Moneyball Revisited

Abstract

In Moneyball, the assumption was made that the baseball labor market undervalues specific player skills. This study investigates whether this is also the case for player effort in professional soccer which had no significant effect on players’ market values in previous research. Specifically, it examines the effect of effort on team performance in soccer using team-game day data from three seasons (N = 1,514) of the German Bundesliga. Two effort measures are applied: (1) total distance run and (2) number of intensive runs (>20 km/hr) per player and per match. The results of probit models show that both effort measures have a significant positive effect on whether the observed team won the observed match in separate estimations. In the full model, only the effect of running distance remains positive, while intensive runs become negative. Given the insignificant effect of effort on players’ market values in previous research, we suggest that there may be a Moneyball phenomenon in soccer in the sense that the soccer labor market undervalues running distance. The findings imply that decision makers in professional soccer should consult player statistics to a greater extent.