The literature on scenario planning can be neatly divided into two broad categories: (a) anecdotal, practitioner oriented articles that describe how scenario planning has been undertaken in organizations, its espoused benefits, and experienced-based advice on how to construct scenarios and (b) articles that are more academic and analytical in that they attempt to provide a theoretical underpinning for scenarios based on a small body of empirical studies of related topics. It is this second category, the empirical studies of related topics that this article focuses on, in particular, research findings from the cognitive psychology domain in terms of how knowledge is organized and activated in the human mind, cognitive simplification processes, and inductive versus deductive thinking. A research project focusing on the scenario development process is described and the preliminary findings related to the impact of these cognitive phenomena in terms of learning barriers in the development process is discussed.
Anderson, C.A. (1983). Abstract and concrete data in the perseverance of social theories: When weak data leads to unshakeable beliefs. Journal of Experimental Social Psychology, 19, 93-108.
2.
Anderson, J.R., & Bower, G.H. (1973). Human associative memory. Washington DC: Winston.
3.
Anderson, B.F., & Johnson, W. (1966). Two kinds of set in problem solving. Psychological Reports, 19, 851-858.
4.
Ashby, W.R. (1958). Requisite variety and implications for control of complex systems. Cybernetica, 1, 83-99.
5.
Bower, G.H., Black, J., & Turner, T. (1979). Scripts in text comprehension and memory. Cognitive Psychology, 11, 177-220.
6.
Bunn, D.W., & Salo, A.A. (1993). Forecasting with scenarios. EuropeanJournal of Operational Research, 68, 291-303.
7.
Butler, S. (1986). Anchoring in the judgmental evaluation of audit samples. Accounting Review, 61, 101-111.
8.
Chapman, P.F., & Chapman, J.P. (1969). Illusory correlation as an obstacle to the use of valid diagnostic signs. Journal of Abnormal Psychology , 74, 193-204.
9.
Chermack, T.J. (2002). The mandate for theory in scenario planning. Futures Research Quarterly, 18(2), 25-28.
10.
Collins, A.M., & Loftus, E.F. (1975). A spreading-activation theory of semantic memory . Psychology Review, 82, 407-428.
11.
Collins, A.M., & Quillian, M.R. (1969). Retrieval time from semantic memory. Journal of Verbal Learning and Verbal Behaviour, 8, 241-248.
12.
Dearborn, D.C., & Simon, H.A. (1958). Selective perception: A note on the departmental identification of executives. Sociometry, 21, 140-144.
13.
Einhorn, H.J., & Hogarth, R.M. (1982). Prediction, diagnosis, and causal thinking in forecasting. Journal of Forecasting, 1(1), 23-36.
14.
Festinger, L.A. (1957). Theory of cognitive dissonance. Stanford, CA: Stanford University Press.
15.
Fischoff, B., Slovic, P., & Lichtenstein, S. (1978). Fault trees: Sensitivity of estimated failure probabilities to problem representation. Journal of Experimental Psychology: Human Perception and Performance, 4, 330-334.
16.
Foster, M.J. (1993). Scenario planning for small business. Long Range Planning, 26, 123-129.
17.
Georgantzas, N.C., & Acar, W. (1995). Scenario-driven planning: Learning to manage strategic uncertainty. Westport, CT: Quorum .
18.
Gersick, C.J.G. (1990). Time and transition in work team: Towards a new model of group development. Academy of Management Journal , 31(1), 9-41.
19.
Godet, M. (1990). Integration of scenarios and strategic management: Using relevant, consistent and likely scenarios. Futures, 22, 730-739.
20.
Hamill, R., Wilson, T.D., & Nisbett, R.E. (1980). Insensitivity to sample bias: Generalizing from atypical cases. Journal of Personality and Social Psychology , 39, 578-589.
Jervis, R. (1976). Perception and misperception in international politics. Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press.
23.
Joyce E.J., & Biddle, G.C. (1981). Anchoring and adjustment in probabilistic inferences in auditing. Journal of Accounting Research, 19, 120-145.
24.
Jungermann, H. (1985a). Inferential processes in the construction of scenarios. Journal of Forecasting, 4, 321-327.
25.
Jungermann, H. (1985b). The psychological aspects of scenarios. In V. T. Covello, J. L. Mumpower, P. J. M. Stallen, & V. R. R. Uppuluri (Eds.), Environmental Impact Assessment, Technology Assessment and Risk Analysis (pp. 46-97). Berlin, Germany: Springer-Verlag.
26.
Jungermann, H., & Thuring, M. (1987). The use of mental models for generating scenarios . In G. Wright & P. Ayton (Eds.), Judgmental forecasting (pp. 78-94). London: John Wiley.
27.
Kahn, H., & Wiener, A.J. (1967). The year 2000: A framework for speculation. New York: MacMillan.
28.
Kahneman, D., & Tversky, A. (1972). Subjective probability: A judgment of representativeness . Cognitive Psychology, 3, 450-454.
29.
Kahneman, D., & Tversky, A. (1973). On the psychology of prediction. Psychological Review, 80, 237-251.
30.
Kahneman, D., & Tversky, A. (1982a). On the psychology of prediction. In D. Kahanerman, P. Slovic , & A. Tversky (Eds.), Judgement under uncertainty: Heuristics and biases (pp. 48-68). Cambridge , UK: Cambridge University Press.
31.
Kahneman, D., & Tversky, A. (1982b). The simulation heuristic. In D. Kahanerman, P. Slovic , & A. Tversky (Eds.), Judgement under uncertainty: Heuristics and biases (pp 201-208). Cambridge, UK: Cambridge University Press.
32.
Khakee, A. (1991). Scenario construction for urban planning. International Journal of Management Science, 19, 459-469.
33.
Kuhn, K.M., & Sniezek, J.A. (1995). Confidence and uncertainty in judgmental forecasting: Differential effects of scenario presentation. Unpublished manuscript, University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign.
34.
Levine, M. (1971). Hypothesis theory and nonlearning despite ideal S-R reinforcement contingencies. Psychological Review, 78, 130-140.
35.
Lichtenstein, S., Fischhoff, B., & Phillips, L.D. (1982). Calibration of probabilities: The state of the art to 1980. In D. Kahaneman , P. Slovic, & A. Tversky (Eds.), Judgment under uncertainty: Heuristics and biases (pp. 306-334). Cambridge, UK: Cambridge University Press.
36.
Minsky, M. (1975). A framework for representing knowledge. In P. Winston (Ed.), The psychology of computer vision (pp. 23-38). New York: McGraw-Hill.
37.
Mintzberg, H. (2004). Managers not MBA: A hard look at the soft practice of managing and management development. London: Prentice Hall.
38.
Montgomery, D.B., & Weinberg, C.B. (1973). Modeling marketing phenomena: A managerial perspective. Journal of Contemporary Business , 4(2), 17-43.
39.
Newell, A., & Simon, H.A. (1972). Human problem solving. Englewood Cliffs, NJ: Prentice-Hall.
40.
Nisbett, R.E., & Ross, L.D. (1980). Human inferences: Strategies and shortcomings of social judgment. Englewood Cliffs, NJ: Prentice-Hall.
41.
Norman, D.A., & Rumelhart, D.E. (1975). Explorations in cognition . San Francisco: Freeman Press.
42.
Pruitt, D.G. (1961). Informational requirements in decision making . American Journal of Psychology, 74, 433-439.
43.
Rumelhart, D.E. (1984). Schemata and the cognitive system. In R. S. Wyer Jr., & T. K. Srull (Eds.), Handbook of social cognition, (Vol. 1, pp. 45-58). Hillsdale, NJ: Erlbaum.
Schwenk, C.R. (1986). Information, cognitive biases and commitment to a course of action. Academy of Management Review, 11, 298-310.
47.
Shell. (1986). Global scenarios: Rationale and applications. Guides to Planning, Series No 5. Shell Group Planning PL88 01.
48.
Simon, H.A. (1973). The structure of ill-structured problems. Artificial Intelligence, 4, 181-201.
49.
Simpson, D.G. (1992). Key lessons for adopting scenario planning in diversified companies. Planning Review, 20(3), 10-17.
50.
Slovic, P., Fischhoff, B., & Lichtenstein, S. (1977). Behavioral decision theory . Annual Review of Psychology, 28, 1-39.
51.
Slovic, P., Fischhoff, B., & Lichtenstein, S. (1985). Rating the risks: The structure of expert and lay perceptions. In V. T. Covello, J. L. Mumpower, P. J. M. Stallen, & V. R. R. Uppuluri (Eds.), Environmental impact assessment, technology assessment and risk analysis (pp. 177-134). Berlin, Germany: Springer-Verlag.
52.
Slovic, P., Fischhoff, B., & Lichtenstein, S. (1977). Behavioral decision theory . Annual Review of Psychology, 28, 1-39.
53.
Slovic, P. & Lichtenstein, S. (1971). Comparison of Bayesian and regression approaches to the study of information processing. Organisational Behavior and Human Performance, 6, 649-744.
54.
Smith, J.F., & Kilda, T. (1991). Heuristics and biases: Expertise and task realism in auditing. Psychological Bulletin, 109, 472-485.
55.
Steinbruner, J.D. (1974). The cybernetics theory of decisions. Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press.
56.
Tversky, A., & Kahneman, D. (1981). The framing of decisions and the psychology of choice. Science, 211, 453-458.
57.
Tversky, A., & Kahneman, D. (1982a). Judgements under uncertainty: Heuristics and biases. In D. Kahanerman, P. Slovic, & A. Tversky (Eds.), Judgement under uncertainty: Heuristics and biases (pp. 3-20). Cambridge, UK: Cambridge University Press.
58.
Tversky, A., & Kahneman, D. (1982b). Judgments of and by representativeness. In D. Kahaneman, P. Slovic, & A. Tversky (Eds.). Judgment under uncertainty: Heuristics and biases. Cambridge, UK: Cambridge University Press.
59.
Tversky, A., & Kahneman, D. (1982c). Causal schemas in judgments under uncertainty . In D. Kahaneman, P. Slovic, & A. Tversky (Eds.). Judgment under uncertainty: Heuristics and biases (pp. 117-128). Cambridge, UK: Cambridge University Press.
60.
Tversky, A., & Kahneman, D. (1982d). Availability: A heuristic for judging frequency and probability. In D. Kahaneman, P. Slovic, & A. Tversky (Eds.), In Judgment under uncertainty: Heuristics and biases (pp. 163-178). Cambridge, UK: Cambridge University Press.
61.
van der Heijden, A.M.J. (2005). Scenarios: The art of strategic conversation (2nd ed.). Chichester, UK: John Wiley.
62.
Vanston, J.H., Jr., Parker Frisbee, W., Cook Lopreato, S., & Poston, L., Jr. (1977). Alternate scenario planning. Technological Forecasting and Social Change, 10, 159-180.
63.
Wack, P. (1985a). Scenarios: Uncharted waters ahead. Harvard Business Review, 63, 73-89.
64.
Watson, P.C. (1960). On the failure to eliminate hypothesis in a conceptual task. Quarterly Journal of Experimental Psychology, 12, 129-140.
65.
Zentner, R.D. (1982). Scenarios past, present & future. Long Range Planning, 15(3), 82-87.
