Prevention Effect of News Shocks in Anti-Doping Policies

Abstract

This paper contributes to the debate on anti-doping policies not by evaluating the policy itself but by evaluating the announcement of (new) policy measures. We develop a dynamic model for analyzing the effects of two different types of news shocks: (1) the preannouncement of improved drug testing technological opportunities and (2) the preannouncement of future increases in financial sanctions. We find that the anticipation of policy changes affects the behavior of potentially delinquent athletes. In both scenarios, our simulations show immediately reduced drug abuse among athletes. We conclude that authorities may consider news shocks as an anti-doping strategy.

Keywords

doping doping prevention news shock in law economics of crime

Get full access to this article

View all access options for this article.

References

Abel

A. B.

(1990). Asset prices under habit formation and catching up with the joneses. American Economic Revue, 80(2), 38–42. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.toxlet.2005.06.005

Barbalho

M. d. S. M.

Barreiros

F. P.

(2015). The use and effect of anabolic androgenic steroids in sports. International Journal of Sports Science, 5(5), 171–179.

Barkoukis

Lazuras

Tsorbatzoudis

(2014). Beliefs about the causes of success in sports and susceptibility for doping use in adolescent athletes. Journal of Sports Science, 32(3), 212–219. https://doi.org/10.1080/02640414.2013.819521

Beaudry

Portier

(2004). An exploration into pigou’s theory of cycles. Journal of Monetary Economics, 51(6), 1183–1216. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jmoneco.2003.10.003

Becker

B. E.

Huselid

M. A.

(1992). The incentive effects of tournament compensation systems. Administrative Science Quarterly, 37(2), 336–350. https://doi.org/10.2307/2393228

Becker

G. S.

(1964). Human capital. Columbia University Press.

Becker

G. S.

(1968). Crime and punishment: An economic approach. Journal of Political Economy, 76(2), 169–217.

Becker

G. S.

Murphy

K. M.

(1988). A theory of rational addiction. Journal of Political Economy, 96(4), 675–700. https://doi.org/10.1086/261558

Benson

Zimmerman

P. R.

(2010). Handbook on the economics of crime. Edward Elgar Publishing.

10.

Berentsen

(2002). The economics of doping. European Journal of Political Economy, 18(1), 109–127. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0176-2680(01)00071-4

11.

Berri

D. J.

(1999). Who is “most valuable”? measuring the player’s production of wins in the national basketball association. Managerial and Decision Econonics, 20(8), 411–427. https://doi.org/10.1002/1099-1468(199912)20:8<411::AID-MDE957>3.0.CO;2-G

12.

Birzniece

(2015). Doping in sport: Effects, harm and misconceptions. Internal Medicine Journal, 45(3), 239–248. https://doi.org/10.1111/imj.12629

13.

Boldrin

Christiano

L. J.

Fisher

J. D. M.

(2001). Habit persistence, asset returns, and the business cycle. American Economic Review, 91(1), 149–166. https://doi.org/10.1257/aer.91.1.149

14.

Boyce

E. G.

(2003). Use and effectiveness of performance-enhancing substances. Journal of Pharmacy Practice, 16(1), 22–36. https://doi.org/10.1177/0897190002239630

15.

Breivik

(1992). Doping games. A game theoretical exploration of doping. International Review for the Sociology of Sport, 27(3), 235–253. https://doi.org/10.1177/101269029202700303

16.

Campbell

J. Y.

Cochrane

J. H.

(1999). By force of habit: A consumption-based explanation of aggregate stock market behavior. Journal of Political Economy, 107(2), 205–251. https://doi.org/10.1086/250059

17.

Cartwright

(2019). Guilt aversion and reciprocity in the performance-enhancing drug game. Journal of Sports Economics, 20(4), 535–555. https://doi.org/10.1177/1527002518794793

18.

Castillo

E. M.

Comstock

R. D.

(2007). Prevalence of use of performance-enhancing substances among United States adolescents. Pediatric Clinics of North America, 54(4), 663–675. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.pcl.2007.04.002

19.

Cawley

Ruhm

C. J.

(2011). The economics of risky health behaviors. In Pauly

M. V.

Mcguire

T. G.

Barros

P. P.

(Eds.), Handbook of health economics (pp. 95–199). North Holland. https://doi.org/10.1016/B978-0-444-53592-4.00003-7

20.

Chaloupka

F. J.

Warner

K. E.

(2000). The economics of smoking. In Culyer

A. J.

Newhouse

J. P.

(Eds.), Handbook of health economics (pp. 1539–1627). Elsevier. https://doi.org/10.1016/S1574-0064(00)80042-6

21.

Cochrane

J. H.

(1994). Shocks. Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series Public Policy, 41, 295–364. https://doi.org/10.1016/0167-2231(94)00024-7

22.

Dawson

Dobson

Gerrard

(2000). Estimating coaching efficiency in professional team sports: Evidence from English association football. Scottish Journal of Political Economy, 47(4), 399–421. https://doi.org/10.1111/1467-9485.00170

23.

de Hon

Kuipers

van Bottenburg

(2015). Prevalence of doping use in elite sports: A review of numbers and methods. Sports Medicine, 45(1), 57–69. https://doi.org/10.1007/s40279-014-0247-x

24.

Donovan

R. J.

Egger

Kapernick

Mendoza

(2002). A conceptual framework for achieving performance enhancing drug compliance in sport. Sports Medicine, 32(4), 269–284. https://doi.org/10.2165/00007256-200232040-00005

25.

Egner

I. M.

Bruusgaard

J. C.

Eftestøl

Gundersen

(2013). A cellular memory mechanism aids overload hypertrophy in muscle long after an episodic exposure to anabolic steroids. The Journal of Physiology, 591(24), 6221–6230. https://doi.org/10.1113/jphysiol.2013.264457

26.

Ehrenberg

R. G.

Bognanno

M. L.

(1990). The incentive effects of tournaments revisited: Evidence from the european PGA tour. ILR Review, 43(3), 74-S–88-S. https://doi.org/10.1177/001979399004300305

27.

Ehrlich

(1973). Participation in illegitimate activities: A theoretical and empirical investigation. Journal of Political Economy, 81(3), 521–565. https://doi.org/10.1086/260058

28.

Ehrlich

(1996). Crime, punishment, and the market for offenses. Journal of Economic Perspectives, 10(1), 43–67. https://doi.org/10.1257/jep.10.1.43

29.

Fajnzylber

Lederman

Loayza

(2002). Inequality and violent crime. The Journal of Law and Economics, 45(1), 1–39. https://doi.org/10.1086/338347

30.

Freeman

R. B.

(1996). Why do so many young American men commit crimes and what might we do about it? Journal of Economic Perspectives, 10(1), 25–42. https://doi.org/10.1257/jep.10.1.25

31.

García-Pallarés

Carrasco

Díaz

Sánchez-Medina

(2009). Post-season detraining effects on physiological and performance parameters in top-level kayakers: Comparison of two recovery strategies. Journal of Sports Science & Medicine, 8(4), 622–628.

32.

Garoupa

(2001). Optimal magnitude and probability of fines. European Economic Review, 45(9), 1765–1771.

33.

Goetsch

Salzmann

(2018). The role of ex post audits in doping enforcement. Journal of Sports Economics, 19(7), 960–976. https://doi.org/10.1177/1527002517696959

34.

Goetsch

Salzmann

(2019). The impact of contest dynamics on ex post doping audits. Journal of Sports Economics, 20(3), 411–427. https://doi.org/10.1177/1527002518777976

35.

Gould

Maynard

(2009). Psychological preparation for the Olympic games. Journal of Sports Sciences, 27(13), 1393–1408. https://doi.org/10.1080/02640410903081845

36.

Grogger

(1991). Certainty vs. Severity of punishment. Economic Inquiry, 29(2), 297–309. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1465-7295.1991.tb01272.x

37.

Hall

D. T.

Foster

L. W.

(1977). A psychological success cycle and goal setting: Goals, performance, and attitudes. Academy of Management Journal, 20(2), 282–290. https://doi.org/10.5465/255401

38.

Hartgens

Kuipers

(2004). Effects of androgenic-anabolic steroids in athletes. Sports Medicine, 34, 513–554. https://doi.org/10.2165/00007256-200434080-00003

39.

Haugen

K. K.

(2004). The performance-enhancing drug game. Journal of Sports Economics, 5(1), 67–86. https://doi.org/10.1177/1527002503251712

40.

Havranek

Rusnak

Sokolova

(2017). Habit formation in consumption: A meta-analysis. European Economic Review, 95, 142–167. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.euroecorev.2017.03.009

41.

Hirschmann

(2017). May increasing doping sanctions discourage entry to the competition? Journal of Sports Economics, 18(7), 720–736. https://doi.org/10.1177/1527002515595265

42.

Huybers

Mazanov

(2012). What would Kim do: A choice study of projected athlete doping considerations. Journal of Sport Management, 26(4), 322–334. https://doi.org/10.1123/jsm.26.4.322

43.

Jaimovich

Rebelo

(2009). Can news about the future drive the business cycle? American Economic Review, 99(4), 1097–1118. https://doi.org/10.1257/aer.99.4.1097

44.

Johnson

M. B.

(2012). A systemic social-cognitive perspective on doping. Psychology of Sport and Exercise, 13(3), 317–323. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.psychsport.2011.12.007

45.

King

R. G.

Rebelo

S. T.

(1999). Resuscitating real business cycles. In Taylor

J. B.

(Ed.), Handbook of macroeconomics (pp. 927–1007). Elsevier. https://doi.org/10.1016/S1574-0048(99)10022-3

46.

King

R. G.

Plosser

C. I.

Rebelo

S. T.

(1988). Production, growth and business cycles: I. The basic neoclassical model. Journal of Monetary Economics, 21(2-3), 195–232. https://doi.org/10.1016/0304-3932(88)90030-X

47.

Kirstein

(2014). Doping, the inspection game, and Bayesian enforcement. Journal of Sports Economics, 15(4), 385–409. https://doi.org/10.1177/1527002512461358

48.

Kräkel

(2007). Doping and cheating in contest-like situations. European Journal of Political Economy, 23(4), 988–1006. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ejpoleco.2006.11.003

49.

Kydland

F. E.

Prescott

E. C.

(1977). Rules rather than discretion: The inconsistency of optimal plans. Journal of Political Economy, 85(3), 473–492. https://www.jstor.org/stable/1830193

50.

Kydland

F. E.

Prescott

E. C.

(1982). Time to build and aggregate fluctuations. Econometrica, 50(6), 1345–1370. https://doi.org/10.2307/1913386

51.

Langer

V. C. E.

Maennig

Richter

(2018). The Olympic games as a news shock: Macroeconomic implications. Journal of Sports Economics, 19(6), 884–906. https://doi.org/10.1177/1527002517690788

52.

Lentillon-Kaestner

Ohl

(2011). Can we measure accurately the prevalence of doping? Scandinavian Journal of Medicine and Science in Sports, 21(6), e132–e142. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1600-0838.2010.01199.x

53.

Levitt

S. D.

(2002). Using electoral cycles in police hiring to estimate the effects of police on crime: Reply. American Economic Review, 92(4), 1244–1250. https://doi.org/10.1257/00028280260344777

54.

Lochner

(2004). Education, work, and crime: A human capital approach. International Economic Review, 45(3), 811–843. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.0020-6598.2004.00288.x

55.

Lundborg

(2006). Having the wrong friends? Peer effects in adolescent substance use. Journal of Health Economics, 25(2), 214–233. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhealeco.2005.02.001

56.

Machin

Marie

Vujić

(2011). The crime reducing effect of education. The Economic Journal, 121(552), 463–484. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1468-0297.2011.02430.x

57.

Maennig

(2002). On the economics of doping and corruption in international sports. Journal of Sports Economics, 3(1), 61–89. https://doi.org/10.1177/1527002502003001005

58.

Maennig

(2009). Pecuniary disincentives in the anti-doping fight. Economic Analysis and Policy, 39(3), 349–351.

59.

Maennig

(2014). Inefficiency of the anti-doping system: Cost reduction proposals. Substance Use & Misuse, 49(9), 1201–1205. https://doi.org/10.3109/10826084.2014.912065

60.

Maldonado-Martín

Cámara

James

D. V. B.

Fernández-López

J. R.

Artetxe-Gezuraga

(2017). Effects of long-term training cessation in young top-level road cyclists. Journal of Sports Sciences, 35(14), 1396–1401. https://doi.org/10.1080/02640414.2016.1215502

61.

Mallett

C. J.

Hanrahan

S. J.

(2004). Elite athletes: Why does the “fire” burn so brightly? Psychology of Sport and Exercise, 5(2), 183–200. https://doi.org/10.1016/S1469-0292(02)00043-2

62.

Manski

C. F.

(2000). Economic analysis of social interactions. Journal of Economic Perspectives, 14(3), 115–136. https://doi.org/10.1257/jep.14.3.115

63.

McCann

M. A.

(2005). It’s not about the money: The role of preferences, cognitive biases, and heuristics among professional athletes. Brooklyn Law Review, 71(4), 1459–1528.

64.

McKay

Nakamura

Steinsson

(2016). The power of forward guidance revisited. American Economic Review, 106(10), 3133–3158. https://doi.org/10.1257/aer.20150063

65.

McNamee

M. J.

Tarasti

(2010). Juridical and ethical peculiarities in doping policy. Journal of Medical Ethics, 36(3), 165–169. https://doi.org/10.1136/jme.2009.030023

66.

Mohan

Hazari

(2016). Cheating in contests: Anti-doping regulatory problems in sport. Journal of Sports Economics, 17(7), 736–747. https://doi.org/10.1177/1527002514542438

67.

Morgan

W. P.

(1979). Prediction of performance in athletics. In Klavora

Daniel

J. V.

(Eds.), Coach, athlete, and the sport psychologist (pp. 173–186). Human Kinetics.

68.

Music

(2020). The undesirable consequences of doping regulations: Why stricter efforts might strengthen doping incentives. Journal of Sports Economics, 21(3), 281–303. https://doi.org/10.1177/1527002519885425

69.

Petróczi

Aidman

(2008). Psychological drivers in doping: The life-cycle model of performance enhancement. Substance Abuse Treatment, Prevention, and Policy, 3(7). https://doi.org/10.1186/1747-597X-3-7

70.

Petróczi

Haugen

K. K.

(2012). The doping self-reporting game: The paradox of a “false-telling” mechanism and its potential research and policy implications. Sport Management Review, 15(4), 513–517. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.smr.2012.04.002

71.

Pitsch

Emrich

(2012). The frequency of doping in elite sport: Results of a replication study. International Review for the Sociology of Sport, 47(5), 559–580. https://doi.org/10.1177/1012690211413969

72.

Robeck

(2015). Professional cycling and the fight against doping. International Journal of Sport Finance, 10(3), 244–266.

73.

Rowe

N. F.

(2015). Sporting capital: A theoretical and empirical analysis of sport participation determinants and its application to sports development policy and practice. International Journal of Sport Policy and Politics, 7(1), 43–61. https://doi.org/10.1080/19406940.2014.915228

74.

Saridakis

(2004). Violent crime in the United States of america: A time-series analysis between 1960–2000. European Journal of Law and Economics, 18(2), 203–221. https://doi.org/10.1023/B:EJLE.0000045082.09601.b2

75.

Schmitt-Grohé

Uribe

(2012). What’s news in business cycles. Econometrica, 80(6), 2733–2764. https://doi.org/10.3982/ECTA8050

76.

Schofield

J. A.

(1988). Production functions in the sports industry: An empirical analysis of professional cricket. Applied Economics, 20(2), 177–193. https://doi.org/10.1080/00036848800000003

77.

Scully

G. W.

(1974). Pay and performance in major league baseball. American Economic Review, 64(6), 915–930. https://www.jstor.org/stable/1815242

78.

Sharples

A. P.

Stewart

C. E.

Seaborne

R. A.

(2016). Does skeletal muscle have an “epi"-memory? The role of epigenetics in nutritional programming, metabolic disease, aging and exercise. Aging Cell, 15(4), 603–616. https://doi.org/10.1111/acel.12486

79.

Sickles

R. C.

Williams

(2008). Turning from crime: A dynamic perspective. Journal of Econometrics, 145(1-2), 158–173. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jeconom.2008.05.014

80.

Spieker

C. J.

Hinsz

V. B.

(2004). Repeated success and failure influences on self-efficacy and personal goals. Social Behavior and Personality, 32(2), 191–198. https://doi.org/10.2224/sbp.2004.32.2.191

81.

Strelan

Boeckmann

R. J.

(2006). Why drug testing in elite sport does not work: Perceptual deterrence theory and the role of personal moral beliefs. Journal of Applied Social Psychology, 36(12), 2909–2934. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.0021-9029.2006.00135.x

82.

Striegel

Ulrich

Simon

(2010). Randomized response estimates for doping and illicit drug use in elite athletes. Drug and Alcohol Dependence, 106(2-3), 230–232. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.drugalcdep.2009.07.026

83.

Strulik

(2012). Riding high: Success in sports and the rise of doping cultures. The Scandinavian Journal of Economics, 114(2), 539–574. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1467-9442.2012.01698.x

84.

Tentori

Graziani

(2007). Doping with growth hormone/IGF-1, anabolic steroids or erythropoietin: Is there a cancer risk? Pharmacological Research, 55(5), 359–369. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.phrs.2007.01.020

85.

Ulrich

Pope

H. G.

Cléret

Petróczi

Nepusz

Schaffer

Kanayama

Comstock

R. D.

Simon

(2018). Doping in two elite athletics competitions assessed by randomized-response surveys. Sports Medicine, 48(1), 211–219. https://doi.org/10.1007/s40279-017-0765-4

86.

Westmattelmann

Dreiskämper

Strauß

Schewe

Plass

(2018). Perception of the current anti-doping regime – A quantitative study among German top-level cyclists and track and field athletes. Frontiers in Psychology, 9(1890). https://doi.org/10.3389/fpsyg.2018.01890

87.

Westmattelmann

Goelden

Schewe

Hokamp

(2014). An agent-based concept to analyze elite-athletes’ doping behavior. Conference Paper, ESSA 2014 – 10th European Social Simulation Annual Conference, Barcelona, Spain, . Retrieved from https://www.wiwi.uni-muenster.de/orga/en/publications/120088.

88.

Westmattelmann

Sprenger

Hokamp

Schewe

(2020). Money matters: The impact of prize money on doping behaviour. Sport Management Review, 23(4), 688–703.

89.

Witte

A. D.

(1980). Estimating the economic model of crime with individual data. The Quarterly Journal of Economics, 94(1), 57–84. https://doi.org/10.2307/1884604

90.

World Anti-Doping Agency (2014). World anti-doping code. Retrieved from https://www.wada-ama.org/en/resources/the-code/world-anti-doping-code.

91.

World Anti-Doping Agency (2020a). 2019 Anti-doping testing figures. Retrieved from https://www.wada-ama.org/sites/default/files/resources/files/2019_anti-doping_testing_figures_en.pdf.

92.

World Anti-Doping Agency (2020b). 2019 Annual report. Retrieved from https://www.wada-ama.org/sites/default/files/resources/files/ar2019_single_08102020_digital.pdf.

93.

World Anti-Doping Agency (2021a). World Anti-Doping Code. Retrieved from https://www.wada-ama.org/sites/default/files/resources/files/2021_wada_code.pdf.

94.

World Anti-Doping Agency (2021b). What we do, https://www.wada-ama.org/en/what-we-do.

95.

World Anti-Doping Agency (2021c). WADA Executive Committee approves Technical Document for innovative dried blood spot testing method, https://www.wada-ama.org/en/media/news/wada-executive-committee-approves-technical-document-for-innovative-dried-blood-spot.

96.

Zech

C. E.

(1981). An empirical estimation of a production function: The case of major league baseball. The American Economist, 25(2), 19–23. https://doi.org/10.1177/056943458102500204