National Basketball Association (NBA) teams have drafted international players regularly since 1996. Did NBA teams value international prospects accurately relative to U.S. players? Regressions of NBA performance reveal that international players drafted through 2001 tended to outperform expectations adjusted for draft positions. Teams subsequently drafted more international players, but first-round picks tended to underperform, implying that teams overreacted in adjusting their valuations of international prospects. Teams have not moved smoothly toward optimal evaluation of international players relative to U.S.-trained players.
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