Assessing Olympic legacy claims: Evaluating explanations of causal mechanisms and policy outcomes

Abstract

Olympic impact/legacy analysis as a research area has become a frequently discussed topic in the sociology of sport literature in general and in event management in particular since the 2000s. Although Olympic impact/legacy analysis has increased in volume, many studies still face methodological challenges (e.g. failure to adopt rigorous theoretical frameworks or overlooking additionality). The aim of this article is to unpack the logic of stakeholders in a critical evaluation of two London 2012 legacy programmes, critically reviewing the outcomes sought, and the actions adopted to achieve those outcomes, with reference to the concepts of programme theory, action theory and process tracing. We seek to redress the shortcomings of previous Olympic legacy claims which have failed to link theoretically informed accounts of the nature of Olympic-led/Olympic-inspired outcomes to explanations of the specific causal mechanisms that account for the generation of such outcomes.

Keywords

impact Olympic Games process tracing programme action programme theory sport

Get full access to this article

View all access options for this article.

References

Adamson

Spong

(2014) Sport Makers Evaluation: Final Report. Leicester: CEF Research.

Bailey

Armour

Kirk

, et al. (2009) The educational benefits claimed for physical education and school sport: An academic review. Research Papers in Education 24(1): 1–27.

Bamberg

(2006) Is a residential relocation a good opportunity to change people’s travel behavior? Results from a theory-driven intervention study. Environment and Behavior 38: 820–40.

Bayes

Price

(1763) An essay towards solving a problem in the doctrine of chances. By the Late Rev. Mr. Bayes, F. R. S. communicated by Mr. Price, in a letter to John Canton, A. M. F. R. S. Philosophical Transactions (1683–1775) 53: 370–418.

Beach

(2018) Achieving methodological alignment when combining QCA and process tracing in practice. Sociological Methods & Research 47(1): 64–99.

Beach

Pedersen

(2013) Process-Tracing Methods: Foundations and Guidelines. Ann Arbor, MI: University of Michigan Press.

Beach

Pedersen

(2016) Causal Case Study Methods: Foundations and Guidelines for Comparing, Matching, and Tracing. Ann Arbor, MI: University of Michigan Press.

Bennett

(2014) Appendix: Disciplining our conjectures – Systematizing process tracing with Bayesian analysis. In: Bennett

Checkel

(eds) Process Tracing: From Metaphor to Analytic Tool. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 276–98.

Bennett

Checkel

(2014) Process tracing. In: Bennett

Checkel

(eds) Process Tracing: From Metaphor to Analytic Tool. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 3–38.

10.

Blake

(2005) The Economic Impact of the London 2012 Olympics. Nottingham: Nottingham University.

11.

Busetti

Dente

(2017) Using process tracing to evaluate unique events: The case of EXPO Milano 2015. Evaluation 23(3): 256–73.

12.

Carmichael

Grix

Marqués

(2012) The Olympic legacy and participation in sport: An interim assessment of Sport England’s Active People Survey for sports studies research. International Journal of Sport Policy and Politics 5: 229–44.

13.

Chang

Muñoz

(2006) School personnel educating the whole child: Impact of character education on teachers’ self-assessment and student development. Journal of Personnel Evaluation in Education 19: 35–49.

14.

Chen

H-T

(1990) Theory-Driven Evaluations. Thousand Oaks, CA: SAGE.

15.

Chen

(2013) An evaluation of the sub-regional legacy/ impacts of the London 2012 Olympic Games in a non-hosting sub-region: A case study of Leicestershire. PhD Thesis, Loughborough University, Loughborough.

16.

Chen

(2018) Sport policy evaluation: What do we know and how might we move forward? International Journal of Sport Policy and Politics 10(4), 741–759. DOI:10.1080/19406940.2018.1488759.

17.

Chen

Henry

(2016) Evaluating the London 2012 Games’ impact on sport participation in a non-hosting region: A practical application of realist evaluation. Leisure Studies 35(5): 685–707. DOI:10.1080/02614367.2015.1040827.

18.

Chen

Henry

L-M

(2013) Meta-evaluation, analytic logic models and the assessment of impacts of sport policies. In: Henry

L-M

(eds) Routledge Handbook of Sport Policy. London: Routledge, 33–47.

19.

Coalter

(2007) A Wider Social Role for Sport: Who’s Keeping the Score? London: Routledge.

20.

Coalter

(2013) ‘There is loads of relationships here’: Developing a programme theory for sport-for-change programmes. International Review for the Sociology of Sport 48(5): 594–612.

21.

Conner

Mishra

Lewis

, et al. (1990) Theory-based evaluation of AIDS-related knowledge, attitudes, and behavior changes. New Directions for Program Evaluation 1990: 75–85.

22.

Crompton

(1995) Economic impact analysis of sports facilities and events, eleven sources of Misapplication. Journal of Sport Management 9(1): 14–35.

23.

De Bosscher

Bingham

Shibli

, et al. (2008) The Global Sporting Arms Race: An International Study on Sports Policy Factors Leading to International Sporting Success. Oxford: Meyer & Meyer Sport.

24.

De Bosscher

Shibli

Westerbeek

, et al. (2015) Successful Elite Sport Policies: An International Comparison of the Sports Policy Factors Leading to International Sporting Success (SPLISS 2.0) in 15 Nations. Maidenhead: Meyer & Meyer Sport.

25.

Donaldson

(2007) Program Theory-Driven Evaluation Science. New York: Lawrence Erlbaum.

26.

Dong

Mangan

(2008) Beijing Olympics legacies: Certain intentions and certain and uncertain outcomes. The International Journal of the History of Sport 25: 2019–40.

27.

Eirich

Morrison

Wimbush

(2011) Guide 6: Contribution Analysis (Social Science Methods Series). Edinburgh: Scottish Government.

28.

Evaluation Partnership

(2011) Longitudinal National Evaluation of CompeteFor: Interim Evaluation. Edinburgh: Scottish Enterprise.

29.

Fuller

Junge

DeCelles

, et al. (2010) ‘Football for Health’ – A football-based health-promotion programme for children in South Africa: A parallel cohort study. British Journal of Sports Medicine 44(8): 546–54.

30.

Funnell

Rogers

(2011) Purposeful Program Theory. San Francisco, CA: Jossey-Bass.

31.

George

(1979) Case studies and theory development: The method of structured, focused comparison. In: Lauren

(ed.) Diplomacy: New Approaches in History, Theory, and Policy. New York: Free Press, 43–68.

32.

George

Bennett

(2005) Case Studies and Theory Development in the Social Sciences. Cambridge, MA: MIT Press.

33.

Giesecke

Madden

(2007) The Sydney Olympics, Seven Years on: An Ex-Post Dynamic CGE Assessment. Clayton, VIC, Australia: Centre of Policy Studies and the Impact Project, Monash University.

34.

Habicht

Victora

Vaughan

(1999) Evaluation designs for adequacy, plausibility and probability of public health programme performance and impact. International Journal of Epidemiology 28: 10–8.

35.

Henry

(2016) Evaluating legacy of mega-sporting events: Lessons from the London 2012 meta-evaluation. Journal of Global Sport Management 1: 19–33.

36.

Hughes

(2013) Sport mega-events and a legacy of increased sport participation: An Olympic promise or an Olympic dream? PhD Thesis, Leeds Metropolitan University, Leeds.

37.

Karadakis

Kaplanidou

(2012) Legacy perceptions among host and non-host Olympic Games residents: A longitudinal study of the 2010 Vancouver Olympic Games. European Sport Management Quarterly 12: 243–64.

38.

Kasimati

Dawson

(2009) Assessing the impact of the 2004 Olympic Games on the Greek economy: A small macroeconometric model. Economic Modelling 26: 139–46.

39.

Lubans

Morgan

(2008) Evaluation of an extra-curricular school sport programme promoting lifestyle and lifetime activity for adolescents. Journal of Sports Sciences 26(5): 519–29.

40.

McCartney

Thomas

Thomson

, et al. (2010) The health and socioeconomic impacts of major multi-sport events: Systematic review (1978–2008). British Medical Journal 340: c2369.

41.

McHugh

(2006) A Cost-Benefit Analysis of an Olympic Games. Kingston, ON, Canada: Queen’s University.

42.

Mahoney

(2012) The logic of process tracing tests in the social sciences. Sociological Methods & Research 41: 570–97.

43.

Matheson

(2006) Mega-Events: The effect of the world’s biggest sporting events on local, regional, and national economies. Retrieved from https://crossworks.holycross.edu/econ_working_papers/68

44.

May

(1995) Environmental implications of the 1992 Winter Olympic Games. Tourism Management 16: 269–75.

45.

Nicholls

Ferguson

Grix

, et al. (2013) Sport Makers – Developing Good Practice in Volunteer and Sports Development. Sheffield: Sheffield University.

46.

Pawson

Tilley

(1997) Realistic Evaluation. London: SAGE.

47.

Porter

Fletcher

(2008) The economic impact of the Olympic Games: Ex ante predictions and ex poste reality. Journal of Sport Management 22: 470–86.

48.

Preuss

(2007) The conceptualisation and measurement of mega sport event legacies. Journal of Sport & Tourism 12: 207–28.

49.

Preuss

(2015) A framework for identifying the legacies of a mega sport event. Leisure Studies 34: 643–664.

50.

Preuss

Alfs

(2011) Signaling through the 2008 Beijing Olympics – Using mega sport events to change the perception and image of the host. European Sport Management Quarterly 11: 55–71.

51.

Tomlinson

Young

(2006) National Identity and Global Sports Events: Culture, Politics, and Spectacle in the Olympics and the Football World Cup. Albany, NY: State University of New York Press.

52.

Truno

(1995) Barcelona: City of sport. In: de Moragas

Botella

(eds) The Keys to Success: The Social, Sporting, Economic and Communications Impact of Barcelona’92. Barcelona: Servei de Publicacions de la UAB, 43–56.

53.

Van der Knaap

(2004) Theory-based evaluation and learning: Possibilities and challenges. Evaluation 10(1): 16–34.

54.

Van Evera

(1997) Guide to Methods for Students of Political Science. Ithaca, NY: Cornell University Press.

55.

VanWynsberghe

(2014) The Olympic Games Impact (OGI) study for the 2010 Winter Olympic Games: Strategies for evaluating sport mega-events’ contribution to sustainability. International Journal of Sport Policy and Politics 7: 1–18.

56.

Veal

Toohey

Frawley

(2012) The sport participation legacy of the Sydney 2000 Olympic Games and other international sporting events hosted in Australia. Journal of Policy Research in Tourism, Leisure and Events 4: 155–84.

57.

Waitt

(2003) Social impacts of the Sydney Olympics. Annals of Tourism Research 30: 194–215.

58.

Waldner

(2012) Process tracing and causal mechanisms. In: Kincaid

(ed.) The Oxford Handbook of the Philosophy of Social Science. Oxford: Oxford University Press, 65–84.

59.

Weed

(2012) Researching impact is easy! what the effect? – Isolating the attributable additional effect of the 2012 Games in School Sport Legacy Initiatives. Paper presented at the Researching and Evaluating the Games Conference, London.

60.

Weed

(2014) Is tourism a legitimate legacy from the Olympic and Paralympic Games? An analysis of London 2012 legacy strategy using programme theory. Journal of Sport & Tourism 19(2): 101–26.

61.

Weed

Coren

Fiore

, et al. (2008) A Systematic Review of the Evidence Base for Developing a Physical Activity, Sport and Health Legacy from the London 2012 Olympic and Paralympic Games. Canterbury: Centre for Sport, Physical Education & Activity Research (SPEAR), Canterbury Christ Church University.

62.

Zhou

Yang

, et al. (2010) The impact of transportation control measures on emission reductions during the 2008 Olympic Games in Beijing, China. Atmospheric Environment 44: 285–93.