Drivers and mitigation of building carbon emissions in extremely cold climate zones: Evidence from Northeast China

Abstract

This study investigated the drivers of building-related carbon emissions in Jilin Province, Northeastern China, a region challenged by extreme cold and a coal-dominated energy mix. Under China's ‘dual carbon’ strategy, we applied an extended Kaya–Logarithmic Mean Divisia Index decomposition model to quantify operational-phase emissions across public buildings, urban residences and rural homes using energy data from 2006 to 2022. Emissions rose from 51.33 to 96.53 MtCO₂ over the period, with public buildings showing the fastest annual growth (5.07%) and urban residences contributing the largest share (40%–59%). Income growth and urbanisation jointly accounted for nearly 71% of the increase, while reductions in energy intensity and floor area expansion offset 21.6 and 33.7 MtCO₂, respectively. Coal use declined from 40.4% to 8%, yet increased reliance on thermal and electric heating revealed persistent energy lock-in and limited substitution effectiveness. To address this, we recommend region-specific carbon quota mechanisms, greater integration of geothermal and photovoltaic distributed systems and policy incentives such as floor area ratio bonuses to support deep retrofits and ultra-low-energy buildings. These measures are crucial for enabling a resilient, low-carbon transition in cold-climate regions with established energy structures.