The Effect of Recruit Quality on College Football Team Performance

Abstract

Previous studies have examined the effect of recruiting classes on team performance in college football and found a positive correlation between recruiting classes and success on the field. The relationship between recruit quality and team performance may be overstated, however, if the effect is driven by heterogeneity between teams. In this article, we analyze the effect of recruit quality on team performance controlling for school fixed effects. We collected data from recruiting services to obtain the number of individual recruits by ex ante star rating for every Football Bowl Division (FBS) school for the years 2002-2012. We also record team performance in the regular season and postseason during the same time period. We find that controlling for between-school heterogeneity lowers the estimated effect of recruit quality on wins by more than 25%, but the remaining effect is still statistically and economically significant. Furthermore, we find that within-school variation in recruit quality is an important determinant of the probability of an appearance in the most lucrative bowl games. Our within-school estimates imply that a 5-star recruit is worth more than US$150,000 in expected Bowl Championship Series bowl proceeds to an individual school.