Facts versus feelings: Objective and subjective experiences of diversity differentially impact attitudes towards the European Union

Abstract

This research used secondary data sources to examine how objective and subjective experiences of diversity and immigration are associated with voting and attitudes toward the European Union. Using objective measures of diversity and migration, England’s electorate regions with the most diversity and highest levels of projected migration had the lowest proportion of “Leave” voters in the 2016 Brexit vote (Study 1). Using subjective assessments of intergroup contact and immigration attitudes (Study 2), higher perceived immigrant population size was associated with greater perceived competition with immigrants and Euroscepticism, whereas intergroup contact had the opposite effect. Surprisingly, the explicit desire to reduce immigration was not associated with anti-EU attitudes. This research highlights the importance of combining objective and subjective measures of diversity and immigration in analyzing political motivations, as objective measures suggested immigration did not adversely affect Brexit votes (Study 1), whereas some subjective perceptions of immigration led to greater anti-EU attitudes.