What happens to imprisonment rates when a progressive prosecutor is elected: Quasi-experimental evidence from Cook County

Abstract

There has been a clear recognition in recent years that the United States' extremely high rates of imprisonment, coupled with significant racial disparities, are problematic. The progressive prosecutor movement has developed in response to these issues and has gained increasing attention over the past decade. Despite the growing importance of the progressive prosecutor movement in criminal legal reform efforts, we know little about the extent to which electing a progressive chief prosecutor actually leads to reductions in overall imprisonment rates and racial disparities in imprisonment, with no studies to our knowledge using data that capture preelection differences in imprisonment trends across jurisdictions. In this study, we begin to fill this gap by examining the implications of the 2016 election of Kim Foxx in Cook County, Illinois, for overall, Black, White, and Latinx imprisonment rates. Employing a quasi-experimental synthetic control approach that accounts for preelection differences in imprisonment trends, our findings suggest that Kim Foxx's election led to a reduction in the imprisonment rate overall, as well as for Black and White individuals. However, our findings suggest that substantial racial disparities in imprisonment persisted after her election.