Complexity Theory: An Exploration and Overview Based on John Holland’s Work

Abstract

Complexity theory, developed primarily at the Santa Fe Institute in the 1980s, attracts increasing attention from social researchers. Complexity departs from the tradition of static linear models to focus on nonlinear dynamic systems, difficult to predict, with emergent properties not reducible to their elements. The author is currently working on a project to explain heroin trends. This article explores complexity theory, as reflected in the work of John Holland, to evaluate it as a candidate formal system after which to model this work. After reviewing some of the basic characteristics of the theory, an example is presented to evaluate the fit of theory to case and to outline the kinds of data necessary. At the metaphorical level, the evaluation is a positive one. How well the details of the formalism will fit the details of the case remains an open question.