Foundational studies in political science endeavored to explain the dynamics of voter turnout in America over time. Two theories, one focused on legal-institutional factors and the other on behavioral elements such as party mobilization strategies, were born from the need to account for temporal fluctuations in aggregate voter turnout. A comprehensive test of these competing theories has been hindered by the fact that reliable measures of the behavioral factors driving turnout have proven elusive. In this article, I develop and test an interactive theory of voter turnout that focuses on the impact of legal-institutional barriers to the franchise conditional on party organizational strength and mobilization efforts. To this end, I use data on the circulation of party-sponsored newspapers, coupled with information on the spread of voter registration requirements, to capture the effects of both behavioral and legal-institutional factors in Pennsylvania between 1876 and 1948. My results offer modest empirical support for an interactive theory of aggregate voter turnout. In isolation, however, the effects of behavioral factors are quite limited. On the contrary, legal-institutional variables exert a sizable impact on voter turnout in the state. Contrary to other recent work on the subject, careful analysis of the Pennsylvania case therefore provides a great deal of evidence in favor of legal-institutional accounts of the changes in aggregate voter turnout that were witnessed at the beginning of the twentieth century while demonstrating that behavioral factors, such as the decline of the partisan press, served to enhance the deleterious effects of legal reforms on turnout.
AlbrightSpencer A.1942. The American Ballot. Washington, DC: American Council on Public Affairs.
2.
AlderferHarold FreedLuhrsFannette H.1948. Registration in Pennsylvania Elections, 1926-1946. State College: The Pennsylvania Municipal Publications Service.
3.
AldrichJohn H.2011. Why Parties? A Second Look. Chicago: University of Chicago Press.
4.
AllenPhilip Loring. 1906. “Ballot Laws and Their Workings.” Political Science Quarterly21 (1): 38–58.
5.
AnsolabehereStephenKoniskyDavid M.2006. “The Introduction of Voter Registration and Its Effect on Turnout.” Political Analysis14 (1): 83–100.
6.
BurdenBarry C.NeiheiselJacob R.2013. “Election Administration and the Pure Effect of Voter Registration on Turnout.” Political Research Quarterly66 (1): 77–90.
7.
BurnhamWalter Dean. 1965. “The Changing Shape of the American Political Universe.” American Political Science Review59 (1): 7–28.
8.
BurnhamWalter Dean. 1970. Critical Elections and the Mainsprings of American Politics. New York: W.W. Norton.
9.
BurnhamWalter Dean. 1974a. “Rejoinder to ‘Comments’ by Philip Converse and Jerrold Rusk.” American Political Science Review68 (3): 1050–57.
10.
BurnhamWalter Dean. 1974b. “Theory and Voting Research: Some Reflections on Converse’s ‘Change in the American Electorate.’”American Political Science Review68 (3): 1002–1023.
11.
BurnhamWalter Dean. 1986. “Those High Nineteenth-Century American Voting Turnouts: Fact or Fiction?”Journal of Interdisciplinary History16 (4): 613–44.
12.
CarsonJamie L.HoodM. V.III. 2014. “Candidates, Competition, and the Partisan Press: Congressional Elections in the Early Antebellum Era.” American Politics Research42 (5): 760–83.
13.
ClarkTom S.LinzerDrew A.2015. “Should I Use Fixed or Random Effects?”Political Science Research and Methods3 (2): 399–408.
14.
ConversePhilip E. 1972. “Change in the American Electorate.” Pp. 263–337. In The Human Meaning of Social Change, eds. CampbellAngusConversePhilip E.New York: Sage.
15.
ConversePhilip E.1974. “Comment on Burnham’s ‘Theory and Voting Research.’”American Political Science Review68 (3): 1024–27.
16.
CoxGary W.KousserJ. Morgan. 1981. “Turnout and Rural Corruption: New York as a Test Case.” American Journal of Political Science25 (4): 646–63.
17.
DuganWilliam E.TaggartWilliam A.1995. “The Changing Shape of the American Political Universe Revisited.” Journal of Politics57 (2): 469–82.
18.
EngstromErik J.2012. “The Rise and Decline of Turnout in Congressional Elections: Electoral Institutions, Competition, and Strategic Mobilization.” American Journal of Political Science56 (2): 373–86.
19.
EngstromErik J.KernellSamuel. 2005. “Manufactured Responsiveness: The Impact of State Electoral Laws on Unified Party Control of the Presidency and House of Representatives, 1840-1940.” American Journal of Political Science49 (3): 531–49.
20.
EvansEldon Cobb. 1917. A History of the Australian Ballot System in the United States. Chicago: University of Chicago Press.
21.
FranklinMark N.2004. Voter Turnout and the Dynamics of Electoral Competition in Established Democracies since 1945. New York: Cambridge University Press.
22.
GammGerald. 1997. “Buried Treasure: Theory and Historical Data.” The Political Methodologist8 (1): 8–11.
23.
GentzkowMatthewShapiroJesse M.SinkinsonMichael. 2011. “The Effect of Newspaper Entry and Exit on Electoral Politics.” American Economic Review101 (7): 2980–3018.
24.
GomezBrad T.HansfordThomas G.2015. “Economic Retrospection and the Calculus of Voting.” Political Behavior37 (2): 309–29.
25.
HanmerMichael J.2009. Discount Voting: Voter Registration Reforms and Their Effects. New York: Cambridge University Press.
26.
HarrisJoseph P.1929. Registration of Voters in the United States. Washington, DC: Brookings.
27.
HillKim QuaileLeighleyJan E.1993. “Party Ideology, Organization, and Competitiveness as Mobilizing Forces in Gubernatorial Elections.” American Journal of Political Science37 (4): 1158–78.
28.
JensenRichard J.1971. The Winning of the Midwest: Social and Political Conflict, 1888-1896. Chicago: University of Chicago Press.
29.
KeyssarAlexander. 2000. The Right to Vote: The Contested History of Democracy in the United States. New York: Basic Books.
30.
KleppnerPaul. 1970. The Cross of Culture: A Social Analysis of Midwestern Politics, 1850-1900. New York: The Free Press.
31.
KleppnerPaul. 1982a. “Were Women to Blame? Female Suffrage and Voter Turnout.” Journal of Interdisciplinary History12 (4): 621–43.
32.
KleppnerPaul. 1982b. Who Voted? The Dynamics of Electoral Turnout. New York: Praeger.
33.
KleppnerPaulBakerStephen C.1980. “The Impact of Voter Registration Requirements on Electoral Turnout, 1900-1916.” Journal of Political and Military Sociology8 (2): 205–26.
34.
LaraceyMel. 2008. “The Presidential Newspaper as an Engine of Early American Political Development: The Case of Thomas Jefferson and the Election of 1800.” Rhetoric & Public Affairs11 (1): 7–46.
35.
LuddingtonArthur C.1911. American Ballot Laws, 1888-1910. New York State Education Department, Bulletin No. 448. Albany: University of the State of New York.
36.
MayfieldLoomis. 1993. “Voting Fraud in Early Twentieth-Century Pittsburgh.” Journal of Interdisciplinary History24 (1): 59–84.
37.
MayhewDavid R.1986. Placing Parties in American Politics: Organization, Electoral Settings, and Government Activity in the Twentieth Century. Princeton: Princeton University Press.
38.
MeinkeScott R.2008. “Institutional Change and the Electoral Connection in the Senate: Revisiting the Effects of Direct Election.” Political Research Quarterly61 (3): 445–57.
39.
MerriamCharles E.GosnellHarold F.1924. Non-voting: Causes and Methods of Control. Chicago: University of Chicago Press.
40.
NeiheiselJacob R.BurdenBarry C.2012. “The Impact of Election Day Registration on Voter Turnout and Election Outcomes.” American Politics Research40 (4): 636–64.
41.
NicholsonStephen P.MillerRoss A.1997. “Prior Beliefs and Voter Turnout in the 1986 and 1988 Congressional Elections.” Political Research Quarterly50 (1): 199–213.
42.
Nicholson-CrottySeanMeierKenneth J.2002. “Size Doesn’t Matter: In Defense of Single-State Studies.” State Politics & Policy Quarterly2 (4): 411–22.
43.
OliverJ. Eric. 1996. “The Effects of Eligibility Restrictions and Party Activity on Absentee Voting and Overall Turnout.” American Journal of Political Science40 (2): 498–513.
44.
PerezVanessa M.2013. “The Effect of Voter Registration and Political Competition on Turnout in America: 1880–1916.” Paper presented at the annual meeting of the Midwest Political Science Association, Chicago, IL, April 11–14.
45.
PerezVanessa M.2014. “The Effects of Voter Registration and Declining Political Party Competition on Turnout in the United States of America, 1880–1916.” Ph.D. diss., Columbia University.
46.
PetrovaMaria. 2011. “Newspapers and Parties: How Advertising Revenues Created an Independent Press.” American Political Science Review105 (4): 790–808.
PomperGerald M.1990. “Party Organization and Electoral Success.” Polity23 (2): 187–206.
49.
RosenstoneSteven J.HansenJohn Mark. 1993. Mobilization, Participation, and Democracy in America. New York: Macmillan.
50.
RubinRichard L.1981. Press, Party, and Presidency. New York: W.W. Norton.
51.
RuskJerrold G.1974. “Comment: The American Electoral Universe: Speculation and Evidence.” American Political Science Review68 (3): 1028–49.
52.
ShojiKaori.2013. “When Do Party Leaders Democratize? Analyzing Three Reforms of Voter Registration and Candidate Selection.” Ph.D. diss., Columbia University.
53.
SoraufFrank J.1963. Party and Representation: Legislative Politics in Pennsylvania. New York: Atherton Press.
54.
SpringerMelanie Jean. 2012. “State Electoral Institutions and Voter Turnout in Presidential Elections. 1920-2000.” State Politics & Policy Quarterly12 (3): 252–83.
55.
SpringerMelanie Jean. 2014. How the States Shaped the Nation: American Electoral Institutions and Voter Turnout, 1920-2000. Chicago: University of Chicago Press.
56.
SteinRobert M.OwensChrisLeighleyJan. 2003. “Electoral Reform, Party Mobilization, and Voter Turnout.” Paper presented at the annual meeting of the Midwest Political Science Association, Chicago, IL, April 3–6.
57.
SteinRobert M.VonnahmeGreg. 2011. “Voting at Non-precinct Polling Places: A Review and Research Agenda.” Election Law Journal10 (3): 307–11.
ValellyRichard M1995. “National Parties and Racial Disfranchisement.” Pp. 188–216. In Classifying by Race, ed. PetersonPaul E.Princeton: Princeton University Press.
60.
ValellyRichard M.2004. The Two Reconstructions: The Struggle for Black Enfranchisement. Chicago: University of Chicago Press.
61.
WalkerJack L.1966. “Ballot Forms and Voter Fatigue: An Analysis of the Office Block and Party Column Ballots.” Midwest Journal of Political Science10 (4): 448–62.
62.
WareAlan. 2000. “Anti-partyism and Party Control of Political Reform in the United States: The Case of the Australian Ballot.” British Journal of Political Science30:1–29.
63.
WareAlan. 2002. The American Direct Primary: Party Institutionalization and Transformation in the North. New York: Cambridge University Press.
Supplementary Material
Please find the following supplemental material available below.
For Open Access articles published under a Creative Commons License, all supplemental material carries the same license as the article it is associated with.
For non-Open Access articles published, all supplemental material carries a non-exclusive license, and permission requests for re-use of supplemental material or any part of supplemental material shall be sent directly to the copyright owner as specified in the copyright notice associated with the article.
