Statistical Prediction of Case Closure Status and Time Spent at a Rehabilitation Clinic: A Cost-Effectiveness Perspective

Abstract

Over the years there has been an increasing interest in problems concerning rational organization and consequently containment of costs within the social and health service sector. One of the possibilities consists of more precise prediction of clients' fates, and consequently more rational and specific selection of clients for social and health programmes. In this study, the case closure status of 612 clients in a Danish rehabilitation clinic has been investigated as a function of social background and health. Recommendation for continued rehabilitation or for referring the client to the labour market depended on age, marital status, occupational history, and the presence of mental illness. A considerable part of the clinic's capacity was spent on clients with poor outlooks and clients with a relatively good probability of successful rehabilitation, the probabilities being estimated on the basis of biographical and health data available before the stay at the clinic. Since the clinic has mainly diagnostic tasks, the proper client target group could be said to consist of persons with relatively uncertain rehabilitation prospects.

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