COVID-19 caused serious personal and societal damage. It also created, however, a unique natural experiment. How did the pandemic affect crime levels? In this article, we analyse unique empirical data for the Netherlands, covering January 2016–March 2021, to assess if and how crime patterns changed during the first 12 months of COVID-19-related measures. Domestic violence, which was expected to rise, did not increase, nor did distraction burglary. Residential burglary, bicycle theft and pickpocketing, however, decreased considerably, especially during (some of the) weeks when lockdown measures were into force. Online crime rates on the other hand increased. An opportunity theoretical approach regarding crime offers a good explanation for these changes.
AbramsDS (2021) COVID and crime: An early empirical look. Journal of Public Economics194: 104344.
2.
AchterbergMDobbelaarSBoerOD, et al. (2021) Perceived stress as mediator for longitudinal effects of the COVID-19 lockdown on wellbeing of parents and children. Scientific Reports11: 2971.
3.
AgnewR (1992) Foundation for a general strain theory of crime and delinquency. Criminology; An Interdisciplinary Journal30(1): 47–87.
4.
AndresenMAHodgkinsonT (2020) Somehow I always end up alone: COVID-19, social isolation and crime in Queensland, Australia. Crime Science9(25): 1–20.
AppelmanJBijleveldKEjbye-ErnstP, et al. (2021) Naleving van gedragsmaatregelen tijdens de COVID-19-pandemie. Justitiele Verkenningen47(3): 54–71.
7.
AshbyM (2020b) Changes in police calls for service during the early months of the 2020 coronavirus pandemic. Policing: A Journal of Policy and Practice 14(4): 1054–1072.
8.
AshbyMPJ (2020a) Initial evidence on the relationship between the coronavirus pandemic and crime in the United States. Crime Science9(1): 6.
9.
BarrosPHBBaggioHSBaggioIS (2020) The socioeconomic determinants of crime in Brazil: The role of spatial spillovers and heterogeneity. Revista Brasileira de Segurança Pública14: 188.
Buil-GilDMiró-LlinaresFMonevaA, et al. (2021) Cybercrime and shifts in opportunities during COVID-19: A preliminary analysis in the UK. European Societies23(1): 47–59.
Cerna-TuroffIFischerHTMayhewS, et al. (2019) Violence against children and natural disasters: A systematic review and meta-analysis of quantitative evidence. PLoS ONE14(5): e0217719. pone.0217719.
16.
ClarkeRV (2012) Opportunity makes the thief. Really? And so what?Crime Science1(3): 1-9.
17.
CohenLEFelsonM (1979) Social change and crime rate trends: A routine activity approach. American Sociological Review44(4): 588–608.
18.
CoomansAKühling-RomeroDvan DeurenS, et al. (2022) Stay home, stay safe? The impact of the COVID-19 restrictions on the prevalence, nature, and type of reporter of domestic violence in The Netherlands. Journal of Family Violence, 38: 1545–1561.
19.
CurtisTMillerBCBerryHE (2000) Changes in reports and incidence of child abuse following natural disasters. Child Abuse Neglect24(9): 1151–1162.
20.
De KlerkMOlsthoornMPlaisierI, et al. (2021) Een jaar met corona Ontwikkelingen in de maatschappelijke gevolgen van corona. Den Haag: Sociaal en Cultureel Planbureau.
21.
EichelsheimVCoomansASchletteA, et al. (2023) Stay home, stay safe? Short- and long-term consequences of COVID 19, restrictions on domestic violence in The Netherlands. In: DeflemM (ed.) Crime and Social Control in Pandemic Times (Sociology of Crime, Law and Deviance), Vol. 28.Bingley: Emerald Publishing Limited, pp.55–71.
22.
FaberRHamersmaM (2021) De effecten van COVID-19 op mobiliteit: een analyse van de (wetenschappelijke) literatuur. Den Haag: Kennisinstituut voor Mobiliteitsbeleid.
23.
FaddegonKVan BrechtJPostE, et al. (2021) Lopen en fietsen tijdens en na COVID-19. Amsterdam: Hogeschool van Amsterdam.
GerellMKardellJKindgrenJ (2020) Minor COVID-19 association with crime in Sweden. Crime Science9(1): 19.
30.
GottfredsonMRHirschiT (1990) A General Theory of Crime. Redwood City, CA: Stanford University Press.
31.
HawdonJPartiKDeardenTE (2020) Cybercrime in America amid COVID-19: The initial results from a natural experiment. American Journal of Criminal Justice45: 546–562.
32.
HillHRaberGGulledgeL (2023) Down with the sickness? Los Angeles burglary and COVID-19 restrictions. Journal of Experimental Criminology 19: 1085–1113.
33.
HirschiT (1969) Causes of Delinquency. Berkeley: University of California Press.
34.
HodgkinsonTAndresenMA (2020) Show me a man or a woman alone and I'll show you a saint: Changes in the frequency of criminal incidents during the COVID-19 pandemic. Journal of Criminal Justice69: 101706.
35.
HyndmanRJKhandakarY (2008) Automatic time series forecasting: The forecast package for R. Journal of Statistical Software27(1): 1–22.
36.
JostenEMerensA (2021) Thuis of terug naar kantoor Plus- en minpunten van thuiswerken voor het welbevinden van werknemers. Den Haag: Sociaal en Cultureel Planbureau Den Haag.
KranenbargMWWeermanF (2022) Online jeugdcriminaliteit in coronatijd: Ontwikkelingen in zelfgerapporteerd daderschap, activiteiten en contacten met vrienden bij een hoogrisicogroep. Tijdschrift Voor Criminologie64(4): 396–426.
39.
KruisbergenEWHaasMBEsL. van, et al. (2021) De pandemie als criminologisch experiment: De ontwikkeling van de criminaliteit tijdens twaalf maanden van coronamaatregelen. Justitiële Verkenningen47(3): 9–34.
40.
KuppensJWolsinkJEsseveldtJ. van, et al. (2020) Fietsdiefstal in Nederland: Van fenomeen naar aanpak. Arnhem: Bureau Beke.
41.
LangtonSDixonAFarrellG (2021) Six months in: pandemic crime trends in England and Wales. Crime Science10: 1–16.
42.
Ministerie van Infrastructuur en Waterstaat (26 mei 2020) Mobiliteit tijdens de coronacrisis. Briefkenmerk: IENW/BSK-2020/97841.
43.
MoolenaarDChoenniS (2021) The Impact of the COVID-19 crisis on the Dutch criminal justice system. Global Economics Science 2(3): 24–41.
44.
MoolenaarDChoenniSLeeuwF (2007). Design and implementation of a forecasting tool of justice chains. In: GalvesF (ed.). Proceedings of the Law and Technology Conference 2007. Berkeley: ACTA Press, pp.60–66.
45.
NivetteA.E. (e.a.) (2021) Global analysis of the impact of COVID-19 stay-at-home restrictions on crime. Nature, Human Behaviour 5(7): 868–877.
PayneJMorganAPiqueroAR (2020) COVID-19 and social distancing measures in Queensland, Australia, are associated with short-term decreases in recorded violent crime. Journal of Experimental Criminology 18: 89–113.
48.
PayneJLMorganAPiqueroAR (2021) Exploring regional variability in the short-term impact of COVID-19 on property crime in Queensland, Australia. Crime Science10(1): 1–20.
49.
PiqueroARJenningsWGJemisonE, et al. (2021) Domestic violence during the COVID-19 pandemic – Evidence from a systematic review and meta-analysis. Journal of Criminal Justice74: 101806.
50.
PiqueroARRiddelJRBishopSA, et al. (2020) Staying home, staying safe? A short-term analysis of COVID 19, on Dallas domestic violence. American Journal of Criminal Justice45(3): 1–35.
SchletteACoomansADeurenSV, et al. (2023) Stay home, stay safe?Pandemiespecifieke Gevolgen Voor Adviesvragen bij Veilig Thuis. Tijdschrift Voor Criminologie64(4): 347–371.
54.
SnippeJMuijnckJA deKampermanM, et al. (2021) Effecten van preventie: Een compacte literatuursynthese. Den Haag: WODC.
55.
SteketeeMWildtR deCompagnerM, et al. (2020). Kwetsbare gezinnen in tijden van Corona: Wat is de impact van de coronacrisis op de kwetsbare gezinnen en de hulp die zij nodig hebben?Utrecht: Verweij-Jonker Instituut.
56.
StickleBFelsonM (2020) Crime rates in a pandemic: The largest criminological experiment in history. American Journal of Criminal Justice45: 525–536.
57.
TNO / Digital Trust Center (2020) Covid-19-phishing –Criminelen misbruiken de coronacrisis voor phishing aanvallen. Factsheet Covid-19-phishing.
Van de WeijerSLeukfeldtR (2023) Cybercriminaliteit tijdens de coronacrisis: Aard, omvang en impact van cyberrisico’s voor burgers en het mkb. Amsterdam: NSCR.
60.
Van KoppenMVBruggemanMHoustonR, et al. (2023) Domestic violence during the corona pandemic: a comparison of pre-pandemic and pandemic incidents of domestic violence in The Netherlands. International Journal of Offender Therapy and Comparative Criminology.
WanW-YMoffattSXieZ, et al. (2013) Forecasting prison populations using sentencing and arrest data. Crime and Justice Bulletin174: 1–12.
65.
WeitzmanABehrmanJA (2016) Disaster. disruption to family life, and intimate partner violence: The case of the 2010, earthquake in Haiti. Sociological Science3: 167–189.
66.
ZahranSO’Connor ShelleyTPeekP, et al. (2009) Natural disasters and social order: Modeling crime outcomes in Florida. International Journal of Mass Emergencies and Disasters27(1): 26–52.
