Who Will Survive?

Abstract

Some congressional observers fear that unethical members are too insulated from electoral defeat. To estimate the security of unethical members, this article examines the survivability of members who have been accused of unethical behavior since 1977. Although most members who have been accused can survive one election cycle, most are unable to survive two election cycles. As a way of evaluating the ethics process, this article examines which members leave. If the current system removes unethical members, then members who have been found guilty of severe offenses should be more apt to leave than others. The severity of members' offenses did affect their ability to survive, but only significantly so in the long term. The findings show that electoral security plays the dominant role in members' survivability. Other factors affecting which members leave include institutional power, media coverage, the nature of the times, and a member's age.