Aggregate voter turnout rates in the United States have been used in many political science studies, as both a dependent and an independent variable. Most of these studies use the voting-age population as the denominator in their turnout rate measure. However, the voting-age population is not the same as the population of eligible voters. I demonstrate why this distinction matters and outline the steps to construct the voting-eligible population for each of the states from 1980–2000 to provide more accurate measures of state-level voter turnout rates.
Get full access to this article
View all access options for this article.
References
1.
AlvarezMichael R.AnsolabehereStevenAntonssonErikBruckJehoshuaGravesStevenPalfreyThomasRivestRonSelkerTedSlocumAlexStewartCharlesIII. 2001. Voting: What Is, What Could Be. Pasadena, CA: Caltech/MIT Voting Technology Project.
2.
AndrewsWilliam. 1966. “American Voting Participation.” Western Political Quarterly19: 636–52.
3.
BrucePeter. 1997. Measuring Things: How the Experts Got Voter Turnout Wrong Last Year.The Public Perspective October: 39–43.
4.
BurnhamWalter Dean. 1987. The Turnout Problem. In Elections American Style, ed. James ReichleyA.. Washington, DC: The Brookings Institution.
5.
ClarkRebecca L.AndersonScott A.. 2000. Illegal Aliens in Federal, State, and Local Criminal Systems. Washington, DC: The Urban Institute.
6.
CrockerRoyce. 1996. Voter Registration and Turnout: 1948–1994. CRS Report for Congress: CRS-122. Washington, DC: Congressional Research Service.
7.
CrockerRoyce. 1997. Voter Registration and Turnout: 1996. Memorandum. Washington, DC: Congressional Research Service.
8.
CrockerRoyce. 1999. Voter Registration and Turnout: 1998. Memorandum. Washington, DC: Congressional Research Service.
9.
DayJennifer C.1998. Projections of the Voting-Age Population for States: November 1998. Current Population Reports, P25–1132. Washington, DC: U.S. Dept. of Commerce, Bureau of the Census.
10.
EriksonRobert S.1995. “State Turnout and Presidential Voting: A Closer Look.” American Politics Quarterly23(4): 387–96.
11.
FellnerJamieMauerMarc. 1998. Losing the Vote: The Impact of Felony Disenfranchisement (sic) Laws in the United States. Washington, DC: Human Rights Watch and The Sentencing Project.
12.
FranklinDaniel P.GrierEric E.. 1997. “Effects of Motor Voter Legislation: Voter Turnout, Registration, and Partisan Advantage in the 1992 Presidential Election.” American Politics Quarterly25(1): 104–17.
13.
FensterMark J.1994. “The Impact of Allowing Day of Registration Voting on Turnout in U.S. Elections from 1960 to 1992: A Research Note.” American Politics Quarterly22(1): 74–87.
14.
GansCurtis. 1997. Measuring Things: How the Experts Got Voter Turnout Wrong Last Year.The Public Perspective October: 44–8.
15.
HillKim QuaileLeighleyJan E.. 1999. “Racial Diversity, Voter Turnout, and Mobilizing Institutions in the United States.” American Politics Quarterly27(3): 275–95.
16.
KnackSteven. 1995. “Does “Motor Voter” Work? Evidence from State-Level Data.” Journal of Politics57(3): 796–811.
17.
LoveMargaret C.KuzmaSusan M.. 1996. Civil Disabilities of Felons: A State-by-State Survey. Washington, DC: U.S. Department of Justice, Office of the Pardon Attorney.
18.
MartinezMichael D.HillDavid. 1999. “Did Motor Voter Work?” American Politics Quarterly27(3): 296–315.
19.
McDonaldMichael P.PopkinSamuel. 2001. “The Myth of the Vanishing Voter.” American Political Science Review95(4): 963–74.
20.
RadcliffBenjamin. 1994. “Turnout and the Democratic Vote.” American Politics Quarterly22 (3): 259–76.
21.
RhineStaci L.1995. “Registration Reform and Turnout Change in the American States.” American Politics Quarterly23(4): 409–26.
22.
TolbertCaroline J.GrummelJohn A.SmithDaniel A.. 2001. “The Effects of Ballot Initiatives on Voter Turnout in the American States.” American Politics Research29(6): 625–48.
23.
U.S. Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census. various years.Current Population Survey: Voter Supplement File, various years [Computer File]. ICPSR version. Washington, DC: U.S. Dept. of Commerce, Bureau of the Census [producer], various years. Ann Arbor, MI: Inter-university Consortium for Political and Social Research [distributor], various years.
24.
U.S. Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census.2001. Preliminary Estimates Show Improvement in Census 2000 Coverage. Washington, DC: Department of Commerce.
25.
U.S. Department of Justice, Bureau of Justice Statistics. various years.Correctional Populations in the United States, various years. Washington, DC: U.S. Department of Justice.
26.
U.S. Department of Justice, Bureau of Justice Statistics.1996. Non-Citizens in the Federal Criminal Justice System, 1984–1994. NCJ–160934. Washington, DC: Department of Justice.
27.
U.S. Department of Justice, Bureau of Justice Statistics.2000. U.S. Correctional Population Reaches 6.3 Million Men and Women, Represents 3.1 Percent of the Adult U.S. Population. Washington, DC: U.S. Department of Justice, Bureau of Justice Statistics.
28.
U.S. General Accounting Office.1997. “2000 Census: Progress Made on Design But Risks
