(Un)predicted Patterns in the Timing of Urban Shootings Across Six US Cities

Abstract

Aggregate data from both police departments and emergency rooms reveal consistent patterns in the demographic, spatial, and temporal distribution of urban shootings. On average across the United States, young Black men who live in areas of concentrated disadvantage face the highest risks of being shot, especially at night and on weekends. Yet, studies rarely examine whether there is intercity variation in the daily patterning of urban shootings. Drawing on police department data from six US cities (2018–2023), I advance current understandings by demonstrating that while some cities like New York City, Los Angeles, Chicago, and Boston exhibit well-reasoned trends in statistically outsized weekend gun violence, others like Philadelphia and Baltimore have somewhat more steady gun violence across different days of the week. The predicted temporal patterning of gun violence in some cities and unpredicted patterns in others may suggest that the routine activities of citizens vary by city (i.e. related to the distinct weekend nighttime economy durations in different cities), underlying sociological and motivational factors (i.e. poverty rates, crime gun prevalence, and the drug trade) may differentially affect the chronicity of gun violence by city, or both. Such investigations have the potential to advance understandings of routine activity theory. Better comprehension of the ‘when’ of gun violence across different cities also has policy implications related to how organizations apportion violence interrupters, first responders, and emergency room staff. Likewise, this line of empiricism has applicability to the sociology of violence and the sociology of leisure.