The Relevance of Betting Market Outcome Uncertainty: Decided Wagers and Television Viewership Loss

Abstract

We investigate the strength of the relationship between betting market outcome uncertainty and live television viewership through the mechanism of a decided wager. Specifically, we assess how the elimination of outcome uncertainty in the totals market (over/under) impacts viewership for NCAA football national television broadcasts. Our modeling demonstrates the timing of when the over/under is eclipsed has a statistically significant and economically relevant impact on live consumption. A one standard deviation change in the timing of totals market outcome uncertainty elimination is associated with a reduction of over 175,000 average contest viewers. We also demonstrate this effect is not being driven by games that become uncompetitive or are largely decided from a point spread perspective late in the broadcast. The results further illustrate the economically relevant impact the wagering market has on live consumption, and an additional way to operationalize uncertainty of outcome in the sports demand literature.