Does Bettor Sentiment Affect Bookmaker Pricing?

Abstract

This article uses bookmaker betting volume data to test the influence of bettor sentiment on bookmaker pricing in the over/under 2.5 goals betting market. In an average match, more than 80% of the volume wagered is concentrated on the over bet as cheering for a high score is more attractive than betting against it. We do not find that this volume imbalance is associated with systematic biases in bettor returns. High price transparency seems to prevent bookmakers from systematically distorting their odds in order to exploit bettor sentiment.

Keywords

sports betting sentiment bookmaker odds betting volume

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