Abstract
As with many other developed countries, Czechia has witnessed significant changes and increasing differentiation in terms of the life paths of younger generations. Despite recent higher fertility levels, new data indicate a decline in fertility and increased uncertainty concerning future trends. This study examines the factors that contribute to variations in reproductive intentions between different demographic groups in Czech society by analysing the gap between the desired and intended family size. Using data from the Generation and Gender Survey (GGS-II, Wave I) for women aged 18–39, logistic regression was employed to analyse the gap between the desired and intended family size. Findings show that 18% of women report higher fertility desires than intentions, with the gap most evident among older women, those with fewer children, and those experiencing financial insecurity. Moreover, the perceived impact of COVID-19 on family relationships exacerbates this gap, while religious participation appears to mitigate it, with lower discrepancy rates among women who attend religious services. These findings emphasize the importance of economic and social stability in aligning fertility desires and intentions and provide insights for policymakers seeking to address fertility decline. Strengthening family support and reducing economic insecurity, particularly in times of uncertainty, may better enable women to achieve their reproductive goals.
Keywords
Introduction
Modern developed societies are undergoing the profound transformation of family formation, with a shift towards highly individualized choices (Beck and Williams, 2004). Moreover, such societies are seeing the reconfiguration of relationships both between genders and across generations (Irwin, 2000). This structural context is further shaped by major societal trends, including the shift of marriage and parenthood from a ‘cornerstone’ to a ‘capstone’ of adulthood (Cherlin, 2020), the necessity for the dual-earner model for establishing a family (Irwin, 2000) and the emergence of intensified parenting requirements that dampen reproductive aspirations among the childless (Mynarska and Rytel, 2020; Neyer et al., 2024).
At the macro level, these forces are resulting in the widespread postponement of childbearing (Sobotka, 2017) and persistently low fertility rates. At the micro level, the consequence is a significant deficit where individuals often have fewer children than originally planned (Bongaarts, 2001). Crucially, it is also leading to the formation of a desired-intended fertility gap: the discrepancy between the number of children people want and the number they realistically intend to have. According to Sen’s capabilities and agency framework (Sen, 1992), this discrepancy can be understood as a failure of capabilities. While individuals possess autonomous reproductive desires (agency), their ability to translate these into intentions is constrained by structural and contextual barriers. This is in line with Miller’s conceptualization of fertility as a sequential process (desire–intention–behaviour). Building upon this background, Miller (2011) suggests that declining fertility may stem from a prior reduction in intentions themselves, despite stable desires. While the realization of fertility intentions has been the subject of extensive research (e.g. Beaujouan et al., 2019; Buber-Ennser and Berghammer, 2021; Riederer et al., 2019), a significant literature gap remains concerning the desired-intended gap itself.
The post-communist countries of Central and Eastern Europe, including Czechia, offer a unique case study for examining the gap between desired and intended fertility. Following a rapid transition to market economies in the 1990s, these nations experienced increased economic volatility, profound societal change and growing individualization. While Czechia maintained higher fertility than some of its Western peers up to 2021 (Human Fertility Database, 2024), recent data signal a renewed decline and a general increase in uncertainty, a trend shared with other countries in the region. The total fertility rate (TFR) remains deeply below the replacement level of 2.1 children per woman (Human Fertility Database, 2024), despite the prevailing ideal of a two-child family (Sobotka and Beaujouan, 2014; Šťastná, 2007) and the positive perception of parenthood (Maříková, 2023). This suggests that Czech men and women have consistently struggled to fulfil their reproductive desires and intentions due to the dynamic shift in fertility to higher ages (Kocourková and Šťastná, 2021; Slabá et al., 2021; Šťastná et al., 2017). In recent years, this challenge has been further compounded by significant uncertainty factors, including macroeconomic challenges such as inflation, the energy crisis, the COVID-19 pandemic and the massive influx of refugees resulting from the war in Ukraine. These factors impacted populations across Europe, but Czechia was one of the most significantly affected countries, which fundamentally contributed to perceived social uncertainties, particularly in the realm of reproductive planning.
This article focuses on the discrepancy between desired and intended fertility in the context of the recent sharp decline in fertility rates observed in most developed countries. In an effort to form an understanding of this rapid decline, demographic studies have increasingly turned their attention to perceptions of the future or ‘perceived uncertainty’ (Vignoli et al., 2020) since standard demographic variables and structural factors no longer seem sufficient. Moreover, the COVID-19 pandemic and the associated restrictive measures acted to significantly alter reproductive behaviour and intentions (Paloncyová, 2022).
The study aims to contribute to improving the understanding of how today’s young adults approach reproductive planning by examining the desired-intended gap in the context of perceived economic uncertainty and uncertainty surrounding family relationships, both of which were exacerbated by the COVID-19 pandemic. The study connects these two dimensions by analysing the extent to which external disruptions and changing social conditions influence fertility-related decisions, and demonstrate the role of uncertainties in terms of preventing the translation of desires into intentions. Crucially, we employ a unique, nationally specific question from the Czech Generations and Gender Survey (GGS, 2020–2022) regarding the perceived impact of COVID-19. This question was posed at a pivotal moment, that is, during the pandemic and at the onset of a dramatic fertility decline in Czechia from one of the highest levels in Europe of 1.83 in 2021 to just 1.37 in 2024 (Czech Statistical Office (CZSO), 2025a).
Theoretical background
The measurement of reproductive planning remains the subject of intense discussion in the field of demographic research. Nevertheless, fertility intentions are widely considered to be a key component in fertility decline theories (Goldstein et al., 2003; van de Kaa, 2010) and serve both as a firmly established concept in demographic research and a strong predictor of future fertility (Beaujouan and Berghammer, 2019; Guzzo and Hayford, 2023; Kuhnt and Trappe, 2016).
Bongaarts (2001) introduced the concept of the discrepancy between intended and realized fertility. One of the important factors in terms of explaining this discrepancy concerns the trend towards the shifting of fertility to older ages (Bongaarts, 2001), be it planned or unplanned. Unplanned fertility postponement to older ages occurs relatively often in cases where people realize their reproductive intentions later than intended (Slabá, 2020; Slabá et al., 2021). Furthermore, the postponement of parenthood to older ages is strongly associated with more advantaged occupations, particularly among women, but not among men (Ralston et al., 2016).
However, according to Miller (2011), a further fertility gap exists, namely the discrepancy between desired and intended fertility, a topic that has attracted considerably less research attention. This gap emerges when individuals do not achieve the number of children they originally desired to have (Guzzo and Hayford, 2023). Considering this specific discrepancy allows researchers to study the non-fulfilment of both reproductive desires and intentions, which are strongly influenced by the contextual conditions individuals face (Miller, 2011).
As Miller (2011) argues, reproductive desires may be influenced by genetic factors and cultural norms, while reproductive intentions are more shaped by current life conditions and social expectations. Fertility desires are based on feelings and are often somewhat vague, while fertility intentions are more specific and involve a decision on, and commitment to, the aim of having a child. Fertility intentions exert a direct influence on behaviour and represent the closest component of the motivational stream that leads to that behaviour (Miller, 2011). While desires and intentions may be influenced by varying life stages, fertility desires are considered to be more stable over the life cycle than fertility intentions (Miller, 2011).
Miller (2011) proposed the Traits-Desires-Intentions-Behaviour concept (TDIB), which suggests a three-stage motivational sequence that leads to fertility, the first stage of which refers to fertility traits that lead to the desire to have a child, which may or may not develop into reproductive intentions. The relationship between fertility desires and fertility intentions (and the potential gap between them) is, therefore, fundamental in terms of the resulting reproductive behaviour.
This study employs data obtained from the international GGS. The GGS questionnaire is grounded in established theoretical reproductive planning frameworks (Vikat et al., 2007) and was developed in direct alignment with the Theory of Planned Behaviour (Ajzen, 1991). The methodological design also fits precisely within the Traits-Desires-Intentions-Behaviour model (Miller, 2011; Miller and Pasta, 1995), which affirms the central role of child-number intentions when explaining reproductive behaviour. Fertility desires and intentions are measured via the self-declaration approach in the GGS questionnaire. The precise operationalization and distinction between these two key concepts are explained in the Data & Method section.
While numerous studies have been dedicated to factors that influence the successful realization of reproductive intentions (e.g. Beaujouan et al., 2019; Buber-Ennser and Berghammer, 2021; Riederer et al., 2019), the literature provides only limited information on the factors that affect the desired-intended gap. However, we posit that the same structural constraints that impede the realization of plans also operate earlier in the motivational stream, which act to prevent individuals from translating their stable desires into firm intentions. We therefore provide a summary of selected factors that are known to influence the successful realization of reproductive intentions.
The degree of certainty of stated intentions plays a role in terms of the success of their realization. A study conducted in Austria by Beaujouan et al. (2019) found that approximately two-thirds of both men and women who definitely intended to have a child successfully achieved their short-term reproductive objectives within 4 years.
The division of household labour is a significant factor that must be considered when formulating and realizing reproductive intentions. The gender egalitarian perspective posits that an egalitarian approach strengthens childbearing intentions and fosters their realization. This assertion is supported by the findings of a study conducted by Riederer et al. (2019) in four European countries. Moreover, the significance of intimate relationships between couples with concern to the formulation of reproductive intentions and preferences is underscored by Erfani and Jahanbakhsh (2022).
As individuals age, the risk increases of not achieving one’s reproductive objectives, which potentially results in discrepancies between intended and actual family size (Beaujouan, 2021; Beaujouan et al., 2019, Harknett and Hartnett, 2014). Women over the age of 35 experience a significant decline in their ability to realize their reproductive intentions (Beaujouan et al., 2019). For instance, older childless women in Czechia persist in their reproductive intentions despite the health risks associated with late reproduction. According to Slabá et al. (2023), 20% of childless women aged 40–44 intend to have a child within 3 years and even beyond this timeframe. However, this does not correspond with the actual reproductive behaviour of Czech women; women over the age of 40 years, in fact, participate to a minimal extent in total fertility in Czechia (around 4% of the TFR in 2022 (Czech Statistical Office (CZSO), 2023a).
The successful realization of short-term reproductive intentions is country-specific. A study by Kocourková and Šťastná (2021) shows that countries with a completed shift of fertility to older ages exhibit a higher rate of the realization of reproductive intentions than transitional countries (e.g. France versus Czechia in the first decade of the 21st century).
Individuals who are employed and have higher incomes have a greater chance of realizing their short-term reproductive intentions than those with lower incomes or who are unemployed (Dommermuth et al., 2015). At the macro level, high fertility levels have been observed over the long term in countries with traditionally high female labour force participation and gender equality policies that promote the reconciliation of family and work life, such as Norway (Lappegård et al., 2022). However, total fertility rates are declining even in those countries that offer favourable conditions for young people in terms of equal opportunities and housing availability. Recent research by European demographers, for example, Lappegård et al. (2022), revealed that factors such as unemployment, education, and housing arrangements are no longer sufficient in terms of understanding the fertility decision-making process. These factors certainly do not explain the observed fertility decline in the highly developed Nordic nations. Therefore, it is necessary to take into account additional factors beyond those considered to date.
New challenges in the study of reproductive planning
Decisions on when and how many children to have are shaped not only by life situations and past experiences but increasingly by perceptions of the future. Vignoli et al. (2020) speak of ‘perceived uncertainty’, which represents individual perceptions of the future and fundamentally influences decisions concerning the future. Moreover, experiences of the COVID-19 pandemic and the associated restrictive measures that affected almost every area of human life acted to significantly alter reproductive behaviour and intentions (Paloncyová, 2022). Climate change is a further new factor in terms of contributing to uncertainty about the future; several studies have shown that young people are increasingly considering their reproductive intentions in the context of this factor (Schneider-Mayerson, 2022).
The study of the desired-intended fertility gap is particularly relevant given Czechia’s recent fertility trends. We relied on Miller’s Traits–Desires–Intentions–Behaviour model (Miller, 2011) to provide a robust theoretical foundation for this phenomenon. The model emphasizes the critical transition between idealized desires and realistic intentions. In this context, perceived uncertainty acts as an external filter that represents the structural and contextual barriers that act to constrain the ability of individuals to translate autonomous desires into realistic intentions. Examining these mechanisms is crucial, particularly since Czechia has experienced a unique fertility development trajectory in recent years that diverged from the broader European context.
While most western, northern, central, and eastern European countries witnessed a decline in total fertility over the period 2011–2021, Czechia experienced an increase in fertility over the same period (Figure 1). This development coincided with a favourable population climate in Czechia. The peak in total fertility in 2021 (TFR value of 1.83) was followed by a significant decline in fertility levels (TFR value of 1.46 in 2023; Figure 1). In 2024, the total fertility rate further declined to 1.37 (CZSO, 2025a), and projections indicate a further decline in 2025 (Czech Statistical Office (CZSO), 2025b). Concurrently, there has been a gradual shift towards postponing parenthood to older ages, as evidenced by the increasing average age of first-birth mothers in Czechia, which reached 28.9 years in 2023. However, despite the notable trend towards reproductive ageing, the average age of first-birth mothers in Czechia remains below the EU average (Eurostat, 2025).
Total fertility rates in European countries, 2011–2023.
Czechia was seriously negatively affected by the COVID-19 pandemic. High COVID-related mortality rates (Hulíková Tesárková and Dzúrová, 2023) were accompanied by the implementation of a series of strict measures aimed at combating the spread of the virus (e.g. the closure of schools, restrictions on movement, and shop closures (Slabá, 2022)), which fuelled uncertainty regarding the future in terms of work, family, and society as a whole (PAQ Research, 2022).
As the global pandemic receded, Czechia was confronted with a further challenge in the form of the war in Ukraine. In addition to the related economic uncertainty, Czechia was also forced to confront a real security threat. From February 24, 2022 to April 1, 2023, Czechia issued 504,000 temporary protection permits to Ukrainian citizens, i.e. the highest per capita average in the European Union (Ministry of the Interior of the Czech Republic, 2024). To put this in context, Czechia had a population of 10.5 million in 2021 (Czech Statistical Office (CZSO), 2024a). Czechia was confronted with a significant influx of refugees and the challenge of their integration into society, accompanied by a new factor: high inflation rates.
Inflation in Czechia was significantly affected by the energy crisis, which intensified following the outbreak of Russian aggression in Ukraine. Prior to the crisis, however, almost one in ten Czechs was already grappling with energy poverty. Between June 2021 and 2023, the average Czech household faced an average increase in energy prices of 61.5% (Ministry of the Environment of the Czech Republic, 2023). In 2022, according to the data provided by the Czech Statistical Office (CZSO, 2024b), the average year-on-year inflation rate was 15.1% (compared to 3.8% in 2021)
Most of the GGS survey data were collected in spring 2022 (Kreidl et al., 2023a), which allowed for the monitoring of the reproductive intentions of Czech women in the context of considerable uncertainty about the future as a consequence of the non-standard societal situation and the various threats that influenced it. In addition, the Czech GGS survey included nationally specific questions on the uncertainty caused by societal changes that occurred during and immediately after the COVID-19 pandemic (Kreidl et al., 2023a), which allowed for a more profound comprehension of the perceived impact of the pandemic with concern to Czech women of reproductive age.
Data and methods
The main source of data for the analysis was taken from the Generations & Gender Programme, specifically data from the first wave of the Generations & Gender Survey–Round II for Czechia. The data were collected in 2020–2022 using a standardized self-reported data questionnaire (Kreidl et al., 2023a).
The dataset included information on Czech men and women aged 18–69 (N = 5583 respondents); only women of reproductive age were selected (N = 2184 women aged 18–49) for the analysis of reproductive desires and intentions. The data were weighted for descriptive statistics so as to ensure representativeness with respect to the Czech population.
A sample of women aged 18–39 who expressed equal or higher reproductive desires than intentions (N = 936) was selected for the in-depth analysis employing logistic regression. The sample was selected so as to comprise women under 39 for whom reproduction may not yet be completed in view of the fact that we aimed to examine the factors that influence current reproductive intentions. Since women over 40 account for just 4% of the total fertility rate (TFR) in Czechia (CZSO, 2023a), it was decided that their inclusion in the analysis would not reflect the factors under analysis due to their typically having formulated their reproductive intentions under different circumstances.
The GGS posed three questions of interest for our research concerning the opinions of respondents on the ideal number of children in general, their personal ideal number of children (desired number) and their fertility intentions.
Social norms concerning reproduction (the ideal number of children) were less important for the purposes of this study than subjective attitudes towards reproduction. Therefore, only the concepts of reproductive desires and intentions were considered. The concept of reproductive intentions was approached in GGS questionnaire by posing the following questions: ‘How many biological children have you had in total, including those who do not live with you or have passed away?’ and ‘How many more children–including biological and adoptive children–do you intend to have overall?’ The intended number of children was defined as the sum of the current number of biological children and the intended number of children in the future. The desired number of children was represented by the GGS question: ‘What is the ideal number of children you personally would like to have?’
Methods
The structure of women who have or do not have a discrepancy between the desired and intended number of children was described employing a representative dataset of Czech women of reproductive age (18–49). It is important to note that the analysis did not include male respondents due to the restriction of the GGS dataset to information on the reproductive desires and intentions of men with a female partner. The primary objective of the study was to examine the reproductive planning of the entire population of reproductive age rather than focusing on specific groups based on their partner situation. Consequently, the analysis was limited to women so as to ensure the representativeness of the sample.
Furthermore, the methodology included the logistic regression analysis of a sample of women aged 18–39 who expressed equal or higher reproductive desires than intentions (N = 936) aimed at forming an understanding of the factors that influence the discrepancy between the desired and intended family size. Women who were unsure about their reproductive desires or intentions were excluded from the analysis. Furthermore, the analysis excluded women over 40 years of age, who no longer contribute significantly to the total fertility rate in Czechia; only 5% of women in their forties are currently trying to conceive a child or planning to do so in the future (Kreidl et al., 2023b).
The decision-making process regarding the number and timing of children is influenced not only by immediate circumstances and past experiences but also by perceptions of the future. Vignoli et al. (2020) discuss the concept of ‘perceived uncertainty’, which refers to individual perceptions of and exerts a significant impact on decisions concerning the future. Therefore, in addition to traditional socio-demographic variables, variables that represent perceived insecurity, such as those related to family and the labour market, or general uncertainty about the future of society following the COVID-19 pandemic, were included in the analysis.
The dependent variable in the logistic regression model was dichotomized into two categories: ‘with discrepancy’ (desires > intentions) and ‘without discrepancy’ (desires = intentions). Only those variables with a statistically significant difference in the proportion of women with discrepancies (higher reproductive desires than intentions) were included in the logistic regression model. The proportion of women with discrepancies did not differ according to partnership status (categories: single, in a partnership – living apart, in a partnership – living together, married), level of education (primary + lower secondary, secondary, tertiary), the value of children in the women’s lives (the woman needs a child for life fulfilment reasons) and church affiliation. Consequently, these variables were not included in the logistic regression model.
The odds of experiencing a discrepancy between the desired and intended number of children were monitored according to the age of the women (distributed in 5-year categories: under 25, 25–29 (reference category), 30–34, 35–39) and the number of children the women currently had (0 (reference category), 1, 2, 3 or more children). Religious belief was considered via a question on attendance at religious services: yes (at least once a year) or no (reference category). The impact of the respondents’ financial situation was addressed via a question on the extent to which the household of the respondent is able to make ends meet: with difficulty, with some difficulty, fairly easily, and easily (reference category).
This variable was found to be a better indicator concerning the family financial situation than absolute income since, although incomes have risen in Czechia in recent years due to high inflation rates, the real wages of Czechs and their purchasing power have fallen (Czech Statistical Office (CZSO), 2023b).
The impact of the COVID-19 pandemic was addressed via a variable that enquired about the level of agreement with the statement ‘COVID-19 had an impact on family relationships’. The response options were ‘Disagree’ (reference category), ‘Neither agree nor disagree’, and ‘Agree’.
Furthermore, additional variables were incorporated into the analysis; however, they did not result in any significant improvement to the model. The additional variables included expectations concerning the future financial situation of the household (better, neither better nor worse, worse) and economic activity (in education or training, employed, self-employed, unemployed, maternity/parental leave, other).
The logistic regression was conducted using the forward method, which was deemed appropriate for this analysis. The assumptions for logistic regression were met, and no multicollinearity problem was identified. The quality of the model was evaluated using the Hosmer–Lemeshow test and the Nagelkerke coefficient.
The probability of a discrepancy between reproductive desires and intentions for the specific demographic groups of women was calculated based on the regression coefficients (β) as reported in (Řeháková, 2000):
Results
The majority of Czech women aged 18–49 (55%) wish to have two children (see Figure 2). A small percentage of women (4%) choose to remain childless, and 9% wish to have a one-child family. 26% of women aspire to have three or more children. The data recorded 2% of women choosing not to report their reproductive desires. Only 5% of women expressed uncertainty about their reproduction desires.
Desired and intended number of children by the woman’s age, Czechia (weighted).
However, some women may desire a higher number of children than they intend to have due to the presence of various obstacles. According to the survey results, 46% of the women expressed their intention to have two children, while 20% of the respondents expressed their intention to have three or more children (Figure 2). A total of 16% of the women expressed the intention of having only one child, while 7% indicated that they had no intention of having children. In other words, although only 13% of the women expressed a desire to have one or no children, 23% indicated the intention to have one or no children.
Reproductive desires and intentions tend to vary depending on the woman’s age (see Figure 2). On average, younger women aged 18–29 tend to have a lower desired number of children and are more likely to prefer to have only one child (13%) or to remain childless (6%) than older women. The majority of the women in their thirties (30–39 years) expressed a desire to have two children (57%). Moreover, the desired family size tends to increase with age. It is worth noting that a significant difference was observed in terms of the percentage of women who desired to have three or more children across the various age groups. Specifically, almost one-third (30%) of women aged 40–49 years expressed this desire compared to 22% of women below the age of 30, and 24% of women in their thirties.
Although only 5% of women reported being unsure about their reproductive desires, 9% of women reported not knowing how many children they intended to have (Figure 2). Women under the age of 30 were found to be most unsure about their reproductive intentions (16%). The proportion of women with unsure intentions decreased with age, and only 5% of women over the age of 40 did not know how many children they intended to have. Uncertainty about reproductive intentions also varied according to the number of children women already have. A significant proportion of women without children reported having uncertain reproductive intentions (13%), which was significantly higher than for women with children (i.e. only 6% of women with 2 children).
A difference was apparent between the desired and intended number of children across all the age groups, including for younger women who are likely to participate in reproduction and women aged 40 or older who have most likely completed most of their reproduction. Although 30% of women in their forties reported the desire to have three or more children, only 21% of women aged 40 + intended to do so (Figure 2). As a result, only 8% of women aged 40–49 wish to have no or only one child, 7% intend to remain childless and 19% intend to have one child. Therefore, the women in their forties group contained the highest proportion of those that experience a discrepancy between their desired and intended number of children; moreover, this group has the lowest probability of fulfilling either their intentions or desires.
Only 62% of Czech women of reproductive age intend to have the number of children that they express the desire to have (Table 1). While some women intend to have more children than they desire (4%), the highest discrepancy rate is related to women who have higher reproductive desires than intentions (18% of women aged 18–49). The remaining 16% of women are unsure of either their reproductive desires or intentions.
Discrepancy between desired and intended number of children, women aged 18–49 years, Czechia (weighted).
Source: Kreidl et al., 2023b (GGS).
A subset of women aged 18–39 only was selected for the more detailed analysis of women who have higher reproductive desires than intentions and women who have equal reproductive desires and intentions, and to form an understanding of the factors that are associated with the occurrence of discrepancies. Table 2 shows the discrepancy between the desired and intended number of children based on the socio-demographic structure of women aged 18–39 years. The 35–39 years with only one child contained a statistically significantly higher proportion of women with the risk of experiencing unfulfilled reproductive desires (their reproductive desires exceed their intentions).
Discrepancy between the desired and intended number of children according to the socio-demographic structure of women aged 18–39 years, Czechia (weighted).
Source: Kreidl et al., 2023b
The occurrence of discrepancies differed significantly within the given category, as indicated by the chi-square test (p < 0.05). The proportion of women who desire to have more children than they intend to have did not vary according to their partnership status, level of education, the value they place on children in their lives, or their religious beliefs.
The discrepancy between the desired and intended number of children differed according to perceived uncertainty about the future. Those women who expected a worse financial situation in the future and those who believed that the COVID-19 crisis exerted an impact on family relationships evinced a stronger tendency towards discrepancies between their reproductive desires and intentions. The degree of discrepancy also varied depending on the woman’s financial situation, particularly for those who struggle to make ends meet. It is important to note that those who reported having ‘difficulties’ faced the highest risk of unfulfilled reproductive desires. Women who reported attending a religious service at least once per year experienced lower discrepancy levels.
The proportion of women who desire more children than they intend to have did not vary according to the partnership status (categories: single, in a partnership – living apart, in a partnership – living together, married), level of education (primary + lower secondary, upper secondary, tertiary), the value they place on children in their lives or their religious beliefs.
The risk of experiencing a gap between reproductive desires and intentions
As women age, the risk increases of a discrepancy between their stated desires and their actual intentions. Women in their late 30s (aged 35–39) have a 3 times higher risk of experiencing this discrepancy than do women aged 25–29 (Table 3).
Model 1 – Odds ratio Exp(β) of having a gap between reproductive desires and intentions, women aged 18–39 years, Czechia (unweighted).
Source: Kreidl et al., 2023b
The contribution to the model of the specific categories of the explanatory variables is indicated by p-values of p < 0.05.
Conversely, women who already have children exhibit a lower risk of unfulfilled reproductive desires. Women with two children have a 2.9 times lower risk, and those with three or more children have a 9 times lower risk of experiencing a discrepancy between their reproductive desires and intentions than do women with no children. No significant difference was detected between women without children and those with one child.
The COVID-19 pandemic created uncertainty about the future, which is reflected in the risk of unfulfilled reproductive desires. Women who believe that the pandemic will affect family relationships are 2 times more likely to experience a discrepancy between their reproductive desires and intentions than those who do not anticipate any impact on family ties.
The financial situation of the respondents’ households appears to be a crucial factor in terms of experiencing a discrepancy between reproductive desires and intentions. Women who struggle to make ends meet were observed to have a 3 times higher risk of such a discrepancy than women who reported being easily able to make ends meet.
Religious affiliation also influences the odds of having unfulfilled fertility desires. Women who attend religious services at least once per year have a 1.7 times lower risk of experiencing a discrepancy between their desired and intended number of children.
The logistic regression model further controlled for the economic activity and future financial situation variables. Although a discrepancy was observed between the women’s desired and intended number of children according to economic activity and attitudes towards their financial situation in the future, the discrepancy was lower for employed women than for those who predicted a worse economic situation for their household in the future (see Table 2). However, compared to the other personal characteristics and beliefs that were considered in the model, these two variables did not significantly influence the model or increase the Nagelkerke coefficient value; thus, they were excluded from the final model.
In order to illustrate the gap between reproductive desires and intentions in terms of differences between the various groups, especially in terms of perceived uncertainties, the probabilities were calculated of experiencing a gap as estimated from the regression coefficients. It was established that the perceived impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on family relationships and financial stability exerted a significant impact on the probability of a gap between the desired and intended numbers of children (see Figure 3 and Figure 4 in the Appendix).
Probabilities of having a gap between reproductive desires and intentions, childless women aged 18–39 by age and perceived uncertainty.
The probability of experiencing a gap was found to be significantly lower for women who do not perceive any uncertainty (i.e. those who can easily make ends meet and do not expect pandemic-related impacts on family relationships) than for women who perceive uncertainty (i.e. those who can make ends meet with difficulty and expect pandemic-related impacts on family relationships) (Figure 4 in the Appendix). Moreover, the probability of having a gap differs depending on the number of children a woman has. The most at-risk group comprises women without children or with one child for whom the probability of experiencing a gap increases with age, regardless of whether they perceive uncertainty or not.
Aimed at identifying the influence of these specific risk factors, that is, financial (in)security and the perceived impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on family relationships, on the discrepancy between reproductive desires and intentions, the probabilities of experiencing a gap were calculated for childless women who were in the reproductive decision-making process and who were more likely to experience a gap than women with children (see Figure 3).
As previously stated, the highest probability of a discrepancy between reproductive desires and intentions was observed for women who have financial difficulties and expect COVID-19-related impacts on family relationships, for whom the probability of a discrepancy increases significantly after reaching the age of 30; the probability of a discrepancy is as high as 65% for such women aged 35 to 39 years (Figure 3).
Regarding the probability of a gap between reproductive desires and intentions, childless women are more likely to be influenced by their financial situation than by the perceived impact of the COVID-19 pandemic. However, both factors individually, and especially their combination, act to increase the overall probability, which, moreover, increases with the age of the woman (Figure 3). Women aged 35 to 39 years who experience financial difficulties but do not anticipate pandemic-related impacts on family relationships exhibited a 49% probability of experiencing a gap, whereas women who are financially secure but are concerned about the potential pandemic-related impact were found to have a 38% probability of experiencing a gap between reproductive desires and intentions. The probability of such a gap is significantly lower for women who perceive neither income uncertainty nor COVID-19 pandemic consequences. However, age remains a significant factor, that is, the probability of having a gap increases with age. Although women under the age of 25 who perceive security have a mere 10% probability of having a discrepancy, the probability increases to 24% for women aged 35 and older (Figure 3).
Discussion
The results of the analysis indicated that nearly one in five women of reproductive age reported a desired-intended fertility gap (i.e. they realistically intended to have fewer children than they desired). This prevalence was strongly associated with perceived uncertainties, which provides robust empirical support for Miller’s traits–desires–intentions–behaviour model and confirmed the existence of a critical bottleneck in the sequence between stable reproductive desires and realistic intentions. Our results suggest that perceived uncertainties (Vignoli et al., 2020) function as contextual barriers that contribute to the widening of this gap by filtering desires, thus leading to a reduction in fertility intentions. This demonstrates that the influence of uncertainty on reproductive outcomes is exerted not merely at the level of fertility intention realization (intentions–behaviour gap), but that uncertainty substantially contributes to the reduction of intentions themselves (desires-intentions gap).
Specifically, those women who reported difficulties in terms of meeting their household financial needs evinced a higher risk of a discrepancy between their desired and intended number of children. This supports the notion that lower household incomes act to potentially prevent individuals from achieving their reproductive desires (Nishimura, 2012) and intentions (Kyzlinková and Šťastná, 2018).
The perceived potential for future uncertainty comprises a further risk of experiencing a gap between reproductive desires and intentions. The COVID-19 pandemic, which led to the most severe societal crisis and economic challenges in recent decades, created a unique context for this study by significantly increasing the perceived degree of uncertainty. Women who believed that the ongoing impact of the COVID-19 pandemic would significantly alter family relationships evinced an elevated risk of a discrepancy between their desired and intended number of children. These findings are in line with the results of a study by Sienicka et al. (2022), which demonstrated that concerns related to the ongoing impact of the COVID-19 pandemic exerted a significant impact on the reproductive intentions of Polish men and women.
With regard to demographic factors, a significantly higher risk of unachieved desired fertility was observed for women over the age of 30 compared to those aged 25–29 years. This finding is in line with studies conducted in other contexts, e.g. a study by García-Gómez et al. (2022) in Spain, which similarly noted the higher frequency of a gap between desired and intended numbers of children for older women (especially those aged 40+). Concerning parity, the odds of experiencing such a gap did not differ significantly between childless women and those with one child. However, women who already had two or more children were found to exhibit a significantly lower risk of unfulfilled reproductive desires. This can be attributed to the persistent social norm of the two-child family in Czechia (Kocourková et al., 2023), which suggests that most women with two children have fulfilled their reproductive desires. Nevertheless, our findings highlight the fact that women who are childless or have only one child remain at risk of not fulfilling their reproductive desire assuming that their desires are in line with this societal norm (Kocourková and Šťastná, 2021).
Furthermore, the model demonstrated that individuals who attend religious services have a reduced risk of a discrepancy between their desired and intended number of children. This may be linked to the more pro-family values often associated with religious people (Bein et al., 2021; Buber-Ennser and Berghammer, 2021), who potentially perceive greater benefits from having children and report lower associated costs.
In contrast, the differential risk of having a gap between reproductive desires and intentions when controlling for age, number of children, making ends meet, perceived impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on relationships and religion did not differ significantly according to economic status. This aligns with observations from other studies (e.g. Hosseini et al., 2021).
Similarly, contrary to expectations, educational attainment was not significantly associated with the gap between desired and intended fertility. However, the analysis of the relationship between perceived uncertainties and education revealed an important underlying mechanism. The model that excluded uncertainty factors revealed that the respondents with a lower educational attainment exhibited a two-fold higher odds of experiencing such a gap compared to those with tertiary education (even after controlling for the standard socio-demographic covariates). The complete disappearance of this effect upon the inclusion of perceived uncertainties suggests that educational attainment may function as a proxy variable which captures the differential sensitivity of individuals or their exposure to such uncertainties (the complete results obtained from the model, which is not presented herein, are available upon request from the corresponding author). This finding underscores the complex and evolving relationship between educational attainment and fertility and indicates that simplistic explanations that link fertility decline solely to higher educational attainment are insufficient (Kyzlinková and Šťastná, 2018; Trimarchi and Van Bavel, 2018; Vasireddy et al., 2023).
While this study offers valuable insights, it is important to acknowledge certain limitations. The analysis relies on cross-sectional data, meaning that we capture factors associated with reproductive decisions at a single point in time. This approach does not allow us to observe how individuals’ perceptions and circumstances that influence their reproductive decisions may evolve throughout their life course. This was mitigated by focusing on women up to age 40, who are, in most cases, still actively engaged in their reproductive years. Future research would benefit significantly from longitudinal studies that track individuals over time so as to better understand the dynamic interplay of factors that influence reproductive desires and intentions.
A further important limitation concerns the focus exclusively on women due to the data constraints. While this approach offers critical insight into female reproductive intentions, it overlooks the role of male partners. Reproductive decision-making is often a joint process negotiated within the relationship rather than an individual act, as emphasized by Philipov et al. (2009). The challenge for comparative research, however, is that current international surveys do not collect data on the reproductive intentions or desires of both partners. Future research would therefore significantly benefit from targeted studies that explicitly incorporate the perspectives of both partners so as to better capture couple dynamics.
While this study contributes to the understanding of how perceived uncertainty influences the transition from fertility desires to intentions, we cannot ascertain whether this uncertainty also reshapes the initial formulation of those desires.
Finally, one of the crucial analytical limitations comprises the exclusion of those women who were uncertain with regard to their reproductive intentions or desires. While this exclusion was necessary in order to maintain the integrity of the desired-intended fertility gap, it means we may have underestimated the true extent of reproductive uncertainty in the population. Future research should explicitly investigate the trajectory of this ‘unsure’ group.
Conclusion
This study demonstrated that a significant proportion of women of reproductive age in Czechia (18%) experience a gap between their reproductive desires and intentions, thus placing them at risk of having unfulfilled reproductive desires. Our primary novel finding comprised the systematic link between this risk and the subjective perception of uncertainty. This gap was observed to be significantly higher for those women who perceived financial instability or expressed concerns about the potential impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on family relationships (a factor captured by the respective unique, country-specific GGS-II question). This evidence suggests that perceived uncertainty (Vignoli et al., 2020) functions as a critical barrier that intervenes in the transition from desires to intentions in the TDIB model. The findings contribute to the literature on the desired-intended gap by providing empirical proof that structural barriers influence the formation of intentions, not merely their realization. This mechanism is crucial in terms of forming a nuanced understanding of the current fertility decline in Czechia and, indeed, in many other developed countries. Addressing these root causes of uncertainty through targeted social and economic policies is essential in terms of empowering individuals to achieve their desired family size. Ultimately, providing support for personal aspirations will be vital with concern to fostering societal well-being and shaping future demographic trends.
Footnotes
Appendix 1
Funding
The authors disclosed receipt of the following financial support for the research, authorship, and/or publication of this article: This paper was supported by the Charles University Grant Agency (GAUK) (No.189924), Reproductive Strategies in the Age of Uncertainty: Reproductive Intentions of Czech Women and Men and by the project “On Our Own: Opportunities and Risks in the Individualization of Society (PRINS) CZ.02.01.01/00/23_025/0008710’’ which is co-financed by the European Union. This study utilizes data from the large research infrastructure Czech national cluster for family research GGP-CZ (project no. LM2024074).
Data availability statement
The data used for the purposes of this article were obtained from the international Generations and Gender Survey (GGS). The data are freely available from the Generations and Gender Programme website ( www.ggp-i.org ) following registration.
Ethical approval
Ethical approval was not required since the GGS survey data are publicly available and anonymized; they are collected in accordance with ethical guidelines and approved by the relevant ethics committees.
Informed consent
Informed consent was obtained by the original data collectors; the data were anonymized so as to ensure the privacy and confidentiality of the participants. The data are publicly available.
