Abstract
We consider Bayesian modelling of the inter-arrival times of vehicles on a road. We give particular attention to model checking and propose diagnostic plots to assess whether the model captures features observed in the data. Models for such processes are important in predicting the behaviour of road junctions. Two-component mixtures have often been used, with a variety of distributions for the components and non-Bayesian methods for fitting. The components are often regarded as representing ‘free flowing’ and ‘congested’ vehicles. We propose a gamma-exponential mixture and compare this with some other models. To allow for the serial dependence of headways, we consider the use of a hidden Markov chain for the mixture component allocation.
Keywords
Get full access to this article
View all access options for this article.
