Better out than in? The effect on recidivism of replacing incarceration with electronic monitoring in Norway

Abstract

Electronic monitoring (EM) has become a common alternative to traditional incarceration over the past few decades, yet the causal effect of EM on recidivism remains uncertain. This study exploits the gradual implementation of an EM programme in Norway between 2008 and 2011 in an instrumental variable design aimed at estimating the effect of EM on the recidivism rate, frequency and severity measured up to three years after release. Results suggest that EM reduced two-year recidivism rates by about 15 percent and the one-year recidivism frequency by approximately 0.3 offences on average. Subsample analyses indicate that the effects on recidivism rates are strongest among offenders without a prison record or recent unemployment spells and, although between-group differences are not statistically significant, this suggests that avoiding prison stigma and maintaining workplace relations can be important mechanisms whereby EM reduces recidivism and promotes desistance.