Sage Journals: Discover world-class research

Abstract

The COVID-19 pandemic was a defining feature of the 2020 election. It led many states to revamp their voting policies and some voters to change the modality they use to cast a ballot. Whether COVID-related health concerns or state voting policies influenced political campaigns remains an important, but unanswered question. This study assesses the pandemic’s influence on US House candidates’ spending strategies using a dataset comprising itemized campaign expenditures, COVID mortality rates, state voting policies, candidate attributes, district partisanship, and other contextual variables. This study demonstrates that, despite these unprecedented shocks, the campaigns waged in 2020 were remarkably similar to campaigns in preceding elections.

Keywords

COVID-19 campaign strategy and spending congressional elections voting policies election administration

Get full access to this article

View all access options for this article.

References

Algara

Sharif

Collitt

Hale

Kazemian

(2022). Nail in the coffin or lifeline? Evaluating the electoral impact of COVID 19 on president Trump in the 2020 election. Political Behavior. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11109-022-09826-x

Alvarez

R. M.

Rae Atkeson

Hall

T. E.

(2013). Evaluating elections: A. Handbook of methods and standards: Cambridge University Press.

Amlani

Collitt

(2022). The impact of vote-by-mail policy on turnout and vote share in the 2020 election. Election Law Journal: Rules, Politics, and Policy, 21(2), 135–149. https://doi.org/10.1089/elj.2021.0015

Atkeson

L. R.

Wendy

L. H.

Maggie

O. T.

Cherie

D. M.

Eric

C. W.

(2022). Should I Vote-by-Mail or in Person? The Impact of COVID-19 Risk Factors and Partisanship on Vote Mode Decisions in the 2020 Presidential Election. PLoS One, 17(9). https://journals.plos.org/plosone/article?id=10.1371/journal.pone.0274357S.

Baccini

Abel

Weymouth

(2021). “The COVID-19 pandemic and the 2020 US presidential election”. Journal of Population Economics, 34(2), 739–767. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00148-020-00820-3

Barber

Holbein

J. B.

(2020). The participatory and partisan impacts of mandatory vote-by-mail. Science Advances, 6(35), eabc7685. https://doi.org/10.1126/sciadv.abc7685

Berinsky

A. J.

Burns

Traugott

M. W.

(2001). Who votes by mail? A dynamic model of the individual-level consequences of voting-by-mail systems. Public Opinion Quarterly, 65(2), 178–197. https://doi.org/10.1086/322196

Bisbee

Lee

D. D. I.

(2022). Objective facts and elite cues: Partisan responses to covid- 19. The Journal of Politics, 84(3), 1278–1291. https://doi.org/10.1086/716969

Bokemper

S. E.

Huber

G. A.

Gerber

A. S.

(2023). Health risks and voting: Emphasizing safety measures taken to prevent COVID-19 does not increase willingness to vote in person. American Politics Research, 51(5), 588–598. https://doi.org/10.1177/1532673X231168354

10.

Brady

H. E.

McNulty

J. E.

(2011). Turning out to vote: The costs of finding and getting to the polling place. American Political Science Review, 105(1), 115–134. https://doi.org/10.1017/s0003055410000596

11.

Burden

B. C.

Canon

D. T.

Mayer

K. R.

Moynihan

D. P.

(2014). Election laws, mobilization, and turnout: The unanticipated consequences of election reform. American Journal of Political Science, 58(1), 95–109. https://doi.org/10.1111/ajps.12063

12.

Clinton

J. D.

Lapinski

Lentz

Pettigrew

(2022). Trumped by Trump? Public support for mail voting in response to the COVID-19 pandemic. Election Law Journal: Rules, Politics, and Policy, 21(1), 19–33. https://doi.org/10.1089/elj.2020.0671

13.

Congressional Research Service (2020). COVID-19 and other election emergencies: Frequently. Asked questions and recent policy developments. Congressional. Washington, DC (Research Service).

14.

Corvalan

Cox

(2018). The impact of procedural information costs on voting: Evidence from a natural experiment in Chile. Political Behavior, 40(1), 3–19. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11109-017-9389-5

15.

Dunn

(2020). Only 24% of Trump supporters view the coronavirus outbreak as a ‘very important’ voting issue. Pew Research Center. https://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2020/10/21/only-24-of-trump-supporters-view-the-coronavirus-outbreak-as-a-very-important-voting-issue/ (accessed 12 February 2021).

16.

Flanders

W. D.

Author Goodman

(2020). The association of voter turnout with county-level coronavirus disease 2019 occurrence early in the pandemic. Annals of Epidemiology, 49, 42-49. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.annepidem.2020.06.011

17.

Gerber

A. S.

Green

D. P.

(2023). Get out the vote: Brookings Institution.

18.

Gerber

A. S.

Huber

G. A.

Hill

S. J.

(2013). Identifying the effect of all-mail elections on turnout: Staggered reform in the evergreen state. Political Science Research and Methods, 1(1), 91–116. https://doi.org/10.1017/psrm.2013.5

19.

Giammo

J. D.

Brox

B. J.

(2010). Reducing the costs of participation: Are states getting a return on early voting? Political Research Quarterly, 63(2), 295–303. https://doi.org/10.1177/1065912908327605

20.

Grimmer

Hersh

(2023). How election rules affect who wins. Presented at the Boston-Cambridge Election Science Working Group 21 September.

21.

Gronke

Galanes-Rosenbaum

Miller

(2007). Early voting and turnout. PS: Political Science & Politics, 40(4), 639–645. https://doi.org/10.1017/s1049096507071028

22.

Gronke

Miller

(2012). Voting by mail and turnout in Oregon: Revisiting Southwell and Burchett. American Politics Research, 40(6), 976–997. https://doi.org/10.1177/1532673x12457809

23.

Gronke

Toffey

D. K.

(2008). The psychological and institutional determinants of early voting. Journal of Social Issues, 64(3), 503–524.

24.

Hale

McNeal

(2010). Election administration reform and state choice: Voter identification requirements and HAVA. Policy Studies Journal, 38(2), 281–302. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1541-0072.2010.00362.x

25.

Hassell

(2017). Teaching voters new tricks: The effect of partisan absentee vote- by-mail get-out-the vote efforts. Research & Politics, 4v(January-March), 1–6. https://doi.org/10.1177/2053168017694806

26.

Heberlig

E. S.

Larson

B. A.

(2012). Congressional parties, institutional ambition, and the financing of majority control: University of Michigan Press.

27.

Herrnson

P. S.

Hanmer

M. J.

Weil

Orey

(2022). The impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on election administration, voting options, and turnout in the 2020 US election. Publius: The Journal of Federalism, 52(3), 452–475. https://doi.org/10.1093/publius/pjac012

28.

Herrnson

P. S.

Hunt

C. R.

Kettler

J. J.

(2022). TVive la Différence? Is There aGender Gap in Campaign Strategy and Spending, and Does it Matter? Journal of Women, Politics & Policy, 43:(4), 463–482. https://doi.org/10.1080/1554477x.2022.2030893

29.

Herrnson

P. S.

Panagopoulos

Bailey

K. L.

(2020). Congressional elections: Campaigning at home and in Washington, 8th ed: CQ Press.

30.

Herrnson

P. S.

Stewart

III (2023). The impact of the pandemic, election policies, and partisanship on voter participation in the 2020 US election. Election Law Journal: Rules, Politics, and Policy, 22(2), 129–144. https://doi.org/10.1089/elj.2022.0074

31.

Herron

M. C.

Smith

D. A.

(2014). Race, party, and the consequences of restricting early voting in Florida in the 2012 general election. Political Research Quarterly, 67(3), 646–665. https://doi.org/10.1177/1065912914524831

32.

Kamisar

Holzberg

(2020). Poll: Majority still fears virus exposure as Trump says not to be afraid. NBCNews.com. https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2020-election/poll-majority-still-fears-virus-exposure-trump-says-not-be-n1242195

33.

Karp

J. A.

Banducci

S. A.

(2000). Going postal: How all-mail elections influence turnout. Political Behavior, 22(3), 223–239. https://doi.org/10.1023/a:1026662130163

34.

Kousser

Mullin

(2007). Does voting by mail increase participation? UsingMatching to analyze a natural experiment. Political Analysis, 15(4): 428–445. https://doi.org/10.1093/pan/mpm014

35.

Larocca

Klemanski

J. S.

(2011). US state election reform and turnout in presidential elections. State Politics and Policy Quarterly, 11(1), 76–101. https://doi.org/10.1177/1532440010387401

36.

Leighley

J. E.

Jonathan

(2013). Who votes now?: Princeton University Press.

37.

Limbocker

You

H. Y.

(2020). Campaign Style: Candidates’ expenditure allocation strategies in the U.S. House, 2003-2014. Electoral Studies. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.electstud.2020.102140

38.

Lockhart

Hill

S. J.

Merolla

Romero

Kousser

(2020). America’s electorate is increasingly polarized along partisan lines about voting by mail during the COVID-19 Crisis. Proceedings of the national academy of Sciences. https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.2008023117

39.

McGhee

Paluch

Romero

(2020). How greater vote-by-mail influences California voter turnout: Public Policy Institute of California. https://www.ppic.org/wp-content/uploads/how-greater-vote-by-mail-influences-california-voter-turnout-september-2020.pdf

40.

Morris

Miller

(2021). Voting in a pandemic: COVID-19 and primary turnout in Milwaukee, Wisconsin. Urban Affairs Review, 58(2), 597–613. https://doi.org/10.1177/10780874211005016

41.

Parzuchowski

A. S.

Peters

A. T.

P Johnson-Sasso

Rydland

K. J.

Feinglass

J. M.

(2021). County-level association of COVID-19 mortality with 2020 United States presidential voting. Public Health, 198, 114–117. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.puhe.2021.06.011

42.

Ritter

Tolbert

C. J.

(2020). Accessible elections: How the states can help Americans vote: Oxford University Press.

43.

Scheller

D. S.

(2021). Pandemic primary: The interactive effects of COVID-19 prevalence and age on voter turnout. Journal of Elections, Public Opinion, and Parties, 31(sup1), 180–190. https://doi.org/10.1080/17457289.2021.1924728

44.

Shino

Smith

D. A.

Uribe

(2023). Lying for Trump? Elite cue-taking and expressive responding on vote method. Public Opinion Quarterly, 86(4), 837–861. https://doi.org/10.1093/poq/nfac045

45.

Southwell

P. L.

(2009). Analysis of the turnout effects of vote by mail elections, 1980 –2007. The Social Science Journal, 46(1), 211–217. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.soscij.2008.12.010

46.

Southwell

P. L.

Burchett

J. I.

(2000). The effect of all-mail elections on voter turnout. American Politics Quarterly, 28(1), 72–79. https://doi.org/10.1177/1532673x00028001004

47.

Stein

R. M.

(1998). Introduction: Early voting. Public Opinion Quarterly, 62(1), 57–69. https://doi.org/10.1086/297831

48.

Stein

R. M.

Greg

(2008). Engaging the unengaged voter: Vote centers and voter turnout. The Journal of Politics, 70(2), 487–497.

49.

Thompson

D. M.

J. A.

Yoder

Hall

A. B.

(2020). Universal vote- by-mail has No impact on partisan turnout or vote share. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, 117(25), 14052–14056. https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.2007249117

50.

Whitt

Yanus

A. B.

McDonald

Kifer

(2024). Partisan risk tolerance for in-person voting during the pandemic: Survey evidence from the U.S. 2020 election. International Journal of Public Opinion Research, 36(1), edad046. https://doi.org/10.1093/ijpor/edad046

Supplementary Material

Please find the following supplemental material available below.

For Open Access articles published under a Creative Commons License, all supplemental material carries the same license as the article it is associated with.

For non-Open Access articles published, all supplemental material carries a non-exclusive license, and permission requests for re-use of supplemental material or any part of supplemental material shall be sent directly to the copyright owner as specified in the copyright notice associated with the article.

0.00 MB

0.51 MB

Campaigning During a Crisis: The Pandemic’s Impact on Congressional Campaign Strategy and Spending in 2020

Abstract

Keywords

Get full access to this article

References

Supplementary Material