Improved time-dependent seismic fragility estimates for deteriorating RC bridge substructures exposed to chloride attack

Abstract

RC bridge substructures exposed to chloride environments inevitably suffer from corrosion of reinforcement embodied in concrete. This deterioration issue leads to the loss of reinforcement areas and a reduction in seismic capacity of reinforced concrete (RC) bridge substructures. To quantify the effect of steel corrosion on seismic fragility estimates, this paper proposes an improved time-dependent seismic fragility framework by taking into account the increase in the corrosion rate after concrete cracking and the reduction in seismic capacity of RC bridge substructures during the service life. Additionally, an analytical method based on a back propagation artificial neural network (BP-ANN) is proposed to provide probabilistic capacity estimates of deteriorating RC substructures. A three-span T-shaped girder bridge is selected as a case study bridge to provide improved time-dependent seismic fragility estimates that consider uncertainties in the material properties, geometric parameters, deterioration process and ground motions. The obtained fragility curves show that there is a nonlinear increase in the exceedance probability of deteriorating RC bridge substructures for different damage states during the service life. In addition, time-dependent seismic fragility analysis shows that the cases of considering only the effect of an increase in seismic demand or the reduction in seismic capacity as well as neither of them may lead to a significant underestimation of the seismic vulnerability of deteriorating RC bridge substructures.