Disentangling Uncertainty in Mysterious Consumption

Abstract

Although uncertainty is traditionally associated with risk aversion and unfavorable consumer responses, such as hesitation or avoidance in decision-making, marketing practitioners are witnessing a surge in consumers’ appreciation for mysterious consumption (i.e. blind boxes). Two registered experimental studies and one single-paper meta-analysis show that higher (vs. lower) outcome uncertainty leads to significantly higher purchase intent. This positive effect of outcome uncertainty is contingent upon the probability uncertainty; the effect of outcome uncertainty is present only when the probability uncertainty is high (vs. low). Furthermore, when probability uncertainty is high, greater outcome uncertainty is more prone to enhance the level of sensation-seeking, which in turn increases consumers’ purchase intent. Theoretically, this research showcases sensation-seeking as the underlying causal mechanism bounded by probability uncertainty. Practically, when marketers attempt to capitalize on uncertainty to boost consumer responses, it seems optimal to maximize both outcome and probability uncertainty. Additionally, marketers ought to use sensation-provoking techniques and strategies to promote greater patronage behaviors.