Estimation of annual activity and the use of activity multipliers

Abstract

The factors determining monthly and cumulative activity (and costs) are shown to be related to total and available working days per month, the random nature of events (i.e. emergency admissions), the effects of seasonality and the unplanned. How to predict monthly activity is described in the context of managing a contract. A range of 'activity multipliers' are given to predict end of year activity from the cumulative activity at any point in the year. For instance, activity for April would need to be multiplied by a number near to twelve (i.e. between I I and 13) to give the likely activity for the full financial year. Special cases are explored for activity in obstetrics, elderly care, paediatrics and general medicine. The correct method for the projection of activity (and costs) is described for emergency, elective, daycase and outpatient activity in the context of individual specialties, business units and Trust/purchaser (including general practice fundholding) activity. This document also presents a range of 'standard' activity multipliers for predicting annual activity from cumulative activity at any point during the year. Such guidance should allow managers to calculate multipliers for use in situations such as the closure of a ward (MRSA, fire, etc.) or to reduce activity to achieve financial break-even.