In social policy debates, there are fundamentally different views of links between such key variables as employment, low pay, social transfers and poverty. This paper reviews basic empirical evidence on the validity of these views and the policy prescriptions that follow from them, drawing mainly on cross-country comparative studies. These reveal that clear and striking cross-country correlations prevail, but not, as is often so readily suggested, between low pay (wage compression) and employment performance, or between employment performance and poverty. Instead, results indicate a strong but negative cross-country correlation between the level of social spending and the incidence of poverty, as well as a strong and positive cross-country correlation between the incidence of low pay and the incidence of relative poverty. While the former correlation has become part of the received wisdom in social policy research, the latter is more surprising, as the correlation is not due to a strong link between low pay and poverty at the individual level. In addition, the incidence of low wage employment and social expenditure are also strongly and (negatively) related.
We examine these correlations in more depth, particularly the link between the level of social spending and poverty. Since there is such a clear and strong negative link between the level of social expenditure and the level of poverty, it is tempting to think that more social spending offers an easy means of reducing poverty. However, a simple simulation exercise using Luxemburg Income Study data from the mid 90's suggests that putting more money into social transfer systems as they currently exist in the EU would not have a positive outcome on poverty rates in all countries. In the final section of the paper, we briefly summarise the results, and put forward a recommendation for further research.
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