A quantitative simulation and verification of the sustainable and low-carbon development efficiency curves for Beijing–Tianjin–Hebei urban agglomeration

Abstract

The Beijing–Tianjin–Hebei urban agglomeration (BTHUA) has experienced ecological and environmental issues due to its rapid development and expansion, including air and water pollution. Examining inter-regional plans for sustainable and low-carbon sustainable development is crucial and practical for achieving ecological balance among regions and fostering the BTHUA’s commitment to collaborative innovation. This study applies the three-stage data envelopment analysis (DEA) model to 13 cities in the BTHUA between 2007 and 2020 to compute the sustainable and low-carbon development efficiency (SLE) and index, and then constructs a fundamental model of urban agglomeration growth. In this study, MATLAB software was used to predict the general evolution trend and development curve for the BTHUA’s low-carbon and green economy development. The results of the study indicate (1) the efficiency of sustainable and low-carbon development in the BTHUA has a wave-like ascending tendency, generating an overall development pattern that is centred on core cities and eventually descends toward the periphery. (2) In recent years, coordination between sustainable and low-carbon development indices and development levels within BTHUA has largely improved; however, a changing nonlinear relationship exists between the sustainable and low-carbon efficiency index and development levels. (3) The BTHUA’s sustainable and low-carbon development curve displays a tendency that is consistent with the function model’s anticipated evolution trend.