants of rejected mail ballots in Georgia’s 2018 general election. Political Research Quarterly, 75(1), 231–243. https://doi.org/10.1177/1065912921993537
40.
Suttmann-LeaM.MerivakiT. (2022). Don’t drown the message: The effects of voter education on mail ballot acceptance in North Carolina. Journal of Election Administration Research & Practice, 1(2), 69–95.
41.
ThompsonD.WuJ. A.YoderJ.HallA. B. (2020). Universal vote-by-mail has no impact on partisan turnout or vote share. PNAS, 117(25), 14052–14056. https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.2007249117
42.
ValentinoN. A.NeunerF. G. (2017). Why the sky didn’t fall: Mobilizing anger in reaction to voter ID laws. Political Psychology, 38(2), 331–350. https://doi.org/10.1111/pops.12332
43.
WattenbergM. P. (2024). Is voting for young people?Routledge.
44.
WickesR.SydesM.BenierK.HigginsonA. (2017). Seeing’ hate crime in the community: Do resident perceptions of hate crime align with self-reported victimization?Crime & Delinquency, 63(7), 875–896. https://doi.org/10.1177/0011128715625079
