Counterfactuals and revisionism in historical explanation

Abstract

This article addresses the role of counterfactuals in historical and ethnohistorical explanation. Drawing primarily on examples from the Conquest of Mexico, it argues (1) for a useful role for counterfactual analysis, not in writing fiction, but in assessing pivotal causation and proofing causal arguments; (2) for a clearer understanding of causation in historical records, especially of ethnohistorical subjects; and (3) for a way in which this perspective can be employed to argue for solidly grounded revisionist interpretations of events.