Sage Journals: Discover world-class research

Abstract

For decades, scholars have constructed various ways to measure Taiwanese public opinion on the nation’s future, the independence–unification (Tondu) question. While existing surveys find that Taiwanese people become more likely to support independence, the majority still favors the “status quo” option. Existing measurements have a number of weaknesses. For instance, most do not inform citizens what the “status quo” means, nor do they specify when and how independence and unification will manifest in reality. We propose a new approach to measuring citizens’ preferences of the nation’s future by specifying five mutually exclusive options on the independence–unification spectrum and field a nationwide survey to illustrate the validity of the new typology. Compared with traditional measurements, our method has more substantial explanatory power for several key political issues in Taiwan.

Keywords

Taiwan independence cross-strait relations status quo independence–unification attitudes

Get full access to this article

View all access options for this article.

References

Achen

Wang

(eds) (2017) The Taiwan Voter. Ann Arbor, MI: University of Michigan Press.

Batto

(2019) Cleavage Structure and the Demise of a Dominant Party: The Role of National Identity in the Fall of the KMT in Taiwan. Asian Journal of Comparative Politics 4 (1): 81–101.

Chen

(2019) The Evolution and Normalization of the Status of Island Nation Taiwan. Taipei, Taiwan: Sharing Publication.

Chen

(2000) Change and Continuity of Party Identification among the Electorate in Taiwan. Journal of Electoral Studies 7 (2): 109–141.

Chen

(2021) Taiwan’s Election and Democratization Study, 2020-2024(I): TEDS Benchmark Survey, 2021 (TEDS2021). MOST 109-2740-H-004-004-SS4.

Chu

Lin

(2001) Political Development in 20th-Century Taiwan: State-Building, Regime Transformation and the Construction of National Identity. The China Quarterly 165: 102–129.

Crandall

Eidelman

Skitka

, et al. (2009) Status Quo Framing Increases Support for Torture. Social Influence 4 (1): 1–10.

Fell

(2005) Party Politics in Taiwan: Party Change and the Democratic Evolution of Taiwan, 1991-2004. London; New York: Routledge.

Hsiao

Cheng

(2014) Citizens’ Perceptions of the Left-Right Ideology in Taiwan: Replacing Left-Right Ideology with the Unification-Independence Issue to Measure Taiwan’s Party Polarization. Taiwanese Political Science Review 18 (2): 79–138.

10.

Hsiao

(2012) Re-examining the 6-Itemed Measurement of Citizen’s Preference on the Issue of Independence vs. Unification in Taiwan: A Proposed Advancement. Taiwan Political Science Review 16 (2): 65–116.

11.

Hsiao

(2020) Polarization Perception and Support for Democracy: The Case of Taiwan. Journal of Asian and African Studies 55 (8): 1143–1162.

12.

Hsieh

Niou

EMS

(2005) Measuring Taiwanese Public Opinion on Taiwanese Independence. The China Quarterly 181: 158–168.

13.

Klar

Krupnikov

(2016) Independent Politics How American Disdain for Parties Leads to Political Inaction. New York: Cambridge University Press.

14.

Lin

(2016) Taiwan’s China Dilemma: Contested Identities and Multiple Interests in Taiwan’s Cross-strait Economic Policy. Stanford, CA: Stanford University Press.

15.

Maizland

(2022) Why China-Taiwan Relations Are So Tense. Council on Foreign Affairs, 18 April. Available at: https://www.cfr.org/backgrounder/china-taiwan-relations-tension-us-policy-biden (accessed 8 June 2022).

16.

Niou

EMS

(2004) Understanding Taiwan Independence and Its Policy Implications. Asian Survey 44 (4): 555–567.

17.

Niou

EMS

(2005) A New Measure of Preferences on the Independence-Unification Issue in Taiwan. Journal of Asian and African Studies 40 (1–2): 91–104.

18.

Ogasawara

(2019) Presidential Elections in Taiwan. Taipei, Taiwan: Koyoshobo (Common Master).

19.

Rich

Dahmer

Eliassen

(2019) Explaining Support for Same-Sex Marriage: Evidence from Taiwan. International Journal of Taiwan Studies 2 (2): 321–340.

20.

Sheng

Liao

(2017) Issues, Political Cleavages, and Party Competition in Taiwan. In: Achen

Wang

T-Y

(eds) The Taiwan Voter. Ann Arbor, MI: University of Michigan Press, pp. 98–138.

21.

Tsai

Lin

(2015) The Measurement of Latent Variables and Its Effects: An Analysis of Taiwanese Attitudes on the Independence-Unification Issue in 2013. Journal of Electoral Studies 22 (1): 71–107.

22.

(1993) National Identity and Party Support: The Social Basis of Party Competition in Taiwan. Bulletin of the Institute of Ethnology 74: 33–61.

23.

(2005) Romance and Bread: A Preliminary Study of the Identity Change in Taiwan. Taiwanese Journal of Political Science 9 (2): 5–39.

24.

(2013) Survey on the Internet: Theory and Practice. In: Chen

(ed.) On Public Survey. Taipei, Taiwan: Wu-Nan Press, pp. 89–110.

Supplementary Material

Please find the following supplemental material available below.

For Open Access articles published under a Creative Commons License, all supplemental material carries the same license as the article it is associated with.

For non-Open Access articles published, all supplemental material carries a non-exclusive license, and permission requests for re-use of supplemental material or any part of supplemental material shall be sent directly to the copyright owner as specified in the copyright notice associated with the article.

0.00 MB

0.08 MB

The Multiverse of Taiwan’s Future: Reconsidering the Independence–Unification ( Tondu ) Attitudes

Abstract

Keywords

Get full access to this article

References

Supplementary Material