Abstract
The authors develop a model to investigate potential biases of inherent characteristics in betting markets. The test requires only that there be both a sides (“spread”) market and a totals (“over/under”) market for the game. The authors utilize the model to test for the well-documented “home-underdog” bias in the National Football League (NFL). They show that the bias specifically favors the offense (or defense) of home underdogs (away-favorites), with no bias against the offense (defense) of away favorites (home-underdogs).
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