Risk and causes of death between 40 and 70 years of age in the Nordic countries 1951–2010

Abstract

Aims: Use time trends in cause-specific middle-age death risk to study differences in mortality patterns among the Nordic countries. Methods: Middle-age (40–69 years) death risk and its decomposition into cause-specific death risks were computed. Results: In 1952, middle-age death risk was highest in Finland and lowest in Norway. For men, the death risk at the age of 40–69 years stagnated or increased during the first 20–30 years after 1950. From 1970–1980 until present time, there has been a strong decrease in male middle-age death risk. For women, there was a strong decreasing trend during the whole study period with the exception of Denmark. For 20 years from the late 1970s, the death risk at 40–69 years increased for Danish women followed by a sharp decrease from the mid-1990s. The main driver of the initial upward trend in men and downward trends in both men and women were changing death risks from circulatory disease. The upward trend in Danish women was driven by increased death risk from non-circulatory diseases that also gave an untoward trend in Danish men. Middle-age death risks converged after 1990 for Danish and Finnish men at a higher level than in the three other countries. In 2010, middle-age death risk in Finnish women, who had the highest level in 1952, converged with Norway, Sweden and Iceland at a risk much below Danish women. Conclusions: Trends in risk and causes of middle-age death from 1951–2010 showed important variation among the five Nordic countries and between men and women.