Point-Spread Wagering Markets' Analogue to Realized Return in Financial Markets

Abstract

Tests for market efficiency and rational behavior in financial markets commonly utilize realized return as the variable of interest. Researchers who study point-spread wagering markets for sporting events generally agree that the point spread is these markets' analogue to asset price in financial markets. An issue that is less clear, to date, is upon exactly which variable researchers should focus when testing for efficiency and rationality in point-spread betting markets. The objective of this article is to verify that change in point spread is an acceptable proxy for realized return.