The relationship between public opinion and public policy provides a potential criterion for assessing the democratic quality of the European Union. The few existing time series analyses in this area assume that there exists a European-wide public mood towards integration. Analyzing West-European series of public opinion from 1974 to 2011, this article finds considerable support for this assumption. However, the analysis also points towards a ‘periphery-trend’, driven by the UK, Ireland and Denmark, in contrast to a ‘core-trend’, driven by the founders of the European Economic Community (EEC). The analysis further shows that both opinion trends are cointegrated with public policy in this area: European integration appears to be significantly influenced, or constrained, by public opinion both in the core and periphery.
AndersenSSSitterN (2006) Differentiated integration: What is it and how much can the EU accommodate?Journal of European Integration28(4): 313–330.
2.
AndersonCJKaltenthalerKC (1996) The dynamics of public opinion toward European integration, 1973–93. European Journal of International Relations2(2): 175–199.
3.
AndersonCJReichertMS (1995) Economic benefits and support for membership in the EU: A cross-national analysis. Journal of Public Policy15(3): 231–249.
4.
Bechtel MM, Hainmueller J and Margalit Y (forthcoming) Preferences for international redistribution: The divide over the Eurozone bailouts. American Journal of Political Science. Available at: http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/ajps.12079/full.
5.
BølstadJ (2012) Thermostatic voting: Presidential elections in light of new policy data. PS: Political Science & Politics45(1): 44–50.
6.
CampbellJYShillerRJ (1988) Interpreting cointegrated models. Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control12(2–3): 505–522.
7.
CareyS (2002) Undivided loyalties: Is national identity an obstacle to European integration?European Union Politics3(4): 387–413.
8.
CarrubbaCJ (2001) The electoral connection in European Union politics. Journal of Politics63(1): 141–158.
9.
CrombezC (2003) The democratic deficit in the European Union: Much ado about nothing?European Union Politics4(1): 101–120.
10.
DowneyJKoenigT (2006) Is there a European public sphere? The Berlusconi–Schulz case. European Journal of Communication21(2): 165–187.
11.
EichenbergRCDaltonRJ (1993) Europeans and the European community: The dynamics of public support for European integration. International Organization47(4): 507–534.
12.
EichenbergRCDaltonRJ (2007) Post-Maastricht blues: The transformation of citizen support for European integration, 1973–2004. Acta Politica42(2): 128–152.
13.
EngleRFGrangerCW (1987) Co-integration and error correction: Representation, estimation, and testing. Econometrica: Journal of the Econometric Society55(2): 251–276.
14.
EriksenEO (2005) An emerging European public sphere. European Journal of Social Theory8(3): 341–363.
15.
EriksonRSMacKuenMBStimsonJA (2002) The Macro Polity, Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.
16.
FollesdalAHixS (2006) Why there is a democratic deficit in the EU: A response to Majone and Moravcsik. Journal of Common Market Studies44(3): 533–562.
17.
FranklinMNWlezienC (1997) The responsive public: Issue salience, policy change, and preferences for European integration. Journal of Theoretical Politics9(3): 347–363.
18.
GabelM (1998) Public support for European integration: An empirical test of five theories. The Journal of Politics60(2): 333–354.
19.
GabelMPalmerHD (1995) Understanding variation in public support for European integration. European Journal of Political Research27(1): 3–19.
20.
GabelMWhittenGD (1997) Economic conditions, economic perceptions, and public support for European integration. Political Behavior19(1): 81–96.
21.
Gilbert PD and Meijer E (2005) Time series factor analysis with an application to measuring money. Research report 05f10, University of Groningen, SOM Research School.
22.
GrangerCW (1969) Investigating causal relations by econometric models and cross-spectral methods. Econometrica: Journal of the Econometric Society37(3): 424–438.
23.
GrangerCWJ (1980) Long memory relationships and the aggregation of dynamic models. Journal of Econometrics14(2): 227–238.
24.
GrangerCWNewboldP (1974) Spurious regressions in econometrics. Journal of Econometrics2(2): 111–120.
25.
HakhverdianA (2009) Capturing government policy on the left-right scale: Evidence from the United Kingdom, 1956–2006. Political Studies57(4): 720–745.
26.
HakhverdianA (2010) Political representation and its mechanisms: A dynamic left–right approach for the United Kingdom, 1976–2006. British Journal of Political Science40(04): 835–856.
27.
HakhverdianA (2012) The causal flow between public opinion and policy: Government responsiveness, leadership, or counter movement?West European Politics35(6): 1386–1406.
28.
HixS (2008) What’s Wrong with the European Union and How To Fix It, London: Polity Press.
29.
HoboltSBKlemmensenR (2005) Responsive government? Public opinion and government policy preferences in Britain and Denmark. Political Studies53(2): 379–402.
30.
HoboltSBKlemmensenR (2008) Government responsiveness and political competition in comparative perspective. Comparative Political Studies41(3): 309–337.
31.
HolzingerKSchimmelfennigF (2012) Differentiated integration in the European Union: Many concepts, sparse theory, few data. Journal of European Public Policy19(2): 292–305.
32.
HoogheLMarksG (2004) Does identity or economic rationality drive public opinion on European integration?PS: Political Science & Politics37(3): 415–420.
33.
HoogheLMarksG (2005) Calculation, community and cues: Public opinion on European integration. European Union Politics6(4): 419–443.
34.
HoogheLMarksG (2009) A postfunctionalist theory of European integration: From permissive consensus to constraining dissensus. British Journal of Political Science39(1): 1–23.
35.
JenningsW (2009) The public thermostat, political responsiveness and error-correction: Border control and asylum in Britain, 1994–2007. British Journal of Political Science39(4): 847–870.
36.
JenningsWJohnP (2009) The dynamics of political attention: Public opinion and the Queen’s speech in the United Kingdom. American Journal of Political Science53(4): 838–854.
37.
JohansenS (1995) Likelihood-Based Inference in Cointegrated Vector Autoregressive Models, Oxford: Oxford University Press.
38.
KennedyP (2008) A Guide to Econometrics, Oxford: Blackwell Publishing.
39.
KöllikerA (2001) Bringing together or driving apart the union? Towards a theory of differentiated integration. West European Politics24(4): 125–151.
40.
KoopmansRErbeJ (2004) Towards a European public sphere?Innovation: The European Journal of Social Science Research17(2): 97–118.
41.
LedesmaRDValero-MoraP (2007) Determining the number of factors to retain in EFA: An easy-to-use computer program for carrying out parallel analysis. Practical Assessment, Research & Evaluation12(2): 1–11.
42.
MachillMBeilerMFischerC (2006) Europe-topics in Europe’s media: The debate about the European public sphere: A meta-analysis of media content analyses. European Journal of Communication21(1): 57–88.
43.
MajoneG (1998) Europe’s ‘democratic deficit’: The question of standards. European Law Journal4(1): 5–28.
44.
MansbridgeJ (2003) Rethinking representation. American Political Science Review97(4): 515–528.
45.
McDonaldMDMendesSMBudgeI (2004) What are elections for? Conferring the median mandate. British Journal of Political Science34: 1–26.
46.
MoravcsikA (2002) Reassessing legitimacy in the European Union. Journal of Common Market Studies40(4): 603–624.
47.
MoravcsikA (2004) Is there a ‘democratic deficit’ in world politics? A framework for analysis. Government and Opposition39(2): 336–363.
48.
PowellGBJr. (2000) Elections as Instruments of Democracy. Majoritarian and Proportional Visions, New Haven: Yale University Press.
49.
RayL (2003) When parties matter: The conditional influence of party positions on voter opinions about European integration. Journal of Politics65(4): 978–994.
50.
RobertsAKimBY (2011) Policy responsiveness in post-communist Europe: Public preferences and economic reforms. British Journal of Political Science41(04): 819–839.
51.
SchimmelfennigFWinzenT (2014) Instrumental and constitutional differentiation in the European Union. Journal of Common Market Studies52(2): 354–370.
52.
Schmitt H and Scholz E (2005) The Mannheim Eurobarometer trend file 1970–2002. Prepared by Zentralarchiv für Empirische Sozialforschung. ICPSR04357-v1. Mannheim, Germany: Mannheimer Zentrum fur Europaische Sozialforschung and Zentrum fur Umfragen, Methoden und Analysen [producers], 2005. Cologne, Germany: Zentralarchiv fur Empirische Sozial-forschung/Ann Arbor, MI: Inter-university Consortium for Political and Social Research [distributors], 2005-12-06. doi:10.3886/ICPSR04357.v1.
53.
SchmittHThomassenJJA (2000) Dynamic representation: The case of European integration. European Union Politics1(3): 318–339.
54.
SorokaSNWlezienC (2004) Opinion representation and policy feedback: Canada in comparative perspective. Canadian Journal of Political Science37(3): 531–559.
55.
SorokaSNWlezienC (2005) Opinion-policy dynamics: Public preferences and public expenditure in the United Kingdom. British Journal of Political Science35(4): 665–689.
56.
SorokaSNWlezienC (2010) Degrees of Democracy: Politics, Public Opinion, and Policy, Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.
57.
SteenbergenMREdwardsEEde VriesCE (2007) Who’s cueing whom?European Union Politics8(1): 13–35.
58.
StimsonJAMackuenMBEriksonRS (1995) Dynamic Representation. The American Political Science Review89(3): 543–565.
59.
ToshkovD (2011) Public opinion and policy output in the European Union: A lost relationship. European Union Politics12(2): 169–191.
60.
TrenzHJ (2004) Media coverage on European governance: Exploring the European public sphere in national quality newspapers. European Journal of Communication19(3): 291–319.
61.
WlezienC (1995) The Public as thermostat: Dynamics of preferences for spending. American Journal of Political Science39(4): 981–1000.
62.
WlezienCSorokaSN (2011) Federalism and public responsiveness to policy. Publius: The Journal of Federalism41(1): 31–52.
63.
WlezienCSorokaSN (2012) Political institutions and the opinion-policy link. West European Politics35(6): 1407–1432.
Supplementary Material
Please find the following supplemental material available below.
For Open Access articles published under a Creative Commons License, all supplemental material carries the same license as the article it is associated with.
For non-Open Access articles published, all supplemental material carries a non-exclusive license, and permission requests for re-use of supplemental material or any part of supplemental material shall be sent directly to the copyright owner as specified in the copyright notice associated with the article.
