Team-Level Time Series Analysis in MLB,the NBA,and the NHL

Abstract

We extend the attendance break point literature to the team level, addressing structural change and season aggregated outcome uncertainty for franchises in three of the four North American major leagues. We compare the larger variation at the team level with past time series analysis of league-level annual aggregate attendance. We also note that there is at best mixed evidence of outcome uncertainty impacts on team-level attendance. We discuss the implications for these findings with respect to future research that attempts to comprehensively estimate the demand for attendance.

Keywords

attendance structural change time series uncertainty of outcome

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