While there are well-tested methods for evaluating projects, it is much more difficult to evaluate budget support with the same rigour. This article outlines the challenges of evaluating budget support. In addition to applying a rigorous counterfactual for assessing impact, we argue that there are three other challenges, mainly caused by the ambiguities in the theory and practice of budget support. We then present a typology of different approaches for evaluating budget support based on two dichotomies: ‘qualitative versus quantitative’ and ‘country case study versus cross-country research’. Discussing the strengths and weaknesses of each, we show that an eclectic combination of the different methods can successfully solve the challenges.
AcharyaALimaATF deMooreM (2006) Proliferation and fragmentation: transaction costs and the value of aid. Journal of Development Studies42: 1–21.
2.
AlviESenbetaA (2012) Does foreign aid reduce poverty?Journal of International Development24: 955–76.
3.
ArndtCJonesSTarpF (2010) Aid and growth: have we come full circle?Journal of Globalization and Development1(2): 1–26.
4.
AstburyBLeeuwFL (2010) Unpacking black boxes: mechanisms and theory building in evaluation. American Journal of Evaluation31(3): 363–81.
5.
BanerjeeAVDufloE (2011) Poor Economics: A Radical Rethinking of the Way to Fight Global Poverty. New York: Public Affairs.
6.
BarroRJSala-i-MartinX (2004) Economic Growth, 2nd edn.Cambridge, MA: The MIT Press.
7.
BigstenAPlatteauJTengstamS (2011) The Aid Effectiveness Agenda: The Benefits of Going Ahead. Gothenburg: SOGES.
8.
BlatterJHaverlandM (2012) Designing Case Studies: Explanatory Approaches in Small-N Research. Basingstoke/New York: Palgrave MacMillan.
9.
BeynonJDusuA (2010) Budget Support and MDG Performance. Brussels: European Commission, Development Paper No. 2010/01.
10.
BurnsideCDollarD (2000) Aid, policies and growth. American Economic Review90(4): 847–68.
11.
ClemensMBazziS (2009) Blunt instruments: on establishing the causes of economic growth. Working Paper 171. Washington: Center for Global Development.
12.
CollierPGuillaumontPGuillaumontSGunningJW (1997) Redesigning conditionality. World Development25(9): 1399–407.
13.
CordellaTDell’ AricciaG (2003) Budget support versus project aid. IMF Working Paper No. WP/03/88. Washington: IMF.
14.
De KempAFaustJLeidererS (2011) Between high expectations and reality: an evaluation of budget support in Zambia. IOB Evaluation No. 356. Bonn/The Hague/ Stockholm: BMZ/IOB/Sida.
15.
DollarDSvenssonJ (2000) What explains the success or failure of structural adjustment programs?The Economic Journal110: 894–917.
16.
DijkstraG (2013) Governance or poverty reduction? Assessing budget support in Nicaragua. Journal of Development Studies49(1): 110–24.
17.
DijkstraGGrigsbyA (2010) Evaluation of general budget support to Nicaragua. IOB Evaluation No.329. The Hague: IOB, Ministry of Foreign Affairs, Netherlands.
18.
DoucouliagosHPaldamM (2008) Aid effectiveness on growth: a meta study. European Journal of Political Economy24: 1–24.
19.
DRN (2011) Evaluation of Budget Support Operations of the European Commission in Tunisia between 1996 and 2008. Brussels: DRN.
20.
EasterlyW (2003) Can foreign aid buy growth?Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association17(3): 23–48.
21.
ElbersCGunningJWde HoopK (2009) Assessing sector-wide programs with statistical impact evaluation: a methodological proposal. World Development37: 513–20.
22.
ElbersCGunningJW (2010) A Note on the Macroeconomic effects of Aid in Zambia. Amsterdam: Amsterdam Institute for International Development.
23.
HaymanR (2011) Budget support and democracy: a twist in the conditionality tale. Third World Quarterly32(4): 673–88.
24.
IDD and Associates (2006) Evaluation of general budget support: synthesis report. Birmingham: International Development Department, School of Public Policy.
25.
IEG, Committee on Development Effectiveness (2010) Poverty reduction support credits: an evaluation of world bank support. Report No. CODE2009-0091. Washington: The World Bank.
26.
IOB (2012a) Budget support: conditional results: review of an instrument, 2000-2011. IOB Evaluation No. 369. The Hague: Ministry of Foreign Affairs.
27.
IOB (2012b) Case studies budget support: conditional results: review of an instrument, 2000-2011. IOB Evaluation No. 369. The Hague: Ministry of Foreign Affairs.
28.
KillickTGunatilakaRMarrA (1998) Aid and the Political Economy of Policy Change. London/New York: Routledge.
LawsonABoothDHardingAHooleDNascholdF (2002) General budget support evaluability study, phase 1. Final synthesis report. Oxford/London: Oxford Policy Management and Overseas Development Institute.
31.
LawsonABoothDMsuyaMWangweSWilliamsonT (2005) Does General Budget Support Work? Evidence from Tanzania. London: Overseas Development Institute.
LeeuwFL (2012) Linking theory-based evaluation and contribution analysis: three problems and a few solutions. Evaluation18(3): 348–63.
34.
LeeuwFLVaessenJ (2009) Impact Evaluation and Development: NONIE Guidance on Impact Evaluation. Washington: NONIE and World Bank.
35.
MasudNYontchevaB (2005) Does foreign aid reduce poverty? Empirical evidence from non-governmental and bilateral aid. IMF working Paper 05/100. Washington: IMF.
36.
MekashaTJTarpF (2013) Aid and growth, what meta-analysis reveals. Journal of Development Studies49(4): 564–83.
37.
MolenaersNCepinskasLJacobsB (2010) Budget support and policy/political Dialogue: donors practices in handling (political) crises. Discussion Paper No. 2010–06. Antwerp: University of Antwerp/IOB.
38.
MosleyP (1986) Aid effectiveness: the micro-macro paradox. IDS Bulletin17: 214–25.
39.
OuattaraBStroblE (2008) Aid, policy and growth: does aid modality matter?Review of World Economics144(2): 347–65.
40.
PawsonR (2002) Evidence-based policy: in search of a method. Evaluation8(2): 157–81.
41.
RajanRGSubramanianA (2008) Aid and growth: what does the cross-country evidence really show?The Review of Economics and Statistics90(4): 643–65.
42.
TempleJRW (2010) Aid and conditionality. In: RodrikDRosenzweigMR (eds), Handbook of Development Economics, Vol. 5. Amsterdam: Elsevier, 4415–523.
WhiteH (2010) A contribution to current debates on impact evaluation. Evaluation16(2): 153–64.
45.
WhiteHDijkstraG (2003) Programme Aid and Development: Beyond Conditionality. London: Routledge.
46.
World Bank (1998) Assessing Aid: What Works, What Doesn’t, and Why. Oxford/New York/Toronto: Oxford University Press for the World Bank.
Supplementary Material
Please find the following supplemental material available below.
For Open Access articles published under a Creative Commons License, all supplemental material carries the same license as the article it is associated with.
For non-Open Access articles published, all supplemental material carries a non-exclusive license, and permission requests for re-use of supplemental material or any part of supplemental material shall be sent directly to the copyright owner as specified in the copyright notice associated with the article.
