This article tries to examine the relevance of the three distinct types of the growth models, namely, physical capital accumulation-led growth, export-led growth and Lucas-type human capital accumulation-led growth in India taking a long-time series data from 1950–51 to 2003–04. Employing the Johansen's cointegration and error correction model, we find that human capital investment plays a crucial role both in the long run as well as in the short run. The export-led growth hypothesis is partially valid whereas the physical capital investment-led growth appears to be insignificant in our findings.
Bacha, E.L. (1990), ‘ A Three-Gap Model of Foreign Transfers and the GDP Growth Rate in Developing Countries ’, Journal of Development Economics, 32: 279–96 .
2.
Bahmani-Oskooee, M. , H. Mohtadi and G. Shabsingh (1991), ‘ Exports, Growth and Causality in LDCs: A Re-examination ’, Journal of Development Economics, 36(October): 405–15 .
3.
Bahmani-Oskooee, M. and J. Alse (1993), ‘ Export Growth and Economic Growth: An Application of Cointegration and Error Correction Modeling ’, Journal of Developing Areas, 27(July): 535–42 .
4.
Bahmani-Oskooee, M. , C. Economidou and G.G. Goswami (2005), ‘ Export-led Growth Hypotheses Revisited: A Panel Cointegration Approach ’, Scientific Journal of Administrative Development, 3: 40–55 .
5.
Barro, Robert J. (1997), Determinants of Economic Growth: A Cross-Country Empirical Study. Cambridge, MA: MIT Press .
6.
Barro, Robert J. and Xavier Sala-i-Martin (1992), ‘ Convergence ’, Journal of Political Economy, 100(April): 223–51 .
7.
Barro, Robert J. (1995), Economic Growth. Cambridge, MA: MIT Press .
8.
Barro, Robert J. (1997), Economic Growth. Cambridge, MA: MIT Press .
9.
Bils, Mark and Peter J. Klenow (2000), ‘ Does Schooling Cause Growth? ’, The American Economic Review, 90(5): 1160–83 .
10.
Bird, G. (2001), ‘ IMF Programmes: Do They Work? Can They be Made to Work Better? ’, World Development, 29(11): 3–11 .
11.
Brempong, Kwabena G. and Mark Wilson (2004), ‘ Health Human Capital and Economic Growth in Sub-Saharan African and OECD Countries ’, The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, 44: 296–320 .
12.
Charemza, W.W. and D.F. Readman (1997), New Directions in Econometric Practice: General to Specific Modelling, Cointegration and Vector Autoregression, 2nd edition. Cheltenham: Edward Elgar .
13.
Chow, P.C.Y. (1987), ‘ Causality between Export Growth and Industrial Development: Empirical Evidence from the NICs ’, Journal of Development Economics, 26: 55–63 .
14.
Dickey, D.A. and W.F. Fuller (1979), ‘ Distribution of the Estimators for Autoregressive Time Series with a Unit Root ’, Journal of the American Statistical Association, 74(June): 427–31 .
15.
Dickey, D.A. and W.F. Fuller (1981), ‘ Likelihood Ratio Statistics for Autoregressive Time Series with a Unit Root ’, Econometrica, 49(July): 1057–72 .
16.
Dickey, D. , W. Bell and R. Miller (1986), ‘ Unit Root in Time Series Models: Tests and Implications ’, American Statistician, 40: 12–26 .
17.
Dickey, D.A. , D.W. Jansen and D.L. Thornton (1994), ‘A Primer on Cointegration with an Application to Money and Income’, in B.B. Rao (ed.), Cointegration for the Applied Economist. New York: St. Martin's Press .
18.
Dodaro, S. (1993), ‘ Exports and Growth: A Re-consideration of Causality ’, Journal of Developing Areas, 27: 227–44 .
19.
Domar, E. (1957), Essays in the Theory of Economic Growth. New York: Oxford University Press .
20.
Enders, Walter (2004), Applied Econometric Time Series. New Delhi: John Wiley & Sons Pvt. Ltd .
21.
Enders, Walter and Pierre Siklos (2001), ‘ Cointegration and Threshold Adjustment ’, Journal of Business and Economic Statistics, 19: 166–76 .
22.
Engle, R.F. and C.W.J. Granger (1987), ‘ Cointegration and Error Correction: Representation, Estimation and Testing ’, Econometrica, 55(March): 251–76 .
23.
Feder, G. (1983), ‘ On Exports and Economic Growth ’, Journal of Development Economics, 12(1–2): 59–73 .
24.
Goetz, Stephen J. and Dayuan Hu (1996), ‘ Economic Growth and Human Capital Accumulation: Simultaneity and Expanded Convergence Tests ’, Economic Letters, 51: 355–62 .
Gundlach, Erich (2001), ‘ Education and Economic Development: An Empirical Perspective ’, Journal of Economic Development, 26(1), June: 17–28 .
27.
Gupta, K.L. (1975), ‘ Foreign Capital Inflows, Dependency Burden, and Savings Rates in Developing Countries: A Simultaneous Equation Model ’, Kyklos, 28(2): 358–74 .
28.
Harrod, R.F. (1948), Towards a Dynamic Economics: Some Recent Developments of Economic Theory and their Application to Policy. London: Macmillan .
29.
Hutchinson, M. and N. Singh (1992), ‘ Exports, Non-exports and Externalities: A Granger Causality Approach ’, International Economic Journal, 6: 79–94 .
30.
Johansen, S. (1988), ‘ Statistical Analysis of Cointegration Vectors ’, Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, 12(June–September): 231–54 .
31.
Johansen, S. (1992), ‘ Determination of Cointegration Rank in the Presence of a Linear Trend ’, Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, 54: 383–97 .
32.
Johansen, S. (1994), lsquo; The Role of the Constant and Linear Terms in Cointegration Analysis of Non-stationary Variables ’, Econometric Reviews, 13: 205–30 .
33.
Johansen, S. and K. Juselius (1990), ‘ Maximum Likelihood Estimation and Inference on Cointegration: With Application to Demand for Money ’, Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, 52: 169–210 .
34.
Jones, I. Charles (1995), ‘ Time Series Tests of Endogenous Growth Models ’, The Quarterly Journal of Economics, 110(2): 495–525 .
35.
Kaldor, Nicholas (1961), ‘Capital Accumulation and Economic Growth’, in F.A. Lutz and D.C. Hague (eds), The Theory of Capital. New York: St. Martins .
36.
Kavoussi, R.M. (1984), ‘ Export Expansion and Economic Growth: Further Empirical Evidence ’, Journal of Development Economics, 14: 241–50 .
37.
Kugler, P. and J. Dridi (1993), ‘ Growth and Exports in LDCs: A Multivariate Time Series Study ’, International Review of Economics and Business, 40: 759–67 .
38.
Love, Jim and Ramesh Chandra (2004), ‘ An Index of Openness and its Relationship with Growth in India ’, The Journal of Developing Areas, 38(1): 37–54 .
39.
Lucas, R.E. (1988), ‘ On the Mechanics of Economic Development ’, Journal of Monetary Economics, 22(1) July: 3–42 .
40.
MacKinnon, J.G. (1991), ‘Critical Values of Cointegration Tests’, in R.F. Engle and C.W.J. Granger (eds), Long-Run Econometric Relationships: Readings in Cointegration. New York: Oxford University Press .
41.
Mallick, K. Susanta (2001), ‘ Dynamics of Macroeconomic Adjustment with Growth: Some Simulation Results ’, International Economic Journal, 15(1): 115–39 .
42.
Mallick, K. Susanta (2002), ‘ Determinants of Long-Term Growth in India: A Keynesian Approach ’, Progress in Development Studies, 2(4): 306–24 .
43.
Mankiw, N. Gregory (1995), ‘The Growth of Nations’. Harvard Institute of Economic Research Working Papers, 1732, Harvard Institute of Economic Research .
44.
Mankiw, N. Gregory , David Romer and David Weil (1992), ‘ A Contribution to the Empirics of Economic Growth ’, Quarterly Journal of Economics, 107(May): 407–38 .
45.
Marjit, S. and Ajitava Raychaudhuri (1997), India's Exports: An Analytical Study. Delhi: Oxford University Press .
46.
McMahon, Walter W. (1987), ‘ The Relation of Education and R&D to Productivity Growth in the Developing Countries of Africa ’, Economics of Education Review, 6(1): 183–94 .
47.
McMahon, Walter W. (1998), ‘ Education and Growth in East Asia ’, Economics of Education Review, 17(2): 159–72 .
48.
McMahon, Walter W. (1999), Education and Development: Measuring the Social Benefits. New York: Oxford University Press .
49.
National Accounts Statistics (2004), Planning Commission, Government of India. New Delhi .
50.
Oketch, Moses O. (2006), ‘ Determinants of Human Capital Formation and Economic Growth of African Countries ’, Economics of Education Review, 25: 554–64 .
51.
Ouattara, B. (2004), ‘ The Impact of Project Aid and Programme Aid on Domestic Savings: A Case Study of Cote d'Ivoire ’, Centre for the Study of African Economies, Conference on Growth, Poverty Reduction and Human Development in Africa, April.
52.
Palley, T.I. (1997), ‘ Aggregate Demand and Endogenous Growth: A Generalized Keynes-Kaldor Model of Economic Growth ’, Metro-economica, 48(2): 161–76 .
53.
Perkins, D.H. (1997), Economic Systems Reform in Developing Countries. Boston: Harvard Institute for International Affairs .
54.
Perron, Pierre (1997), ‘ Further Evidence on Breaking Trend Functions in Macroeconomic Variables ’, Journal of Econometrics, 80: 355–85 .
55.
Perron, Pierre and Timothy Vogelsang (1992), ‘ Nonstationary and Level Shifts with an Application to Purchasing Power Parity ’, Journal of Business and Economic Statistics, 10: 301–20 .
56.
Pesaren, M.H. and Y. Shin (1995), ‘An Autoregressive Distributed Lag Modelling Approach to Cointegration Analysis’. DAE Working Paper No. 9514, Department of Applied Economics, University of Cambridge .
57.
Pesaren, M.H. , Y. Shin and R.J. Smith (2001), ‘ Bounds Testing Approaches to the Analysis of Level Relationship ’, Journal of Applied Econometrics, 16: 289–326 .
58.
Phillips, P.C. and P. Perron (1988), ‘ Testing for a Unit Root in a Time Series Regression ’, Biometrica, 75(2): 335–46 .
59.
Rao, B. Bhaskara and R. Gounder (2007), ‘The Level and Growth Effects in the Empirics of Economic Growth’. MPRA Paper No. 1841, November 2007.
60.
Rebelo, S. (1991), ‘ Long-Run Policy Analysis and Long-Run Growth ’, Journal of Political Economy, 99(3): 500–21 .
61.
Romer, Paul M. (1986), ‘ Increasing Returns and Long-Run Growth ,' Journal of Political Economy, 94(5): 1002–37 .
62.
Romer, Paul M. (1987), ‘Crazy Explanations for the Productivity Slowdown’, in Stanley Fischer (ed.), NBER Macroeconomics Annual 1987. Cambridge, MA: MIT Press .
63.
Romer, Paul M. (1990), ‘ Endogenous Technical Change ’, Journal of Political Economy, 98(October): S71–S102 .
64.
Sala-i-Martin, Xavier (1997), ‘I Just Ran Four Million Regressions’. National Bureau of Economic Research, Working Paper No. 6252, November, Cambridge, MA .
65.
Sarkar, P. (2006), ‘Trade Openness and Growth: Is there any link?’, presented at the Political Economy Seminar, 10 October 2006. SOAS, University of London, UK (Forthcoming in Journal of Economic Issues).
66.
Seddighi, H.R. , K.A. Lawler and A.V. Katos (2000), Econometrics: A Practical Approach. London and New York: Routledge .
67.
Self, Sharmistha and Richard Grabowski (2004), ‘ Does Education at all Levels Cause Growth? India, a Case Study ’, Economics of Education Review, 23: 47–55 .
68.
Solow, Robert M. (1956), ‘ A Contribution to the Theory of Economic Growth ’, Quarterly Journal of Economics, 70(February): 65–94 .
69.
Taylor, L. (1991), Income Distribution, Inflation and Growth. Cambridge, MA: MIT Press .
70.
Temple, Jonathan (1999), ‘ A Positive Effect of Human Capital on Growth ’, Economic Letters, 65: 131–34 .
71.
Tyler, W. (1981), ‘ Growth and Export Expansion in Developing Countries: Some Empirical Evidence ’, Journal of Development Economics, 9: 121–30 .
72.
UNDP (2003), Human Development Report, Great Clarendon Street. New Delhi: Oxford .
73.
UNESCO (1977), Statistics of Educational Attainment and Illiteracy, 1945–1974. Paris: United Nations .
74.
UNESCO (1983), Statistics of Educational Attainment and Illiteracy, 1970–1980. Paris: United Nations .
75.
Van den Berg, H. and J.R. Schmidt (1994), ‘ Foreign Trade and Economic Growth: Time Series Evidence from Latin America ’, Journal of International Trade and Economic Development, 3: 249–68 .
76.
von Neumann, John (1937), ‘ Über ein Ökonomisches Gleichungssystem und eine Verallgemeinerung des Brouwerschen ’, Ergebnisse eines Mathematische Kolloquiums, 8, translated by Karl Menger as ‘A Model of General Equilibrium’, Review of Economic Studies (1945), 13, 1–9.
77.
Wang, Yan and Youdong Yao (2003), ‘ Sources of China's Economic Growth 1952–1999: Incorporating Human Capital Accumulation ’, China Economic Review, 14: 32–52 .
78.
Wolff, Edward N. (2000), ‘ Human Capital Investment and Economic Growth: Exploring the Cross-Country Evidence ’, Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, 11: 433–72 .
79.
World Bank (2001), ‘Macroeconomics and Health: Investing in Health for Economic Development’, Report of the Commission on Macroeconomics and Health, Geneva: WHO , pp. 1–213.