This study examines effects of negative campaigning by political parties on citizens’ electoral preferences in the 2015 General Election in England. We do so by using a large Internet panel study and an operationalisation of (perceived) negative campaigning that avoids social desirability. Our study acknowledges England’s multiparty system by distinguishing between the campaign tones of all parties. Potential problems of endogeneity are addressed by leveraging the panel structure of the data and by extensive controls. We find that electoral preferences are weakened for parties engaging in negative campaigning and that this backlash effect gets stronger over the course of the campaign. We also find support for a second-preferences boost hypothesis: preferences for one’s second-most preferred party are strengthened if its campaign is more positive than that of one’s most-preferred party.
AdcockRCollierD (2001) Measurement Validity: A Shared Standard for Qualitative and Quantitative Research. American Political Science Review95(3): 529–546.
2.
AnsolabehereSIyengarS (1995) Going Negative: How Political Advertisements Shrink and Polarize the Electorate. New York: Free Press.
3.
AnsolabehereSDIyengarSSimonA, et al. (1994) Does attack advertising demobilize the electorate?American Political Science Review88(4): 829–838.
4.
ArcenauxKNickersonD (2010) Comparing negative and positive campaign messages: Evidence from two field experiments. American Politics Research38(1): 54–83.
5.
BartoliniS (2002) Electoral and party competition: Analytical dimensions and empirical problems. In: GuntherMLinzJ (eds) Political Parties Old Concepts and New Challenges. Oxford: Oxford University Press, pp.84–110.
6.
BraderT (2005) Striking a responsive chord: How political ads motivate and persuade voters by appealing to emotions. American Journal of Political Science49: 388–405.
7.
BrantsKKokWPraagP, et al. (1982) De strijd om de Kiezersgunst, Verkiezingscampagnes in Nederland. Amsterdam: Kobra.
8.
BudesheimTLHoustonDADe PaolaSJ (1996) Persuasiveness of in-group and out-group political messages: The case of negative campaigning. Journal of Personality and Social Psychology70: 523–534.
9.
CeronAd’ AddaG (2015) E-campaigning on Twitter: The effectiveness of distributive promises and negative campaign in the 2013 Italian election. New Media & Society18: 1935–1955.
10.
ChangC (2003) Party bias in political advertising processing. Journal of Advertising32: 55–67.
11.
CowleyPKavanaghD (2018) The British General Election of 2017. New York: Springer.
DesposatoS (2007) The Impact of Campaign Messages in New Democracies: Results From An Experiment in Brazil. Working Paper, 29May. Available at: http://pages.ucsd.edu/~sdesposato/exp1.pdf
14.
DowlingCMWichowskyA (2015) Attacks without consequence? Candidates, parties, groups and the changing face of negative advertising. American Journal of Political Science59(1): 19–36.
15.
DownsA (1957) An Economic Theory of Democracy. New York: Harper & Row.
16.
ElkinsDE (1974) The measurement of party competition. American Political Science Review68(2): 682–700.
17.
Elmelund-PræstekærC (2008) Negative campaigning in a multiparty system. Representation44: 27–39.
18.
Elmelund-PræstekærC (2010) Beyond American negativity: Toward a general understanding of the determinants of negative campaigning. European Political Science Review2: 137–156.
19.
FieldhouseEGreenJEvansG, et al. (2015) British Election Study Internet Panel Waves. DOI: 10.15127/1.293723.
20.
FisherJCuttsDFieldhouseE (2016) Survey of election agents for study of constituency campaigning at the 2015 British general election. Colchester: UK Data Archive.
21.
FranklinMRenkoM (2013) Studying party choice. In: BruterMLodgeM (eds) Political Science Research Methods in Action. Basingstoke: Palgrave Macmillan, pp.93–118.
22.
FridkinKLKenneyPJ (2004) Do negative messages work? The impact of negativity on citizens’ evaluations of candidates. American Politics Research32(5): 570–605.
23.
FridkinKLKenneyPJ (2011) Variability in citizens’ reactions to different types of negative campaigns. American Journal of Political Science55(2): 307–325.
24.
FridkinKLKenneyPJ (2012) The impact of negative campaigning on citizens actions and attitudes. In: SemetkoHAScammellM (eds) The SAGE Handbook of Political Communication. London: SAGE Publishing, pp.173–185.
25.
GeerJ (2006) In Defense of Negativity, Attack Ads in Presidential Campaigns. Chicago, IL: Chicago University Press.
26.
GreenJProsserC (2016) Party system fragmentation and single-party government: The British general election of 2015. West European Politics39(6): 1299–1310.
27.
HaddockGZannaMP (1997) Impact of negative advertising on evaluations of political candidates: The 1993 Canadian federal election. Basic and Applied Social Psychology18: 204–223.
28.
HansenKMPedersenRT (2008) Negative campaigning in a multiparty system. Scandinavian Political Studies31: 408–427.
29.
HillRP (1989) An exploration of voter responses to political advertisements. Journal of Advertising18: 14–22.
30.
HoustonDADoanK (1999) Can you back that up?Media Psychology1(3): 191–206.
31.
JaspersonAEFanDP (2002) An aggregate examination of the backlash effect in political advertising: The case of the 1996 US Senate race in Minnesota. Journal of Advertising31(1): 1–12.
32.
Johnson-CarteeKSCopelandGJohnsonEE (1991) Negative Advertising: Coming of Age. London: Lawrence Erlbaum.
33.
KahnKFGeerJG (1994) Creating impressions: An experimental investigation of political advertising on television. Political Behaviour15: 93–116.
34.
KahnKFKenneyPJ (1999) Does negative campaigns mobilize or supress turnout? Clarifying the relationship between negativity and participation. American Political Science Review93(4): 877–889.
35.
KaidLLBoydstonJ (1987) An experimental study of the effectiveness of negative political advertisements. Communication Quarterly35(2): 193–201.
36.
KaidLL (1997) Effects of the television spots on images of Dole and Clinton. American Behavioral Scientist40(8): 1085–1094.
37.
KaidLLHoltz-BachaC (2006) The Sage Handbook of Political Advertising. London: SAGE Publishing.
KingJDMcConnellJB (2003) The effect of negative campaign advertising on vote choice: The mediating influence of gender. Social Science Quarterly84(4): 843–857.
40.
KrohMvan der BrugWvan der EijkC (2007) Prospects for electoral change. In: van der BrugWvan der EijkC (eds) European elections and domestic politics – Lessons from the past and scenarios for the future. Notre Dame (In): University of Notre Dame Press, pp.209–225.
41.
KrupnikovY (2011) When does negativity demobilize? Tracing the conditional effect of negative campaigning on voter turnout. American Journal of Political Science55(4): 796–812.
42.
LauRRPomperGM (2004) Negative campaigning: An analysis of U.S. Senate Elections. London: Rowman & Littlefield Publishers.
43.
LauRRRovnerIB (2009) Negative campaigning. The Annual Review of Political Science12: 285–306.
44.
LauRRSigelmanLRovnerIB (2007) The effects of political campaigns: a meta-analytic reassessment. Journal of Politics69(4): 1176–1209.
45.
LemertJWantaWLeeTT (1999) Party identification and negative advertising in a U.S. senate election. Journal of Communication49(2): 123–136.
46.
MaierJMaierM (2007) Audience reactions to negative campaigns spots in the 2005 German national elections: The case of two ads called ‘the ball’. Human Communication10(3): 29–344.
47.
MartinezMDDelegalT (1990) The irrelevance of negative campaigns to political trust: Experimental and survey results. Political Communication and Persuasion7: 25–40.
48.
MathewsDDietz-UhlerB (1998) The black-sheep effect: How positive and negative advertisements affects voters’ perceptions of the sponsor of the advertisement. Journal of Applied Social Psychology28: 1903–1915.
49.
MattesKRedlawskDP (2014) The Positive Case for Negative Campaigning. London: The University of Chicago.
50.
MerrittS (1984) Negative political advertising: Some empirical findings. Journal of Advertising13: 27–38.
51.
MinY (2004) News coverage of negative political campaigns: An experiment of negative campaign effects on turnout and candidate preference. Harvard International Journal of Press9(4): 95–111.
52.
MokkenRJ (1971) A theory and procedure of scale analysis with applications in political research. New York: De Gruyter.
53.
PattieCDenverDJohnsR, et al. (2011) Raising the tone? The impact of ‘positive’ and ‘negative’ campaigning on voting in the 2007 Scottish parliament election. Electoral Studies30(2): 333–343.
54.
PinkletonB (1997) The effects of negative comparative political advertising on candidate evaluations and advertising evaluations: An exploration. Journal of Advertising26(1): 19–29.
55.
PinkletonB (1998) Effects of print comparative political advertising on candidate evaluations and advertising evaluations: An exploration. Journal of Advertising26: 19–29.
56.
PinkletonBUmNHAustinEW (2002) An exploration of the effects of negative political advertising on political decision making. Journal of Advertising31: 13–26.
57.
RidoutTFowlerEF (2012) Explaining perceptions of advertising tone. Political Research Quarterly65(1): 62–75.
58.
RidoutTFranzM (2008) Evaluating measures of campaign tone. Political Communication25(2): 158–179.
59.
RidoutTWalterAS (2015) Party system change and negative campaigning in New Zealand. Party Politics21(6): 982–992.
60.
RikerWH (1996) The Strategy of Rhetoric: Campaigning for the American Constitution. New Haven, CT: Yale University Press.
61.
RoeseNJSandeGN (1993) Backlash effects in attack politics. Journal of Applied Social Psychology23(8): 632–653.
62.
RoyJAlcantaraC (2016) Fighting fire with fire: The implications of (not) going negative in a multiparty election campaign. Canadian Journal of Political Science49(3): 473–497.
63.
SandersDNorrisP (2005) The impact of political advertising in the 2001 UK general election. Political Research Quarterly58: 535–536.
64.
SchultzCSPancerM (1997) Character attacks and their effects on perceptions of male and female political candidates. Political Psychology18: 93–102.
65.
ShenFWuD (2002) Effects of soft-money issue advertisements on candidate evaluation and voting preference: An exploration. Mass Communication & Society5(4): 395–410.
66.
SidesJLipsitzKGrossmannM (2010) Do Voters perceive Negative Campaigns as Informative Campaigns?American Politics Research38(3): 502–530.
67.
SigelmanLKuglerM (2003) Why is research on the effects of negative campaigning so inconclusive? Understanding citizens’ perceptions of negativity. The Journal of Politics65(1): 142–160.
68.
SjöblomG (1968) Party Strategies in a Multiparty System. Lund: Studentliteratur.
69.
StevensD (2012) Tone Versus Information: Explaining the Impact of Negative Political Advertising. Journal of Political Marketing11(4): 322–352.
70.
StrømKMüllerW (1999) Political parties and hard choices. In: MüllerWStrømK (eds) Policy Office or Votes How Political Parties in Western Europe Make Hard Decisions. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, pp.1–35.
71.
ThorsonEChristWGCaywoodC (1991) Selling candidates like tubes of toothpaste: Is the comparison apt? In: BioccaF (ed.) Television and Political Advertising, vol. 1. Hillsdale, NJ: Hillsdale Lawrence Erlbaum, pp.145–172.
72.
van der BrugWvan der EijkCFranklinM (2007) The economy and the vote – Economic conditions and elections in fifteen countries. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.
73.
van der EijkCvan der BrugWvan der KrohM, et al. (2006) Rethinking the dependent variable in voting behaviour: On the measurement and analysis of electoral utilities. Electoral Studies25(3): 424–447.
WadsworthAJPattersonPKaidLL, et al. (1987) ’Masculine’ vs ‘Feminine’ strategies in political ads: Implications for female candidates. Journal of Applied Communication15: 77–94.
76.
van der BrugWvan der EijkCFranklinM (2007) The economy and the vote – Economic conditions and elections in fifteen countries. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.
77.
WalterASNaiA (2015) Explaining the use of attack behaviour in the electoral battlefield: A literature overview. In: NaiAWalterAS (eds) New Perspectives on Negative Campaigning Why Attack Politics Matters. Wattenberg: ECPR Press, pp.97–114.
78.
WattenbergMPBriansCL (1999) Negative campaign advertising: Demobilizer or mobilizer?American Political Science Review93: 891–899.
Supplementary Material
Please find the following supplemental material available below.
For Open Access articles published under a Creative Commons License, all supplemental material carries the same license as the article it is associated with.
For non-Open Access articles published, all supplemental material carries a non-exclusive license, and permission requests for re-use of supplemental material or any part of supplemental material shall be sent directly to the copyright owner as specified in the copyright notice associated with the article.
