Aging populations, limited budgets, changing public expectations, new technologies, and the emergence of new diseases create challenges for health care systems as ways to meet needs and protect, promote, and restore health are considered. Traditional planning methods for the professionals required to provide these services have given little consideration to changes in the needs of the populations they serve or to changes in the amount/types of services offered and the way they are delivered. In the absence of dynamic planning models that simulate alternative policies and test policy mixes for their relative effectiveness, planners have tended to rely on projecting prevailing or arbitrarily determined target provider—population ratios. A simulation model has been developed that addresses each of these shortcomings by simultaneously estimating the supply of and requirements for registered nurses based on the identification and interaction of the determinants. The model’s use is illustrated using data for Nova Scotia, Canada.
Advisory Committee on Health Delivery and Human Resources. ( 2005). A framework for collaborative pan-Canadian health human resources planning (Revised March 2007). Ottawa, Ontario : Health Canada. Retrieved December 11, 2009, from http://www.hc-sc.gc.ca/hcs-sss/alt_formats/hpb-dgps/pdf/pubs/hhr/2007-frame-cadre/2007-frame-cadre-eng.pdf
2.
Birch, S. ( 2002). Health human resource planning for the new millennium: Input in the production of health, illness and recovery in populations. Canadian Journal of Nursing Research, 33(4), 109-114.
3.
Birch, S., Eyles, J., & Newbold, B. ( 1996). Proxies for healthcare need among populations: Validation of alternatives-a study in Quebec. Journal of Epidemiology and Community Health, 50, 564-569.
4.
Birch, S., Kephart, G., Tomblin Murphy, G., O’Brien-Pallas, L., Alder, R., & MacKenzie, A. ( 2007, January). Human resources planning and the production of health: A needs-based analytical framework. Canadian Public Policy, 33(Suppl. 1), pp. 1-16.
5.
Birch, S., Lavis, J., Markham, B., Woodward, C., & O’BrienPallas, L. (1994). Nursing requirements for Ontario over the next twenty years: Development and application of estimation methods (Report commissioned by the Ontario Nursing Human Resources Data Centre) . Hamilton, Ontario, Canada: McMaster University.
6.
Birch, S., O’Brien-Pallas, L., Alksnis, C., Tomblin Murphy, G., & Thomson, D. ( 2003). Beyond demographic change in human resources planning: An extended framework and application to nursing. Journal of Health Services Research and Policy, 8, 225-229.
7.
Birch, S., Maynard, A. ( 1985). Dental Manpower. Social Policy and Administration , 19, 199-217.
8.
Evans, R. ( 1994). Strained mercy: The economics of Canadian health care . Toronto, Ontario, Canada: Butterworths .
9.
Forrester, J.W. ( 1968). Market Growth as Influenced by Capital Investment. Industrial Management Review, 9(2).
10.
Gray, A. ( 1982). The production of dental care in the British National Health Service. Scottish Journal of Political Economy, 29, 59-74.
11.
Kephart, G., Birch, S., Tomblin Murphy, G., O’Brien-Pallas, L., & MacKenzie, A. ( 2005). Health Human Resources Planning Simulation Model. Mississauga, Ontario, Canada: MedEmerg.
12.
Kephart, G., Maaten, S., O’Brien-Pallas, L., Tomblin Murphy, G., & Milburn, B. ( 2004). Building the future: An integrated strategy for nursing human resources in Canada-simulation analysis report. Ottawa, Ontario, Canada: Nursing Sector Study Corporation .
13.
Long, A.F., & Mercer, G. ( 1987). Health manpower: Planning, production and management . Beckenham, UK: Croom Helm.
14.
Mantha, A., & Stewart, N. ( 2007, March). Total work redesign: Leading nursing care towards the future. Paper presented at the HHR Knowledge Series meeting of the Canadian Nurses Association.
15.
Nursing Sector Study Corporation. (2005). Nursing sector study: Final report. Mississauga, Ontario, Canada: MedEmerg.
16.
O’Brien-Pallas, L., Shamian, J., Thomson, D., Alksnis, C., Koehoorn, M., Kerr, M., et al. (2005). Work-related disability in Canadian nurses . Journal of Nursing Scholarship, 36, 352-357.
17.
O’Brien-Pallas, L., Thompson, D., McGillis-Hall, L., Pink, G., Kerr, M., Wang, S., et al. (2004). Evidence based standards for measuring nurse staffing performance (Report for the Canadian Health Services Research Foundation).
18.
O’Brien-Pallas, L. and Tomblin Murphy, G. ( 2006). Appendix: Example Of A Conceptual Model For HHR Planning In: A Framework for Collaborative Pan-Canadian Health Human Resources Planning. (pp. 29-36). Ottawa: Federal/Provincial/ Territorial Advisory Committee on Health Delivery and Human Resources (ACHDHR).
19.
O’Brien-Pallas, L., Tomblin Murphy, G., Birch, S., Kephart, G., Meyer, R., Eisler, K., et al. (2007). Health Human resources planning: Challenging the past, creating the future. Ottawa, Ontario, Canada: Canadian Health Services Research Foundation.
20.
Roos, N.P., Shapiro, E., Bond, R., Black, C., Finlayson, G., Newburn-Cook, C., et al. (2001). Changes in health and health care use of Manitobans, 1985-1998. Winnipeg, Canada: Manitoba Centre for Health Policy and Evaluation.
21.
Statistics Canada. (2005a). Canadian community health survey: Guide. Statistics Canada Catalogue 82M0013GPE .
Statistics Canada. (2009). Productivity and related measures, by business sector (quarterly). Retrieved September 1, 2009, from http://www.40.statcan.gc.ca/l01/cst01/econ78a-eng.htm
24.
Sterman, J. ( 2000). Business Dynamics, Systems Thinking and Modeling for a Complex World. Toronto: McGraw-Hill .
25.
Tomblin Murphy, G., Birch, S., Alder, A., MacKenzie, A., Lethbridge, L., Little, L., et al. (2009). Tested solutions for eliminating Canada’s registered nurse shortage. Ottawa, Ontario: Canadian Nurses Association.
26.
Tomblin Murphy, G., Birch, S., & MacKenzie, A. ( 2007). Needs-based health human resources planning: The challenge of linking needs to provider requirements. Ottawa, Ontario : Canadian Nurses Association/ Canadian Medical Association.
27.
Tomblin Murphy, G., O’Brien-Pallas, L., Birch, S., Kephart, G., & MacKenzie, A. ( 2004). Hospital service utilization: Implications for nursing resource planning. Ottawa, Ontario: Health Canada.
