Patterns of Protest in Contemporary Africa: An Empirical Investigation of Regional Trends Employing Multiple Imputation

Abstract

What kind of people choose to join protests in contemporary Africa? Aiming to reduce the existing uncertainty related to the impact of different factors on protest participation, this article tests several hypotheses about participation in Third Wave demonstrations across the African continent, related to democratic values, socioeconomic status, and corruption perceptions. To do so, it deploys an innovative regression model that corrects for missing value bias through multiple imputation and that separates the broad survey data into regional subsamples, dependent upon historical patterns of neopatrimonialism and democratization. Its results show for the first time the existence of different profiles of protester associated with North, West, East, Central, and Southern Africa. Its most surprising result is that across the board, responders open to considering alternatives to democracy were more prone to protesting, while corruption perceptions mattered only in Western African countries. The largest contrast then regards the urban–rural divide: city dwellers lead the way in Southern Africa, while the countryside takes the helm in the Western part of the continent. Finally, people who declare to have voted and those who have more frequent political conversations also fit the profile of the average protester.