Does the NCAA Coaching Carousel Hamper the Professional Prospects of College Football Recruits?

Abstract

College football recruits choose their schools partly for the opportunity to play for a specific coach. It is not unusual for the coach who recruited the player to leave before the end of the player’s career. This article investigates whether these departures affect a player’s National Football League (NFL) draft prospects. Regression results indicate that, for players drafted, a coaching change drops the average draftee’s position nearly two thirds of a round, potentially costing the player hundreds of thousands of dollars in guaranteed money. This harmful effect holds regardless of why the coach left, such as being fired or accepting a new position elsewhere.