Abstract
In order to understand the potential for tourism in Scotland, it is important to look beyond the near future. Four scenarios have been created that paint contrasting pictures of Scottish tourism in 2015. The ‘Dynamic’ scenario creates a £10bn tourism economy with tourism being the number-one industry in Scotland. The ‘Weekend Get away’ sees tourism based upon consumerism and play. The value of tourism in this scenario is £7.6bn. ‘Yesterday’s Destination’ means tourism is based upon the past, and the industry is found to be too complacent. An uncompetitve industry means that growth is only 1 per cent per annum and valued at £5.1bn. Finally, ‘Exclusive Scotland’ means that the Scottish economy has failed as deflation has taken the soul out of the country but favourable exchange rates mean that international high-spending tourists flock to exclusive resorts. Tourism in this scenario is a £2.6bn industry. These four scenarios follow different paths and are driven by different circumstances. But within all of the scenarios, tourism exists. The opportunity for Scotland is to maximise its potential in order that tourism is Scotland’s first and everlasting industry.
The paper begins with a commentary by Peter Lederer.
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