Thermal performance of buildings highly depends on the climate conditions, which have given rise to several traditional and modern climate-conscious strategies. However, these strategies might need to be modified to cater for global warming. This research considers the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) to predict the effectiveness of one such strategy, that is, natural ventilation for the year 2100 for the tropical island of Mauritius. A total of 3 regions (Port Louis, Vacoas and St Pierre), each with distinctive micro-climates, were selected to assess the thermal discomfort levels under future climate scenarios (RCP 4.5, RCP 6.0 and RCP 8.5). The results show that, in 2100, discomfort levels during occupancy periods will increase by a maximum of 15% in Port Louis, while the other 2 regions will have an increase of 11%, under the worst scenario, while using natural ventilation. Results, thus, establish that natural ventilation will not be efficient under the impact of climate change, although varying for different climate conditions. This research indicates that there is a need to shift from natural ventilation as traditional cooling method to other energy driven method such as Heating, Ventilation and Air conditioning (HVAC system) and hybrid mixed-mode systems for future climate change adaptation.
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