The European Union is broadly considered a benign reform actor, encouraging and supporting reforms in member states and beyond. However, European Union-induced reforms do not only generate the intended effects; they can also trigger unintended consequences for other reforms. These unintended consequences occur primarily through the impact of European Union-induced reforms on the resources available. The scope and size of the unintended effects will be conditioned by the domestic cycles in economic and public policy-making. Here, we apply our analytical framework to study the resilience of governance reforms in Greece during the period of fiscal consolidation (2010–2015), highlighting the unintended consequences of the European Union’s ‘reform actorness’. We find that the distinction between financial and non-financial resources is critical in unpacking the unintended consequences of any exogenously driven reform. Depending on the current stage in the cycles, the impact on non-financial resources can generate positive side-effects that help prevent other ongoing domestic reforms being derailed.
BeckerBLinderS (2021) The unintended consequences of regulatory import: The Basel Accord’s failure during the financial crisis. Journal of European Public Policy28(2): 248–267.
2.
BeyerD (2018) The neglected effects of Europeanization in the member states: Policy-making in directly EU-influenced and sovereign domains. Journal of European Public Policy25(9): 1294–1316.
3.
BlavoukosSPagoulatosG (2008) The Limits of EMU conditionality: Fiscal adjustment in Southern Europe. Journal of Public Policy28(2): 229–253.
4.
BörzelTAPamukY (2012) Pathologies of Europeanisation: Fighting corruption in the Southern Caucasus. West European Politics35(1): 79–97.
5.
BörzelTARisseT (2012) When Europeanisation meets diffusion: Exploring new territory. West European Politics35(1): 192–207.
6.
BörzelTADimitrovaASchimmelfennigF (2017) European Union enlargement and integration capacity: Concepts, findings, and policy implications. Journal of European Public Policy24(2): 157–176.
7.
BurlyukO (2017) The ‘oops!’ of EU engagement abroad: Analyzing unintended consequences of EU external action. Journal of Common Market Studies55(5): 1009–1025.
8.
BurlyukONoutchevaG (2019) Unintended consequences of EU external action. The International Spectator54(1): 1–15.
9.
BurnsAFMitchellCW (1946) Measuring Business Cycles. New York: National Bureau of Economic Research.
10.
CohenSHlepasN (2017) Financial resilience of Greek local governments. In: SteccoliniIJonesMSalitererI (eds) Governmental Financial Resilience: International Perspectives on How Local Governments Face Austerity. Bingley: Emerald Publishing Limited, pp.135–152.
11.
Committee of the Regions (2009) White paper on multilevel governance. Official Journal of the European Union C 211, 4September.
12.
de ZwartF (2015) Unintended but not unanticipated consequences. Theory and Society44: 283–297.
13.
Dexia (2012) Subnational Public Finance in the European Union. La Defense: Dexia Editions.
14.
DimitrakopoulosD (2001) Unintended consequences: Institutional autonomy and executive discretion in the European Union. Journal of Public Policy21(2): 107–131.
15.
EgebergMTrondalJ (2018) An Organizational Approach to Public Governance. Oxford: Oxford University Press.
16.
European Commission (2001) European governance – A white paper. COM(2001) 428 final. Official Journal of the European Communities C 287, 12October.
17.
European Commission (2010) The economic adjustment programme for Greece: Second review – Autumn 2010. European economy, occasional papers 72, December. Brussels: European Commission.
18.
European Commission (2012) Task force for Greece: Second quarterly report. Report, March. European Commission, Brussels.
19.
European Commission (2013) The second economic adjustment programme for Greece: Second review. European economy occasional papers 148, May. Brussels: European Commission.
20.
European Commission (2014) Statistical Annex of European Economy: Autumn 2014, Brussels: European Commission.
21.
ExadaktylosTRadaelliC (2015) Europeanization. In: LynggaardKMannersILöfgrenK (eds) Research Methods in European Union Studies. Basingstoke: Palgrave Macmillan, pp.216–218.
22.
ExadaktylosTGrazianoPRVinkMP (2020) Europeanization: Concept, theory, and methods. In: BulmerSLequesneC (eds) The Member States of the European Union. Oxford: Oxford University Press, pp.47–69.
23.
FeatherstoneK (2011) The Greek sovereign debt crisis and EMU: A failing state in a skewed regime. Journal of Common Market Studies49(2): 193–217.
24.
FeatherstoneK (2015) External conditionality and the debt crisis: The ‘Troika’ and public administration reform in Greece. Journal of European Public Policy22(3): 295–314.
25.
FreyburgTLavenexSSchimmelfennigF, et al. (2009) EU promotion of democratic governance in the neighbourhood. Journal of European Public Policy16(6): 916–934.
26.
HillH (2003) Understanding implementation: Street-level bureaucrats’ resources for reform. Journal of Public Administration Research and Theory13(3): 265–282.
27.
HillM (2005) The Public Policy Process, 4th edn.Harlow: Pearson-Longman.
28.
HirschmanAO (1991) The Rhetoric of Reaction: Perversity, Futility, Jeopardy. Cambridge, MA: Belknap Press, Harvard University Press.
29.
HlepasNK (2016) Is it the twilight of decentralization? Testing the limits of functional reforms in the era of austerity. International Review of Administrative Science82(2): 273–290.
30.
HlepasNK (2020) Checking the mechanics of Europeanization in a centralist state: The case of Greece. Regional and Federal Studies30(2): 243–261.
31.
HoodCMargettsHPerri6 (2010) The drive to modernize: A world of surprises? In: MargettsHPerri6HoodC (eds) Paradoxes of Modernization: Unintended Consequences of Public Policy Reform. Oxford: Oxford University Press, pp.3–16.
32.
KatsikasDAnastasatouMNitsiE, et al. (2018) Structural Reforms in Greece during the Crisis: 2010–2014 – Overview, Evaluation and Policy Proposals: Hellenic Crisis Observatory. Athens: ELIAMEP.
33.
KlitgaardR (1997) ‘Unanticipated consequences’ in anti-poverty programmes. World Development25(12): 1963–1972.
34.
KochDJBurlyukO (2020) Bounded policy learning? EU efforts to anticipate unintended consequences in conflict minerals legislation. Journal of European Public Policy27(10): 1441–1462.
35.
KrasnodębskaM (2018) The Ukraine crisis as an unintended consequence of the EU’s public diplomacy: Reception of the EU’s narrative in Ukraine. The Hague Journal of Diplomacy13(3): 345–365.
36.
KratochvílPCibulcováPBeníkM (2011) The EU as a ‘framing actor’: Reflections on media debates about EU foreign policy. Journal of Common Market Studies49(2): 391–412.
37.
LadiS (2014) Austerity politics and administrative reform: The eurozone crisis and its impact upon Greek public administration. Comparative European Politics12(2): 184–208.
38.
LaffanB (2001) The European Union polity: A union of regulative, normative and cognitive pillars. Journal of European Public Policy8(5): 709–727.
39.
LampropoulouM (2020) Policy responses to the eurozone crisis: A comparative analysis of southern European administrations. Public Policy and Administration35(3): 289–311.
40.
LeuffenDRittbergerBSchimmelfennigF (2013) Differentiated Integration: Explaining Variation in the European Union. Basingstoke: Palgrave Macmillan.
41.
LippiATsekosTN (2019) Introduction: Local public services in times of austerity. In: LippiATsekosTN (eds) Local Public Services in Times of Austerity across Mediterranean Europe. Basingstoke: Palgrave Macmillan, pp.1–23.
42.
MertonRK (1936) The unanticipated consequences of purposive social action. American Sociological Review1(6): 894–904.
43.
Ministry of Finance (2010) Introductory Report to the 2011 Budget. Athens: Ministry of Finance.
44.
Ministry of the Interior (2010) Introductory Report to the ‘Kallikrates’ Reform Program. Athens: Ministry of the Interior.
45.
MurphyK (2013) Regulating banking bonuses in the European Union: A case study in unintended consequences. Research papers series no. C13-82013:1–39. New York: Center for Law, Economic and Organization Research.
46.
OikonomouG (2020) The impact of the European Union on reforming the Greek governance system: Subnational mobilization in comparative perspective. In: PapazoglouMApostolopoulosN (eds) The Impact of EU Structural and Investment Funds on Greece (1981–2019): Successes, Failures, Lessons Learned and Comparisons with Other EU Members. Athens: Jean Monnet Centre of Excellence, University of the Peloponnese (Papazissis Publishers), pp.359–375.
47.
OikonomouGTryposkoufisC (2019) Multi-level governance in Greece: The financial component of the centre-periphery relation. In: BaltaEG (ed.) Public Governance: Challenges and Prospects in the 21st Century. Athens: Sakkoula, pp.637–649 (in Greek).
48.
PagoulatosG (2012) The political economy of forced reform and the 2010 Greek economic adjustment programme. In: KalyvasSPagoulatosGTsoukasH (eds) From Stagnation to Forced Adjustment: Reforms in Greece 1974–2010. London: Hurst and Company, pp.67–89.
49.
PagoulatosG (2018) Greece after the bailouts: Assessment of a qualified failure. Hellenic observatory discussion papers on Greece and southeast Europe, Greece paper no. 130. Available at: http://eprints.lse.ac.uk/91957/ (accessed 27 January 2021).
50.
PapadimitriouDZartaloudisS (2020) Greece: A critical test case of Europeanization. In: BulmerSLequesneC (eds) The Member States of the European Union. Oxford: Oxford University Press, pp.123–148.
51.
Perri6 (2010) When forethought and outturn part: Types of unanticipated and unintended consequences. In: MargettsHPerri6HoodC (eds) Paradoxes of Modernization: Unintended Consequences of Public Policy Reform. Oxford: Oxford University Press, pp.44–60.
52.
PhinnemoreDWarleigh-LackA (eds) (2009) Reflections on European Integration. Basingstoke: Palgrave Macmillan.
53.
RadaelliC (2020) The Europeanization of member state policy. In: BulmerSLequesneC (eds) The Member States of the European Union. Oxford: Oxford University Press, pp.377–398.
54.
Randma-LiivTKickertW (2017) The impact of the fiscal crisis on public administration reforms: Comparison of 14 European countries. Journal of Comparative Policy Analysis: Research and Practice19: 2155–2172.
55.
Randma-LiivTKickertW (2018) The impact of fiscal crisis on public administration in Europe. In: OngaroEvan ThielS (eds) The Palgrave Handbook of Public Administration in Europe, vol. 2. London: Palgrave Macmillan, pp.899–917.
SabatierP (1986) Top-down and bottom-up approaches to implementation research: A critical analysis and suggested synthesis. Journal of Public Policy6(1): 21–48.
58.
SpanouC (2012) The quandary of administrative reform: Institutional and performance modernization. In: KalyvasSPagoulatosGTsoukasH (eds) From Stagnation to Forced Adjustment: Reforms in Greece 1974–2010. London: Hurst and Company, pp.171–194.
59.
ThomannEZhelyaskovaA (2017) Moving beyond non-compliance: Customization of European Union policies in 27 countries. Journal of European Public Policy24(9): 1269–1288.
60.
TörökZ (2020) Unintended outcomes effects of the European Union and the International Monetary Fund on Hungary’s public sector and administrative reforms. Public Policy and Administration35(2): 158–178.
61.
TsekosTNHlepasNK (2019) Greek municipalities before and during the austerity era: Imposed policies, local resistance and unsuccessful reforms. In: LippiATsekosTN (eds) Local Public Services in Times of Austerity across Mediterranean Europe. Basingstoke: Palgrave Macmillan, pp.49–71.
62.
ZahariadisN (2015) Austerity and EU influence. In: ZeffEEPirroEB (eds) The European Union and the Member States. Boulder, CO: Lynne Rienner Publishers, pp.169–188.
